New York Giants vs Atlanta Falcons Tale of the Tape

Tomorrow the New York Giants will take on the Atlanta Falcons in what is the most anticipated game of the weekend because of the heavy favorites of the other Lions-Saints game, and Steelers-Broncos game and because no one is excited about watching two rookie quarterbacks face off against good opposing defenses.

Matt Ryan has not won a playoff game in his young illustrious career while Eli Manning and the Giants haven’t won a playoff game since the Superbowl victory in the 2007 season, they have also only been in one other playoff game (a home loss to the Eagles in 2008) since that game.

Both teams should come out firing.

This game has had a little bit of trash talk leading up to the game, but nothing major. Justin Tuck has said the Falcons offensive line has a reputation of being dirty, while Roddy White has said Victor Cruz is basically in for a rude awakening when teams start double covering him. Other than that the game will be played on the field, the Giants enter the game as slight (3 point) home favorites, with home teams usually getting a three point advantage in Vegas, this is as close as they come.

Quarterback

Both quarterbacks have had great seasons posting over 4,000 yards and having good Touchdown to Interceptions ratios. However, only one quarterback is a Superbowl Winning M.V.P. Matt Ryan may prove to have a better career than Eli Manning, but at this point it the advantage goes to Manning.

Running back

The Giants running game has had numerous problems this season and has had easily the worst production from the position in Tom Coughlin’s tenure as New York Giants head coach. Bradshaw is averaging 3.9 yards per carry, Jacobs is averaging 3.8 and D.J. Ware is averaging 3.5 yards per carry. The Falcons though are in a similar situation with Turner the only Running back producing significantly positive rushing yardage 1340 yards at 4.5 yards per carry. I like Rodgers and Snelling is okay. I think the Giants run more depth at you while the Falcons are better at the top.

What the Giants have done better than the Falcons running backs is score touchdowns. The Giants have a combined 20 rushing and receiving touchdowns from their backfield tandem on the season while the Falcons only have 14. Giants have the edge in receiving as well.

Advantage:

Michael Turner and the Falcons. The Giants run game can’t get yards in short yardage sitauations. I think no one would be surprised if the Giants RB had big games at any point because they are talented, but to say the production has been poor or inconsistent would be more than fair.

Offensive line:

Both teams lines have been worse than their straight numbers would indicate. The poor play of the Giants offensive line has made Eli Manning a better QB. Let me explain. He’s had to move around in the pocket this year so much more than in year’s past because the line has been a sieve at times that it’s expanded his game. Matt Ryan gets the ball out quickly and also does a good job of avoiding pressure. Ryan has taken two less sacks than Eli, and I trust the Falcons line to run block more as well.

Advantage:

In a vacuum the Falcons OL. The problem of course is that the Falcons OL will be blocking the Giants DL and vice versa.

Wide Receivers

This is the real strength of each offense. Each team runs deep with wide receivers and each teams wide receiver corps has tremendous production. In this category I’m not including tight ends.

The Falcons overall receiver production breaks down like this:

2851 yards receiving (White: 1296, Jones 959, Douglas 498, Weems 90, Mike Cox 8 (and what a terrible name fyi)

And 16 touchdowns (8 each for Jones and White)

The Giants:

3439 yards receiving (Cruz: 1536, Nicks 1192, Manningham 523, Barden 94, Hixon 50 (on the IR), Devin Thomas 37, Brandon Stokey 7 (no longer with team).

The Giants have 21 receiving touchdowns (9 for Cruz, 7 for Nicks, 4 Manningham, 1 Hixon)

Advantage:

Giants slightly: It’s so close at #1 and #2. White has the better track record than Cruz, Cruz has had the better year. Nicks and Jones are both immensely talented and physical wide receivers. I think Mario Manningham and the Giants depth though is much better than the Falcons, though Douglas is a nice player.

Defense Line:

John Abraham can rush the passer, but he isn’t Jason Pierre Paul. The Giants will also run at you Osi Umeinyora, Justin Tuck, Chris Canty, Linval Joseph, Mathias Kiwanuka, Dave Tollefson (5 sacks on the year), and Rocky Bernard.

