NFL Picks vs the Spread Divisional Round Playoffs

After a season long of success in my NFL picks vs the spread I came out flat the opening weekend of the playoffs. I was worried about the Atlanta Falcons balanced offense so I picked them to upset the Giants (which of course they didn’t). I also liked the Bengals out-right. Though I did get the Broncos game right, I also missed on the Lions game. 1-3 is terrible. I’ll do better this week.

Denver at New England

Opening at Denver +13.5

I like New England here at home against the Denver Broncos, but the Patriots are opening up as almost two touchdown favorites. The Patriots haven’t won a playoff game since the A.F.C. Championship game in 2007 and are needing a win. The Denver Broncos are playing with house money right now, no one expected them to win at home vs Pittsburgh and no one expects them to win this game either, which is why at the opening they are a whopping 13.5 point underdogs. I’m going to take the Patriots to win this game, but the Broncos to cover the spread. If Tebow plays half as well as he did vs Pittsburgh the Broncos should score enough points to stay close to the Patriots though I’d admit I’d be surprised if they won outright.

New Orleans at San Francisco

San Francisco +3.5 points is the opening line.

This game is the toughest game to pick for me in this week. The New Saints are unbeatable at home, but average nearly twenty less points per game on the road (which is still in the 20’s). They are not the same team on the road. The Saints also haven’t faced a defense as good and as physical as the 49ers this year, the only defense in the N.F.L. (besides the way the Giants are playing right now) that can impose their will on your offense seemingly no matter how you play. I like the 49ers here to cover the spread as of today. Tough game to choose though, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if the Saints won by more than a touchdown, they are very talented.

Houston at Balimore

Houston opening at +7.5 points

Has Vegas watched this Baltimore Ravens team play this year? I can’t believe they are basically 8 point favorites against Houston. Houston has a powerful run game and a really good defense. The Ravens are the same. The Ravens have a better quarterback, but I think Flacco is one of the more overrated signal callers in the league. I don’t see the Ravens being able to stretch the field in this game and I think they will struggle to score points. On the other side the situation is similar. Andre Johnson is better than whoever the Ravens are going to try to cover him with, but I don’t trust T.J. Yates to play well. I think this could be an ugly game with low scoring, too many turnovers, and maybe a special teams touchdown. I’ll take the Texans to cover the spread. The Ravens have been very good against good teams this year and bad vs bad teams which gives me a little pause but I don’t trust them to cover 7.5 points on anybody this year.

New York Giants at Green Bay Packers

Giants are opening up +8.5 points.

Wow, this is surprising to me. The Giants have been playing much better the last month of the season the Packers have been well still Packer like. When they two played earlier in the season the Packers won a last second field goal. Since then the Giants defense has been 10X better than it was previously. Over the last three games the Giants defense has given up a combined 30 points as their Defensive line has really come to life.

The Giants are drawing a lot of comparisons to the 2007 team which is really unfair to me (just like the way people are so polarized on Tebow), and I don’t think you can fairly expect the Giants to go into Green Bay and win this game, but cover 8.5 points? I think that’s possible. The Giants can score on the Packers and the Packers can score on the Giants, but only one of these defenses has shown any ability to stop teams at least some times this year and that’s the Giants. The Packers rely on turnovers and if they don’t get them Sunday, they are not winning by more than 8 points. I’ll take the Giants to cover this spread.

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