5 Teams that missed the playoffs but will make it in 2012 and their draft needs

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5. Carolina Panthers 2011 record (6-10) projected 2012 record (9-7)

I am going out on a limb on this selection more than any other on this list. But now that Cam Newton has officially had one of the, if not the greatest season a rookie quarterback has ever had, it makes it a little bit easier.

The Panthers had the 3rd best rushing offense in the NFL last season averaging 150.5 yards a game, now pair that with the 13th best passing average in the league at 239.3 yards a game and you have a team that can move the ball. Not to mention all of this offense was generated by a rookie who missed out on OTA’s and most of training camp because of the lockout. Carolina also had 5 losses last season by 7 points or less and another loss by 8 points, this tells you that as long as this young team stays hungry they are one big play away from adding to their 6 wins from this past year.

Now for the reason why the Panthers lost so many of those close games last season. It’s never a good sign for your team when your 24th ranked pass defense giving up 246.8 yards a game holds the highest ranking on the team, the Panthers also had the 25th ranked rush defense as well giving up 130.8 yards a game. That all adds up to giving up too many yards and the 28th ranked total defense in the NFL last season and unless your named Rodgers or Brady it’s hard to carry that on offense.

The Panthers will pick either 8th or 9th in the 2012 draft depending upon the outcome of a coin flip. Having already given up their 3rd round pick to acquire Greg Olsen before last season they have only 6 total picks in this years draft. I think the Panthers will try to address their second receiver need through free agency. Unless they find themselves in a best player available situation, I see only one direction for the Panthers to go in the draft and that is on the defensive side of the ball. Cam has shown he can carry a mediocre offense but that doesn’t matter if the defense can’t stop anyone.

Projected first round pick: Devon Still, DT, Penn State

Projected second round pick: Chase Minnifield, CB, Virginia

4. New York Jets 2011 record (8-8) projected 2012 record (10-6)

To say that the New York Jets season ended in disappointment would be an understatement. After advancing to consecutive AFC championship games in 09′ and 10′, the J-E-T-S, Jets took a big step back in 2011 by failing to make the playoffs entirely.

Mark Sanchez has taken a lot of heat in his third season and some of it has been rightfully so, however in a recent comparison Sanchez’s stats this year (his third in the NFL) and Eli Manning’s third year in the NFL (2006) matched up quite favorably for the USC grad. All that being said this year’s offensive numbers for New York were horrendous, the Jets ranked 22nd on the ground and 21st in the NFL with 206.1 yards per game through the air. Shonn Greene hasn’t quite lived up to what the Jets thought he would when they took him out of Iowa in the 3rd round of the 2009 draft, however with the thought that LaDainian Tomlinson will be retiring, Greene looks to become more of the feature back in New York.

On the Defensive side of the ball the Jets have been one of the most consistent teams since Rex Ryan took over 3 years ago. They finished 5th in total defense in the NFL this year giving up 312.1 yards per game. However this is slightly misinforming when you look at the fact that the Jets were 20th in scoring defense giving up 22.7 points a game. This can be tied to the fact that the Jets had a minus 3 turnover to take away ratio (the first time in Rex’s 3 years there they have finished minus) and dealt with a lot of short fields to defend.

The Jet’s hold the 16th pick in the draft this year and have more needs than they know what to do with. While the teams defense has been it’s strength the last few season it still wouldn’t be out question for them to spend their first round pick to shore up their outside pass rush. However with the Santonio Holmes fiasco at the end of the year and with the questions with their personnel on the offensive side it wouldn’t surprise me to see them go with the best player available with their first pick.

Projected first round pick: Alshon Jeffery, WR, South Carolina

Projected second round pick: Vinny Curry, DE/OLB, Marshall

3. Tennessee Titans 2011 record (9-7) projected 2012 record (9-7)

The Tennessee Titans faced major changes going into the 2011 season and many people thought they would struggle with a new coach and a new quarterback and no offseason. So many people were surprised to see them sitting even in week 10 at 5-5 and they didn’t stop there winning 4 of their final 6 games. The Titans narrowly missed the playoffs to a tiebreaker with the Cincinnati Bengals.

For the last couple of seasons one thing has been synonymous with the Titans offense and that has been Chris Johnson (formerly of the 2k variety). While most people remember the 2009 season for the 2,006 yard performance, that was the only season in the last 4 that they even ranked in the top 10 in total rushing yards in a season. This season the Titans averaged 89.9 rushing yards a game, good for 31st in the NFL. Overall the offense was ranked 17th in the league averaging just over 335 yards a game, but most of that ranking was thanks to Matt Hasselbeck and the 12th ranked pass offense in the league with 245.2 yards a game. While the return of Kenny Britt will be a great help to the offense, we will have to wait and see if he is close to the form he was at the time of his injury.

Tennessee was an average defensive team in 2011, sending out the 18th ranked unit giving up 355.1 yards a game. The thing that actually sticks out when you look at the Titans games from this year and in particular their loses, is that the defense actually kept them all but two games (Pittsburgh week 5 and Houston week 7). Cortland Finnegan has turned into one of the best cover men in the league, even for an undersized corner (5-10, 188) pair that with second year man out of UCLA Alterraun Verner and third year man Jason McCourty from Rutgers and the Titans have one of the best corner trios in the league. The drafting of Akeem Ayers in the second round last year will certainly help with putting pressure on opposing quarterbacks something that was lacking from this years defense. Tennessee had only two players rank in the top 100 in sacks for the year (DT Karl Klug, 7.0, DE Dave Ball, 4.0 ) and the defensive end position only managed 7.5 sacks all year, good for last in the league from that position.

