NFL Picks vs the Spread: Can Tebow and the Broncos Best Brady?

Want to win a giant bag of money? Be sure to bet against my picks!

I was on fire in weeks 12 and 13, but really cooled of in week 14, going 5-8 heading into the Sunday and Monday night games.

I don’t know if my picks will be better this week, but I think the games are much better to watch, that’s for sure!

A very busy pre-Christmas week led me to forget getting in the picks for the first two games of the week, but I have all of your Sunday and Monday night action for you.

Lines from Footballlocks and are current through Saturday night

Date & Time Favorite Spread Underdog
12/17 8:25 ET Dallas -7.5 At Tampa Bay
12/18 1:00 ET At NY Giants -6.5 Washington
12/18 1:00 ET Green Bay -13.5 At Kansas City
12/18 1:00 ET New Orleans -7.5 At Minnesota
12/18 1:00 ET At Chicago -3.5 Seattle
12/18 1:00 ET At Buffalo -2 Miami
12/18 1:00 ET At Houston -6 Carolina
12/18 1:00 ET Tennessee -6.5 At Indianapolis
12/18 1:00 ET Cincinnati -7 At St. Louis
12/18 4:05 ET Detroit -1 At Oakland
12/18 4:15 ET New England -7.5 At Denver
12/18 4:15 ET At Philadelphia -3 NY Jets
12/18 4:15 ET At Arizona -6.5 Cleveland
12/18 8:30 ET Baltimore -2.5 At San Diego

Monday Night Football Point Spread

12/19 8:35 ET At San Francisco -3 Pittsburgh

This was copy and posted from the original early this week with all the picks now locked in.

Jaguars at Falcons

The Jaguars just laid a whoop down on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. But even though the Falcons are in the same division these two teams are not in the same class. The Falcons are really clicking on all cylinders especially at home. I can’t see Blaine Gabbert traveling up to Atlanta and giving the Falcons a run for their money. I’ll probably be taking the Falcons pretty handidly here 10-13 points for sure, considering they can’t afford a let down with teams yipping at their heels for one of the wild card spots.

Didn’t get back in on time, though I would have taken Atalnta

Cowboys at Buccaneers

I’ll have to see the line. I can’t believe the Bucs are as bad as they played on Sunday against the Jaguars. The Cowboys have had trouble winning most games this season with a few exceptions (not the Rams game, for instance). I don’t think the Cowboys have done enough to convince me they should be double digit favorites, especially on the road. I’ll have to see where the line is, but I might take Tampa Bay here even though they have been terribly inconsistent, or just plain bad.

Didn’t get pick on time, good thing because I was leaning Tampa Bay

Bengals at Rams

The Bengals are seeing the playoffs slipping right through their fingers. This is one of the few “soft spots” on the schedule. They have to bring their A game right? The Rams strength is running the football with Steven Jackson, the Bengals have done a good job most of the year stopping the run. The Bengals also have enough weapon on offense to give the Rams trouble. I’m sensing a big victory here by the Bengals.

Bengals are -7 at St.Louis which is kind of hefty for a Bengals team that hasn’t won much lately, but I’m still going to take the Bengals to win by more than a touchdown

Bills at Dolphins

I was dead wrong about the Bills in week 14. I thought they had a puncher’s chance to upset the San Diego Chargers, but they didn’t play very well at all. This game’s line will depend on the availability of Matt Moore who left the game against the Eagles with an injury. IF he’s a no go, it’s down to J.P. Losman and I’ve seen him enough to know that if he’s playing the team should never be favored.

Uh Bills are favored by two. I was hoping I could take the Bills as the underdog here. I’m going to take the Bills one more time here to win by more than 2. J.P. Losman is awful

Titans at Colts

The Saints- were somehow able to bottle up Chris Johnson, but the Titans almost beat the Saints. This team (the Titans) has a lot of young talent. I think they’ll beat down the Colts, but their offense isn’t enough for me to take them -10 convincingly or anything. I’ll be leaning towards the Titans but I have to see the line. The Colts theoretically should be playing really hard these last few weeks to not go defeated. How the mighty have fallen.

Titans are more than 6.5 points better than the Colts. The Titans and Chris Johnson to run all over the Colts. Peyton Manning for M.V.P.

Redskins at Giants

The Giants are favored by 6.5 points. Why hasn’t anyone watched the Giants? They haven’t blown out a team all year and couldn’t even beat the Redskins in their first meeting. The Giants two biggest wins are 12 points vs the Rams and 13 points vs the Eagles. They Beat the Dolphins by three, Bills by three. Arizona by 4. Too many points for the Giants and their below average defense.

