NFL Picks vs the Spread Week 10
Jesse’s Picks
A much better week last week after some dreadful performances.
Here we go
Pittsburgh (-.3.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
I think this is one of the toughest games to pick in the week. I’ve been high on the Bengals since I saw them shut down the Buffalo Bills offense. The Bengals haven’t completely got everything worked out on offense yet. Dalton still has a lot of room to grow and their run game has been hit and miss, but man that defense. I’m going to trust in Dick Lebau and his ability to confuse the young Andy Dalton. This is a huge game for Andy Dalton and the Bengals, win this game and the playoffs are right within reach. Lose and it might be one more year. Pittsburgh to win by more than 3.5
Denver (+3) at Kansas City
Boy, oh boy what was that from the Chiefs last week. Pitiful. I think they will have a huge bounce back game, I can’t see them laying two stinkers in a row at home. Here’s what you can expect though, a ton of rushing yards from both teams. I’m taking the Chiefs minus three
Jacksonville (-3) at Colts
The Cols are awful, but they have to put together a good performance at some point, right? The Jaguars don’t offer much in the way of an offense other than Maurice Jones Drew. The problem is Maurice Jones Drew might be able to beat the Colts by himself. This is the Colts best chance to get a win this season, if they can’t come out inspired and pull out a victory it’s going to cost a lot of people their jobs. I’ll take the Colts +3 points at home
Buffalo (+5.5) at Dallas
Ok, Bills this is it. A loss here and they can kiss their playoff chances good bye. A win here and it’ll be the biggest win in their franchise in quite some time (well the one vs New Engladn was big, but probability was with them that they would have to win one eventually. The Bills, I think, have the kind off offense that could potentially give the Cowboys fits. The Cowboys are pretty good on defense, but they don’t have the depth, or secondary speed to cover a spread offense like the Bills run. The problem is, I don’t think the Bills can stop the Cowboys better either. I expect a pretty high scoring game here, but I think the will will stay within five. I’ll take the Bills to cover the 5.5 points
Houston (-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Josh Freeman is not having his best season. He’s still the future of the franchise, but something is off with him this year. Is he hiding an injury? Did the lack of a training camp really hurt him this year? I’m not sure, but I don’t trust him this year. On top of that the Buccanees are hurting a little bit on defense and I’m not sure they’ll be able to stop Arian Foster and Ben Tate. Lay the three, I think the the Texans could win fairly handily.
Tennessee (+3) at Carolina
I’ve taken Carolina a lot this year to cover spread as the underdogs, but not too often as the favorites. Tennessee is up and down and hard to figure out, but I think they will get a big victory on the road in Carolina to stay in the playoffs at 5-4 they would only be one game behind the Texans in the loss column. Titans to cover the 3. And the last time I bank on the Titans.
Washington (+4) at Miami
Miami is awful at home, and Washington is just plain awful right now. It’s really a tough call here. The Redskins have a good defense and the Dolphins have a pretty good defense as well. I expect a low scoring game, which means I think the Redskins will stay within four points to cover the spread. What I will also tell you is that I feel absolutely awful for anyone in the Dolphins or Redskins market who isn’t a fan of either team.
New Orleans Saints (Pick ’em) at Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons defense is really coming along lately giving up about 13 points over the past few games. The biggest reason for that (and their recent success) in my opinion is because they have gone back to their ground and pound identity. It makes their team better. It gives them more balance, it keeps the defense fresh and the team just functions better. This is a huge test the Saints are an explosive offense. I’m going to take the Falcons to win this game at home even though I think the Saints are the better team.
Detroit (-3) at Chicago
Detroit is favored by 3 at Chicago. In one of the most important games of the entire weekend. The winner of the game has the inside track on the playoffs. If the Lions lose this game they will have lost some of their luster, they would have lost three of their last four games. They also would have two games remaining with the Green Bay Packers, a game at New Orleans, a game with San Diego, a game at Oakland and a game with the dangerous Panthers. They also have a game with the Vikings. Not an easy schedule. HUGE game for the Lions. Going into chicago and winning by more than three is a tall order. I’ll take Chicago to cover the 3 points.
St. Louis (+2.5)at Cleveland
Last weeks games were great. This week there are some real stinkers. This is one of them. St. Louis has really played one good game this season. A game in which they beat the Saints. The Browns have three wins and have played most games pretty close. Neither team is adept at stopping the run, the problem is the Rams have the better running back with Steven Jackson. I’m still banking on the Rams making a second half push here to come in second in the N.F.C. West. I don’t think the Browns have the kinds of players that give the Rams real trouble on offense or defense. I’ll take the rams to cover the 2.5 points
Arizona (+14) at Philadelphia
The Eagles are the Chargers of the N.F.C. Every week it seems like they are winning the game, but at the end of the game the score is either far to close or the Eagles have lost. And you’re wondering what the heck went wrong. The Cardinals are not very good, but have had some real inspired performances. They kept it really close with the Giants and the Ravens, but they’ve also had stinkers vs the Steelers and Vikings.
Here’s my belief though. I truly believe that teams are fueled by the “dream team” talk from the off-season still and what has happened to the Eagles is every week they get the opponents best effort, which is why I think the Cardinals will keep closer than 14. I don’t think the Cardinals can win this game, but they have too many play makers for me to lay 14 points. Fitzgerald could go off, Peterson could have a return touchdown and things can be closer than they should be. Cardinals to cover the big 14 point spread
Baltimore (-6.5) at Seattle
Seattle is better than people think and the Ravens are the best of a down A.F.C.. This is the definition of a trap game. They are coming off a huge win against their arch rivals the Pittsburgh Steelers. Next week they have what could be a big time show-down with the surprisingly good Bengals. They have to make the trek out to Seattle and take on the pitiful Seahawks. The Seahawks though pay hard, and the Ravnes have shown this year that they play down to the competition (loss to the Titans and Jaguars, tried very hard to lose to the Cardinals). I’ll take the Seahawks to cover the 6.5 points at home
New York Giants (+3.5) at San Fran
This is a really interesting game. Even though the 49ers are 7-1 and running away with their division, they have a lot to prove. On the other side the Giants are two games ahead of the rest of their division and coming off an emotional victory in New England. The Giants have to fly out to San Fran to take on the very underrated 49ers. The 49ers are just a good team. The Giants can’t stop the run or run the football which is not going to help them out in San Francisco. This game scares me as a Giants fan and I can see the Giants losing this one fairly easily. I think the 49ers will win this game by more than 3.5, but hope I’m wrong. The Giants just don’t deal with success well. That’s all there is to it.
New England (+1.5) at New York Jets
The Patriots are getting points. They are coming off two losses. Maybe this is nostalgia, but I’m going to take the patriots to win outright.
Monday Night
Minnesota (+13.5) at Green Bay
I’ve laid the points with Green Bay Packers every week (except last week and that burned me) and think I’ve only lost two games with them. I say the packers make Monday Night a terribly boring game and the Packers win by at least two touchdowns.
Lock of the week:
No games really jump out to me, but I’m going to take the San Fran 49ers to cover the 3.5 here vs the Giants. I’m hoping I”m wrong here, but I just have a bad feeling about that game for the Giants.
Update:
I wanted to do the Texans game as my lock of the week, but shied away from it because I don’t love to take teams on the road, but I’m going to offer two locks of the weeks this week. I think Texans will win big vs the Buccaneers so I’m going to pick the Texans as well.
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