NFL Picks Week 16 vs The Spread

This page will host my picks for week 16 of the N.F.L. season. Week 15 was a crazy, crazy week. With playoff bound teams trying their best to stay home in January, as the Jets, Giants, and Titans had absolutely brutal performances that could cost each team the playoffs. But I can’t say I didn’t see a lot of the results heading into Monday Night’s game I’m 7-4-2, including my lock of the week (the Seahawks to win outright over the Bears). I have the 49ers as three point favorites, but have to see whether or not Big Ben is playing before I lock that pick in.

Over the last four weeks I’ve had three winning weeks and I’m hoping for another. I’ll pick all the games vs the spread and this is my primer. I’ll let you know how high I’m willing to go who I think will be the favorites, and I’ll post the opening lines early Monday morning.

For some draft reading check out our scouting report page (approaching 200 scouting reports)

Lines updated Wednesday December 22nd
Date & Time Favorite Spread Underdog
12/22 8:25 ET Houston -6 At Indianapolis
12/24 1:00 ET At Kansas City -1.5 Oakland
12/24 1:00 ET Denver -2.5 At Buffalo
12/24 1:00 ET At Tennessee -7.5 Jacksonville
12/24 1:00 ET At Cincinnati -4 Arizona
12/24 1:00 ET At New England -9.5 Miami
12/24 1:00 ET At Baltimore -13 Cleveland
12/24 1:00 ET At NY Jets -3 NY Giants
12/24 1:00 ET At Washington -6.5 Minnesota
12/24 1:00 ET At Carolina -7.5 Tampa Bay
12/24 1:00 ET At Pittsburgh -15.5 St. Louis
12/24 4:05 ET At Detroit -2.5 San Diego
12/24 4:15 ET San Francisco -2.5 At Seattle
12/24 4:15 ET At Dallas -2 Philadelphia
12/25 8:30 ET At Green Bay -13 Chicago

Monday Night Football Point Spread

12/26 8:35 ET At New Orleans -6.5 Atlanta
Texans at Colts

The Colts finally got their first win and the Texans are coming off a terrible loss. Even when Manning is healthy and the Colts are good, the Texans tend to stay close and I think they’ll win this game big. I’d give 8-10 points without hesitation…one caveat if Wade Phillips isn’t around again this week I might take the Colts if they have a lot of points.

Broncos at Bills

The Bills will probably only be a few point underdogs at home, but I think the Bills match up terribly with the Broncos. The Bills can’t stop the run and the Broncos can sure run the football. I think the Broncos could win by 10 points pretty easily here. The wheels have officially come off the Buffalo Bills bus. Fitzpatrick is doing just enough to give the Bills pause whether or not they should pursue another quarterback, at least you hope if you’re a Bills fan.

Dolphins at Patriots

The Patriots are coming off an impressive win against the Broncos, while the Dolphins continue to hum along. The Patriots are the better team, but the Dolphins should be able to keep this close. I like the Dolphins as underdogs here if they are getting about a touchdown. The Broncos had a good chance to give the Patriots a run for their money, but half way through the second quarter they got the dropsies and started fumbling the football all over the place, beating themselves and got too far behind to make this a close game.

Browns at Ravens

On cue, the Ravens play a bad game against the Chargers. This team is impossible to figure out, but at least they win enough games to get into the playoffs, unlike a team like the Giants who are trying their best to miss the playoffs. I think the Ravens could come back with a vengeance on the Browns, plus I don’t think the Browns have good enough quarterback play to overcome the Ravens plus defense. Ravens to cover anything 7 or under .

Raiders at Chiefs

This seems like a huge opportunity for a let-down from the Chiefs, but this is a game I really don’t have a great feel for this game though to be honest. I can’t get my pulse on the Raiders. The Raiders MUST win this game if they want any chance of making the playoffs. I’m not going to give an opinion on this game yet, but I think I’m leaning towards Raiders -3 to -4.