I believe the focus in the first couple of rounds for the Tennessee Titans will be both offensive and defensive lines. Having the 20th pick in the draft is not usually looked at as a good place to be, however with the depth at both offensive and defensive lines in the first two rounds of this year’s draft they are sitting in a good spot to have one of the top defensive ends or o-line prospects fall to them without having to maneuver. I believe they will address the running back position but it will be in the mid to later rounds maybe with the likes of Boise State’s Doug Martin. And with Chris Hope entering his 11th season in the league next year I look for them to try to pick up some safety help somewhere in the later rounds as well.

Projected first round pick: Melvin Ingram, DE, South Carolina

Projected second round pick: Kevin Zeitler, G, Wisconsin

2. San Diego Chargers 2011 record (8-8) projected 2012 record (10-6)

The Chargers missed the playoffs for the second straight year in 2011 and no doubt they will look to get back to their 2004-09′ form, when they reached the playoffs 5 straight seasons. There was speculation this offseason that Norv Turner would not be retained by General Manager A.J. Smith but he will be back for his 6th season as the head coach next year.

The offense was the bright spot for San Diego last season, they ranked 6th in total yards per game with a 393.1 average as well as 6th in total points at 25.4 per game. They traded up a couple of years ago to get Ryan Matthews in the first round and he’s paired with Mike Tolbert the last couple of seasons to combine for 32 rushing touchdowns. Everyone knows what Philip Rivers brings to the table, even after having one of his most inconsistent statistical seasons he’s still a legitimate top 10 quarterback in the NFL. Rivers threw for 4,624 yards this past season the second highest of his career, however he set a personal record with 27 turnovers, including 20 interceptions. The main question mark on the offensive side of the ball will be if they bring back Vincent Jackson and Malcom Floyd both of whom are free agents.

On the defensive side of the ball San Diego has been trying to find a consistent pass rush since Shawn Merriman’s third year in the league (2007). They have spent 8 draft picks in the last two years on the defensive side of the ball and have yet to find an impact player at any position. San Diego’s secondary is probably the defense’s strength if there is one, with safety Eric Weddle and his great ball hawking skills (7 int’s in 2011) leading the way. Quentin Jammer and Antoine Cason are good corners and last year the Chargers drafted Marcus Gilchrist out of Clemson who should push for playing time next season.

With the 18th overall pick in the draft, the Chargers find themselves in a similar situation to the Tennessee Titans. They need line help on both sides of the ball in what I see as a relatively deep offensive and defensive line class. While I mainly see them drafting on the lines and some outside back help it also wouldn’t surprise me if they picked up a wide receiver in the mid to late rounds to develop as Vincent Jackson and Malcom Floyd get older (7th and 6th years in the league respectively).

Projected first round pick: Nick Perry, DE/LB, Southern California

Projected second round pick: Nate Potter, OT, Boise State

1. Chicago Bears 2011 record (8-8) projected 2012 record (11-5)

If the Carolina Panther’s selection was my hardest on the list then this would have to have been the easiest one. Let’s add it up, 1 season removed from the NFC championship game, perennial top 10 defense, top 10 quarterback and perhaps the greatest return man in NFL history and not to mention running back Matt Forte was leading the NFL in yards from scrimmage when he was hurt in week 13 and the Bears are an easy choice for this list. There will be a few questions during the offseason, a new offensive coordinator, quarterback coach and GM after the team recently relieved Jerry Angelo of his services.

Despite having no true elite target to throw to, before his injury Jay Cutler was averaging nearly 230 yards per game. Unfortunately for Bear’s fans last season was a tale of two halves, the good Jay Cutler half and the oh so bad Caleb Hanie half. After starting in place for the injured Cutler (broken thumb) in week 12 Hanie proceeded to throw for just over 100 yards a game, and turn a five game win streak into a five game losing one. However the other bright spot for Chicago’s offense was the play of Matt Forte, who before he was injured in week 13 (sprained MCL) was on pace to lead the league in yards from scrimmage. If there is one positive to take from the Forte injury, it’s the emergence of Kahlil Bell the 3rd year running back from UCLA, who took over for Forte and led the rushing attack the final 5 weeks to the tune of 135 yards a game.

The Bears defense is traditionally it’s strength and that was no different this past season. One of the team’s strength on the defensive side is their relentless pursuit to the ball led by linebackers Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs, who team up to create one of the top linebacking duo’s in the league. Julius Peppers continues to produce for the Bears (11 sacks, 2FF in 2011) despite not having another elite pass rusher opposite him to draw away some of the constant double teams and chips that he faces, if Chicago picks up one of the top flight pass rushers coming out in this year’s draft, then we might actually see Peppers numbers get better and that’s a scary thought for the rest of the NFC North. The Bears rush D ranked 5th in the league giving up 96.4 yards a game which is something they would like to maintain next season, one thing that has to change however is the 28th ranked pass defense and the 254.1 yards per game that unit was allowing to opposing teams.

The Chicago Bears hold the 19th pick in this year’s draft and I can see them going a couple of ways depending on how the picks play out in front of them. The top needs are in the secondary at the corner and safety positions where they would like to improve upon that 28th ranked unit and at the wide receiver position where they would like to surround Jay Cutler with some more targets to help him stretch the field. It will be interesting to see the direction the new GM takes the club in the draft after previous GM Jerry Angelo was fired for what many thought was his failure to address the Bears needs in the draft. Whoever the new general manager is they will need to work out contracts with Matt Forte and Lance Briggs, bring in a big target or two for Jay Cutler and shore up the secondary. If they do all this and Brian Urlacher returns to his normal form after that freak last game of the season injury, the Bears are definitely primed to return to the playoffs and beyond in 2012.

Projected first round pick: Alfonzo Dennard, CB, Nebraska

Projected second round pick: Dwight Jones, WR, North Carolina

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