Trade Tebow? The Value is Just Not There

Now that the Denver Broncos will sign Peyton Manning to a lucrative contract that could approach nearly 20  million dollars a year the Trade Tebow Speculation Fire has been ignited. The question now is can the Denver Broncos and Tim Tebow Co-exist. Despite John Elway’s constant reiterations otherwise that he believed in Tim Tebow, it was clear from the onset that Elway did not believe in Tim Tebow. With the Peyton Manning signing it ensures that Tim Tebow won’t be getting off the bench in Denver, and if Manning stays healthy he likely will not start another game before his rookie contract runs out and he is unceremoniously released.

Broncos fans will want the team to trade Tebow, but the question is what kind of value is out there for Tebow? Not much. The most obvious connecting spot with Tim Tebow is for him to go the Miami Dolphins who are looking for a way to excite a fanbase, but they are already interested in Alex Smith and might be willing to pay more for Smith than the 49ers will be. In the event that they don’t sign Smith they could be the only suitors for Tebow.

The Cardinals will move forward with Kolb and Skelton. The Titans have Jake Locker in the mix. The NFC East is set as is the NFC North. The Seahawks desperate for a quarterback signed Matt Flynn. The only logical landing spot for Tebow is Miami, which hurts the Broncos.

I’m of the firm belief that NFL personnel men don’t view Tebow highly and do not believe he is a starting quarterback. Neither do a lot of players in the league. There will be players who call Tebow a winner, but just look at some of the comments directed at Tebow after the game things akin to “not bad for a Running back”. These are not a ringing endorsement. Tebow had made his teammates believers, but players from other teams? Much fewer and further in between. To me Tebow’s trade value is about a 5th rounder right now, if that, would Elway and Xanders move him for that value? That could really anger Broncos fans.

You could assume that Manning does not want to be in Denver with Tebow Mania there, with Tebow looking over his shoulder. Tebow’s supporter can be loud and while I don’t think they would over-react to a bad game or two, if Manning start the first five or six games slowly would he hear “Play Tebow chants?” I think the Broncos will consider moving him, but find the market much more barren than they would hope.  Tebow supporters will disagree with me. But the Broncos have no leverage heading into the free agency market because there is only one clearly Quarterback needy team right now-the Miami Dolphins. The Miami Dolphins with new head coach Joe Philbin, unfortunately  are probably the worst offensive system fit in the league for Tebow. This is a quick, precision passing game. Tebow has a lot of strengths as a player, but that is not one of them. There aren’t a lot of NFL Front office guys they  see Tebow as the answer, including the front office men in Denver-think of it this way. If Tebow WAS the answer why would the front office have continuously flirted with other options since Tebow arrived?

You can argue that the Jaguars need him from a business perspective and that they are also a QB needy team, but they will move forward with Henne and Gabbert. The Browns, like the Dolphins, are a terrible system fit for Tebow. The Broncos, with a defensive minded head coach, were okay building their offense around Tebow, but the Browns and Packers are too offensive minded coaches. Coaches like “their systems”. I don’t see Tebow as a realistic option.

The Broncos will look to trade Tebow, that much is obvious. Elway clearly wants to be ridden of what he seems to consider a burden, but at what price? Would they consider moving Tebow to a different position? And if that’s the case who else might be interested. Tebow, as a non-quarterback football player seems like a perfect fit for the New England Patriots-would they consider him?

Broncos fans will want to move Tebow and the Broncos probably will, but those who are banking on a first or 2nd round pick back in return for Tebow I believe are mistaken. Perhaps the Dolphins feel that Tebow will give them some punch and the owner will over-rule Ireland and Philbin. The question for the Broncos how much will the Broncos hold out for Tebow, and if not how do they deal with the aftermath for giving Tebow away for peanuts.

Disagree with me leave a comment, or contact me on twitter @NFLmocks

Update: Right after I posted this Profootballtalk came out with this: