Is Justin Blackmon Overrated?
By Bo Martin
Justin Blackmon is widely considered the best wide receiver in this class. He possesses great strength and catching ability. Statistically, Blackmon is off the charts and has been the best receiver in college football the last two years. However, these stats can be skewed; just because Blackmon is the best in college doesn’t mean he’s going to be the best choice in the NFL draft. See there is a such a different level of talent in college that it’s really hard to get a 100% accurate reading on how a player is going to translate into the NFL.
I’ve compiled a list of first round receivers in the last 6 years and this is what I’ve come up with:
2011-AJ Green (4th overall), Julio Jones (6th overall)
2010-Demariyus Thomas (22nd overall), Dez Bryant (24th overall)
2009-Darrius Heyward-Bey(7th overall), Michael Crabtree (10th overall)
2008-None taken in first round
2007-Calvin Johnson (2nd overall), Ted Ginn Jr.(9th overall)
2006-Santonio Holmes (25th overall)
Now, these players were considered some of the best coming out of college and if I were to break them down into to tiers of production it would look like this:
Elite:
Calvin Johnson
Elite Potential:
Dez Bryant
AJ Green
Demariyus Thomas
Great Potential:
Julio Jones
Solid:
Santonio Holmes
“Man, he’d be good if he could figure it out”:
Michael Crabtree
What happened?
Darrius Heyward-Bey
Ted Ginn Jr
Looking at that list isn’t discouraging but still, it all has to do with situation. Do you think Calvin Johnson would have been as dominant if the Raiders chose him instead of JaMarcus Russell? Who knows for sure. The thing is that you can never be sure what a receiver is going to do in the next level and it’s often dictated by what team chooses you.
Back to Blackmon, Blackmon is comparable to some of the elite potential receivers on that board. Blackmon, however, is not those receivers; he lacks one key attribute, speed. The receiver Blackmon is most compared to WR Dez Bryant of the Dallas Cowboys. I see a likeness between them when it comes to physical ability but in all the tape I watch Blackmon is not able to burst off the line and get separation from defensive backs.
Blackmon has made a career out of punishing smaller, lower caliber cornerbacks in the Pac-12 and that may have inflated his stock some. There is no doubt that Blackmon is going to be an NFL receiver who is productive. My concern comes when teams draft him with the purpose of being a featured receiver. The majority of Blackmon’s game is played within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. He can make plays in the open field because of his strength and field vision, but he isn’t a threat as a deep play receiver and might find most of his success in the possession receiver role.
I’m not a draft expert but I will say this, if Blackmon doesn’t put on a convincing display during speed drills at the combine/pro-days than I would stay away from him with a top 5 or maybe 10 pick. There is a very good chance I’m wrong but there are too many sure bets in this draft and Blackmon truly is not one of them.