Future Bounty: The 2013 QB Draft Class

It’s never too early to look ahead, and when it comes to next year’s QB draft class it’s something NFL teams are surely doing already.   There are a number of factors that lend credence to the belief that this bunch can truly be special, and potentially rival the legendary 1983 class which included Elway/Kelly/Marino in addition to Todd Blackledge and Ken O’Brien in the first round:

1. The decision to return to school by 3 potential first rounders in this year’s draft.
2. Most of these guys are big, strong-armed types that NFL clubs fall in love with.
3. While some of them are featured in spread-option attacks, that transition is seen as a lesser hurdle than it was in the past (see Newton, Cam) and many of these prospects are actually being tutored in NFL-style systems, working quite a bit under center with pro-style reads.

Here’s a look at the group, starting with the seniors:

Matt Barkley, USC, 6′ 2″, 220 — Four year starter who runs the most NFL-Like system under Lane Kiffin.  Would have likely been a Top-5 pick this year.  Some concerns about his height as he may be a tad shorter than listed, but no questions about his leadership, accuracy, release, or ability to read defenses.  Ready to start day #1.

Landry Jones, Oklahoma, 6′ 4″, 229 — One of the most polarizing QB’s in the country.  Some see him as a Top-15 pick, including Jones himself, who claims he was given a first-round grade by the league’s advisory board before choosing to return for his senior season.  Has big-time arm talent but isn’t very athletic and his ability to play well under pressure has been questioned.  Some think he has bust written all over him. Threw 0 TD’s and 5 INT’s in last 3 games of season after Blake Bell took over in red zone a’ la Tim Tebow and ran for 8 scores.  Still, Jones threw for nearly 1,000 yards in those games, completing 60% of his passes.  He just didn’t get the red zone opportunities.  Chose to forgo his spring break this year to work with renowned QB guru George Whitfield instead.  Whitfield has mentored Newton and Andrew Luck and insists Jones can be in their class. 

Tyler Wilson, Arkansas, 6′ 3″, 220 — Another one who considered coming out but chose to play his senior year.  Some projections had him working himself into top half of first round had he declared.  Only one full year as starter after backing up Ryan Mallett his first two seasons.  Gunslinger type, makes plays on the run but has the arm and release to succeed in Bobby Petrino’s NFL-style attack as well.  Cocky kid who could rub some the wrong way but is seen as a leader by those in the program.

Geno Smith, West Virginia, 6′ 3″, 214 — One of the most intriguing guys in the class.  Appears to have all the tools to be an attractive NFL commodity.  Numbers skewed by Dana Holgorsen’s Mike Leach-inspired spread-option offense.  If you get a chance to see any West Virginia games this fall, do it.  Must-see-TV.

Those are the seniors, the ones we know are coming out.  The next group includes draft-eligible underclassmen, but they should all be thought of highly enough that they will at least consider coming out.  The  depth of the class may entice one of two to stay in school in hopes of improving their stock for 2014.

Tyler Bray, Tennessee, 6′ 6″, 210 (Junior) — One to watch.  I’ve seen this kid mocked as the 1st pick in the draft since he was signed out of high school.  Might have the biggest arm of the bunch and loves to go downfield.  Has room to fill out on his frame but moves well for a guy his size.  Works plenty from under center and looks every bit the part of NFL franchise QB.  I’d be shocked if he doesn’t declare.

Logan Thomas, Virginia Tech, 6′ 6″, 254 (Redshirt Jr.) — Has drawn Cam Newton comparisons for his combination of sheer size, athletic ability and arm talent.  In first year as starter, improved dramatically as the 2011 season progressed.  May have the highest ceiling of them all.

Aaron Murray, Georgia, 6′ 1″, 211, (RS Jr.) — Highly productive, smart player with quick release.  Questions about his arm strength but have seen him included in the potential first-round group.  Because of the immense physical attributes of the other QB’s in this class I could see him staying for his senior year, but if he does come out he could be in the late 1st/early 2nd round discussion. 

So there are 7 names of quarterbacks who should be first round prospects next year, with 6 of them possessing the potential to grade out in the top of the round.  Here’s how their career college stats stack up:

The depth and overall talent level of this class could significantly impact how teams approach the draft later this month.   A team like Seattle, for instance, may have felt more comfortable committing short term to a mid-ceiling guy like Matt Flynn knowing that they could still get a potential franchise QB next year in the middle-to-late 1st round.  If you’re a fan of the Browns, Dolphins or Jags, don’t be discouraged if your team passes on Ryan Tannehill, or doesn’t take a quarterback in the first few rounds.  It may not mean they are committing the future to the likes of Colt McCoy and Blaine Gabbart, they may simply have their eye on a sexier prize next year.

Ever since Barkley made his decision, the consensus is that he’s likely the top pick in the draft next year, but I submit that he may ultimately be overtaken for that honor after teams begin to over-analyze him, and fall in love with the superior physical skills that Bray, Smith and Thomas posess.

In the meantime, it’s going to make a ton of excitement in the college game in 2012.

Other possible late risers, high-round QB’s: Keith Price (Washington), Mike Glennon (NC State), Jeff Tuel (Washington St.), Danny O’Brien (Wisconsin)