Redskins to cover the 6.5 points against the Giants

Saints at Vikings

This will be a blow-out. If Joe Webb or Christian Ponder is starting it doesn’t matter. The Saints aren’t as good on the road, but I don’t think that will apply to on the road in a dome. Greg Williams also will blitz, blitz, blitz some more which isn’t going to be a fun night for Webb or Ponder.

I’m going to take the Saints to win by more than 7.5 points against the Vikings in Minnesota.

Packers at Chiefs

This should also be a blowout. Nearly every week the Packers cover the huge spread, regardless of how large it is.I wouldn’t be surprised if this line opened up at 20, and I might take the Packers that high.

13.5 points in Kansas City with the Packers playing hard to go undefeated. Packers please.

Panthers at Texans

I love the Panthers all season as underdogs. If this line is Panthers -5 or higher I’m taking the Panthers unless some unforeseen injuries pop up. The Texans continue to win despite their injuries and I think that the Texans will score a good amount of points on the Panthers who have struggled to stop the run, but I love the Panthers as underdogs.

I love the Panthers as big underdogs here. I think they can stay within six. They play hard and they have a lot of playmakers, should be a pretty close game.

Seahawks at Bears

I think the Seahawks are an under-rated team. They are better than people think they are. The Bears season is spiraling out of control. I don’t know if I’d pick the Seahawks to win outright, especially traveling (I’d probably pick them outright at home), but I’m not comftorable with the Bears covering many points. This should be a really low scoring game, I think as well. I’d tak ea low under, I’ll be interested to see what the over/under opens up at for this game.

I think Seattle is going to win this game outright, never mind the fact that they are getting 3.5 points.

Lock of the week

Lions at Raiders

Raiders suck, but sometimes they are awesome. Who knows? This IS THE playoff game of the week. I think whatever team loses this game is probably not making the playoffs. The Raiders seem to do better at home than they do on the road and Darren Mcfadden might return here.

Detroit is favored by 1 point, but the Raiders aren’t playing well enough to make me concerned. Tshe Lions should be able to throw it all over the Raiders and beat them by more than one point. As a Michael Bush fantasy football owner, I’m rooting for a lot of rushing yards and touchdowns from Bush.

Jets at Eagles

Well I guess this is a big game too. The Jets are surging here and I think they’ll make the playoffs, but they can’t afford a loss here. If the Jets lose here they could miss the playoffs. They travel or stay home or whatever they do, they play the Giants in Jersey on Christmas eve. Luckily for the Jets, the Titans, Raiders and Bengals all lost on Sunday thrusting them ahead in the playoff race.

The Eagles are favored by three. Are the Eagles going to embrace the role of spoiler? I don’t think the Jets match up well with the Eagles. I could see Mark Sanchez having a very long day. I’ll take the Eagles to win by more than three points as they look to make a very late surge to get into the playoffs.

Browns at Cardinals

The Cardinals will be favored by three to five points here and they should be. The Browns aren’t very good and the Cardinals are playing much better football the last month. I like the Cardinals here. Their defense is really coming together and I don’t think the Browns can score many points on them.

Arizona -6.5. That’s a little too steep for me. I don’t trust the browns at all, but I can’t take the Cardinals as nearly touchdown favorites. Browns to cover the 6.5 spread though I’m confident the Cardinals win.

Patriots at Broncos

Do I dare go against Tim Tebow here? Siding with Tebow has worked out well for me. I’m not sure how the Broncos match up with the Patriots here though. The Patriots are awful against the Pass, but how will they fare against a mostly run team? I’ll have to see the line. I imagine the Patriots will be favored here, but by how much? 5 points? a touchdown?

my mind is telling me the Patriots will be up too much late for Tebow magic, but so far Tebow hasn’t let me down in these games too often. Broncos to cover the 7.5 points with hesitation. I wouldn’t advise betting this game

Ravens at Chargers

Just based on how things are shaping up the Chargers actually have an outside chance of making the playoffs if they win out. This is their biggest challenge remaining on the schedule. The Ravens also want this game because the Ravens, Texans, Patriots, and Steelers are all battling for the first round bye.

I don’t know how Rivers turns into Joe Montana in December but he does. I’m going to take the Chargers at home who are getting 2.5 points.

Steelers at 49ers

There are some exciting games in this docket. This game is going to be the hardest hitting, most defensive orientated. The 49ers are at home which will help them, but I think the Steelers have much more variety in their offense which should make them the favorites in this game.

San Fran is favored by three points here. I don’t love this game and don’t have a good feel for this game one way or the other. Does Big Ben play is a huge question mark. even if he can play how well can he move around? I guess I’ll take the 49ers here as three point favorites, but reserve the right to change my mind between now and early Monday afternoon.

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