Vikings at Redskins

I think the Redskins will win this game outright. They have played pretty well recently. I also think they will open up at about three point favorites, which I’m comftorable taking. Bad Rex Grossman could always show up though which makes you nervous, but I think the Redskins defense is gelling.

Cardinals at Bengals:

Quick Pop Quiz. What is the Cardinals record in their last 7 games? 6-1. 6-1 in their last 7 games. With wins over the Eagles, Cowboys, and 49ers. This is one of the best teams in the league right now surprisingly. The Bengals are up and down, young and talented, but up and down. I like the Cardinals here, especially if they are underdogs as I expect they will be. I could see the Cardinals win this game outright.

Rams at Steelers

The Rams are awful. I don’t trust the Steelers as huge favorites though, especially with Big Ben’s high ankle sprain. I’m going to wait to see how well Big Ben plays (if he does) with his injury before I give an opinion on this game. If Ben plays bad I might like the Rams to cover a heavy point spread. The Rams showed more heart in their game Sunday than they have in awhile.

Buccaneers at Panthers

I like the Panthers here, but I’m interested to see how many points they are favored by. The Panthers are a 5-10 afterall. The Panthers have played a ton of close games, and the Buccaneers look disinterested now and I can’t see them getting up for this game.

Giants at Jets

These are two of the most disappointing teams in the league. I still think the Jets will make the playoffs and I don’t trust the Giants at all, but this is exactly the kind of game the Giants get up for. I’m really excited to watch the Giants Wide receivers against the Jets cornerbacks. All season long when teams have blitzed and left Hakeem Nicks and Cruz in single coverage they have got torched, but this is Darrel Revis against Hakeem Nicks. Should be a really exciting game. Leaning towards the Jets -3 here.

Jaguars at Titans

The Titans had a real opportunity with back to back games against the Colts and Jagaurs to make a real push to the playoffs. The question I have here for the Titans is why not let the season ride and die with Jake Locker now? He’s looked more impressive than Hasselbeck and the Titans should let Locker be in charge of everything when all their chips are in. The Titans have one of the best returns on the 2011 draft class thus far and look to have a bright future.

Chargers at Lions

This might be the game of the week. The Lions play the Packers in week 17 and the Chargers need to win out and get some help to get into the playoffs. Huge implications here. The Chargers, right now, are the team we all expected them to be at the beginning of the season and I think when they are at their best they are better than the Lions at their best. Philip Rivers is also an animal in December. I like the Chargers to win out-right here, we’ll see what the line is.

Eagles at Cowboys

Like the Chargers, the Eagles are now the team we thought they would be at the beginning of the season. And the Cowboys…well. I don’t see them winning this game. The Eagles speedy receivers give the Cowboys old (and not all that talented) secondary fits. I like the Eagles to win out-right here too.

49ers at Seahawks

The Seahawks are playing really well in their last seven games. The Seahawks are awful tough at home. I don’t think they’ll be favored at home and I like them as 4 point underdogs, but if they are favored I like the 49ers here, who are a better team.

Bears at Packers

Now that the pressure of going undefeated is off the Packers and they are playing at home, I expect a huge blowout. The awful part about this game is that it is the NBC prime-time game and on Christmas. Well hopefully I’ll be too distracted to watch this blowout. The Packers big. And if they can’t beat the Bears ( who are playing awfully now) big there might be more trouble in Green Bay than anyone’s thought all season.

Falcons at Saints

The Saints are a well oiled machine at home. The Falcons are playing better, well enough that I think the Falcons will push this line lower than it should be. The Saints, in New Orleans, I’d feel comftorable as 6 point favorites, if they are any less I’ll take them in an instant. I just don’t think the Falcons can come into New Orleans and beat the Saints this year though they did just that last year (27-24 early in the season the Falcons won). I think the Saints are littler better than they were last year and the Falcons aren’t quite as good.

What are some of your early thoughts on this game?

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