2012 NFL Playoffs – Wild Card Sunday Preview

Atlanta Falcons @ New York Giants

Sunday’s day game features two quarterbacks that are somewhere between mediocre and elite depending on the weather, the type of turf, what shoes they’re wearing and whatever is happening with El Nino.  Atlanta’s offense, despite the cheap tag that various Giants’ lineman have given them, seem to be the more consistent offense, with two legitimate threats in Roddy White and Julio Jones as well as a grinder between the tackles in Michael Turner. The man distributing them the ball is Matt Ryan, who has been better at home than on the road (as usual). His opposite number, Eli “Stop talking about my brother” Manning, has seen his completion percentage drop and interception rate rise as the season progresses and he’ll be facing a Falcons secondary that features Brent Grimes and Dunta Robinson. Manning has no shortage of weapons, with a two-back set that can occasionally wreak havoc in Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs as well as wide receivers Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz. With Mario Manningham returning from an injury, look for Manning to exploit numerous matchup problems created by Big Blue’s array of playmakers.

The Giants’ defensive line is a star studded cast that will bring pressure from all angles. Led by Justin Tuck and Jason Pierre-Paul, the New York defense has combined to sack the quarterback 48 times this year. The Falcons D-line hasn’t done as well as billed, with Ray Edwards being a non-factor for the better part of the year and John Abraham showing his age. While they haven’t brought pressure on the passer as well as they were supposed to, the Falcons have done well stopping the run, and with neither Bradshaw nor Jacobs a sure thing to have a big game, Manning will be forced to make big throws throughout the course of the game. This game will come down to which team is able to get the most pressure on their opposing quarterback, and the Giants are certainly equipped to do that. I think the Giants will win a close one, but I wouldn’t recommend taking either side of the line because (a) Eli is a flaky quarterback and (b)Ryan can’t yet be trusted to dominate on the road.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos 

Somehow, Denver made it to the postseason and somehow they seem to have an avenue to success. Pittsburgh has been really banged up on both sides of the ball. Offensively, Big Ben is still extremely gimpy due to a lingering ankle injury, Rashard Mendenhall has been placed on IR after tearing his ACL and most recently center Maurkice Pouncey has been ruled out, also with an ankle injury. On the orange and blue side of the field, Brian Dawkins and Chris Kuper are definitely out, with fullback Spencer Larsen and cornerback Jonathan Wilhite also doubtful to participate. The Broncos are of course helmed by the one and only Timothy Tebow, whose legendary mediocrity has propelled softly lobbed Denver into the playoffs. The Broncos do feature the number one running game in the NFL, with Willis McGahee and the aforementioned Tebow as the prime suspects, but with Kuper’s injury it remains to be seen how effective this attack will continue to be. The Broncos’ motley cast of receivers includes Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker, both boasting good size and speed but poor separation. Pittsburgh has two burners in Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown, but their effectiveness will be limited by the hobbled Roethlisberger. The Steelers’ running game is also a bit of an enigma with one starter out on the line and a cadre of running backs trying to fill Mendenhall’s cleats.

Defensively, there are no surprises from the Steelers’ save one. Per the usual, they have one of the best defenses in the NFL, but for this trip, leading tackler Ryan Clark will be taking a seat. Clark has the sickle cell trait, which led to complications on his last visit to the Mile High City and coach Mike Tomlin has decided not to risk it (it is just a game when all is said and done). The Broncos defense hasn’t been the same since rookie sensation Von Miller tore ligaments in his right hand, and while he’s been able to play with a cast on, he’s only had one sack since the injury. Elvis Dumervil has done his part, but a big part of what he does relies on Miller’s ability to get around the corner and vice versa. Champ Bailey is still the anchor of the secondary but there is precious little talent at safety. The Steelers, of course, retain the services of one Troy Polamalu, who is the definition of an X-factor. If the Broncos can contain the Steelers receivers they’ll have a good chance at pulling out the upset, but that’s a huge “if”, and despite their injuries, the Steelers should win this one. I would recommend BRONCOS (+8.5), as they’ve made a habit of keeping games close.