The Falcons Defensive line isn’t anything spectaular.

Advantage: Giants by a very wide margin.

Linebacker Unit:

The Giants have a lot of young talent at the linebacker position. And for those of you who don’t follow the Giants much, Giants Rookie Linebacker Jacquian Williams is probably the X-factor in this game. He has a terrific athlete who for much of the season was inches short from making a lot of plays, plays that he’s started making the past few weeks. He has 78 tackles on the year and in the past two weeks 13 tackles and a sack. He’s coming along nicely.

With that being said the Giants best LB is former Falcons LB Michael Boley who is also fast and covers well, but can be run at. Mathias Kiwanuka is getting comftorable at the linebacker position and is really playing well as of late.

The Falcons have more talent at the position with last year’s first round Pick Sean Weatherspoon who has come along very nicely. He had 114 tackles on the season. Curtis Lofton has a whopping 147 tackles (whopping for someone who follows the Giants and hasn’t seen that kind of production in ages). It appears that Stephen Nicholas will not play, which is a big blow to the Falcons.

Advantage:
Falcons linebackers. If the Giants could take the Falcons linebackers and combine it with their defensive line it would make for a very good defense.

Secondary

I’m going to do the entire secondary. I think the best coverage guy on either team is Falcons Cornerback Brent Crimes. The biggest name on either team might be Dunta Robinson who can share the same plane with Aaron Ross as far as I’m concerned (former first round picks who are not playing like first round picks on the field this season). Ross is too inconsistent.

Corey Webster is a good cornerback who is making a lot of plays on the football this year with 6 interceptions. The Falcons don’t get a ton of picks from their Cornerbacks, but they do get them from their safeties.

The Giants have had to use Antrel Rolle has the nickel cornerback and he’s been up and down there and they plugged Deon Grant in at safety.Kenny Phillips has had a really under-appreciated season. He has 4 interceptions and 82 tackles and is playing worthy of his late first round selection he got in 2008.

Advantage: Do I have to pick one?

I think the Giants are more talented in the secondary I suppose. I think when healthy the Giants would have better safeties with Rolle and Phillips, though DeCoud and Moore have really come on strong here early in their careers and I think the Giants depth is more talented than the Falcons depth, but the Giants aren’t healthy and are playing out of position a lot. Deon Grant is smart, but his age has really caught up with him. I’ll say Falcons because they are giving up less yards per game this year, though I don’t expect a big day from either unit today.

Special teams:

I haven’t watched enough of the Falcons to know with confidence how good their special teams are. But I have watched enough Giants to know that when the Giants special teams plays to their best it is an average unit. They can cover kick off and punts fairly well (and their punter is having a terrific season), but their return games are brutal. They avearge 6.1 yards per return which is awful.

Advantage:

Falcons by default. Based on numbers the Giants are better at covering Kicks (they do a good job of that actually), but the Falcons are better at returning kicks and covering punts. Their punter doesn’t have as much distance as Weatherford, does this year, but has done as good a job pinning opponets inside the twenty. The Falcons might make a big play (positive) in the game, the Giants are hoping to not give up a big play.

Coaching:

Tom Coughlin has the ring and loads more playoff experience. Advantage Giants.

Prediction:

I might be a pessimist, but I think the Giants don’t match up well with the Falcons here. The Giants haven’t shown me once this year that they can stop a balanced offense, which the Falcons clearly have. I also think the Giants do a better job throwing the ball against teams that want to play heavy man because they love to take shots down the field. Manning can get a bit impatient if he has to go up the field the long way.

The biggest thing that worries me is how fast the Falcons star games. It’ll be tough for the Giants to make a comeback on this team with their powerful run game likewise if the Giants enter the fourth quarter up 10 it could be a real long day for Matt Ryan who won’t have enough time to deliver the ball to his wide receivers if the pass rush is juice up.

I forgot to mention one position in the tale of the tale. Tight End. Huge Advantage Tony Gonzalez and the Falcons, though Jake Ballard is healthy and will play.

I think the Falcons win this in a fairly close game 28-21.

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