NFL mocks Picks vs the Spread Week 9
Week 9 is an exciting week. Probably the best week of games all season. Here are our thoughts on how the games will shake out. The games this week are highlighted by the Baltimore Ravens at the Pittsburgh Steelers, the New York Jets at the Buffalo Bills, and the New York Giants at the New England Patriots
The Spreads come from Football locks on late Friday night
Atlanta Falcons (-7) at Indianapolis Colts
Will’s pick (Atlanta)
Reggie’s pick: Atlanta
Even when the Colts are good, they can’t stop the run. This year they can’t stop anything. They also can’t score. They haven’t put together a good game since their Sunday night loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers in week 3(?). I’ve been banking on the Colts putting it all together and play a competitive game for a few weeks in a row and been disappointed. This week I’m not falling for it. Give me the Falcons to cover the 7 (which of course means it’s almost a lock the Colts will cover the spread).
Tampa Bay (+8) at New Orleans
Will’s pick Tampa Bay
Reggie’s pick: Tampa Bay
The Buccaneers have been up and down all year in large part because the young talented signal caller Josh Freeman has played inconsistent. The Buccaneers have had a habit of starting slow, if they start slow and get behind early to the Saints they could be in for a long day. I’ll roll the dice with the Saints here to win big though I’m really nervous about it. The Buccaneers have played well in New Orleans.
Cleveland Browns (+10.5) at Houston Texans
Will’s pick: Houston Texans
Reggie’s pick: Cleveland Browns
The Houston Texans can run the ball really well with Arian Foster, but their offense hasn’t been the same since Andre Johnson has been out. He’ll be out again on Sunday. The Cleveland Browns are number two in the league right now in pass defense. The Browns don’t have a great pass rush, but they are playing the pass well. The Browns will be without Peyton Hillis and they have no offense (and the Texans defense is pretty good). But I just think the Browns will play all right and keep the game within 10 and a half points. I don’t trust the Texans to win big in a “trap” game.
New York Jets (+2) at Buffalo
Wills pick: Buffalo Bills
Reggie’s pick: New York Jets
The Jets might be missing Plaxico Burress who is coming off his best game of the season. The Bills have already ruled out LT Demetrius Bell, NT Kyle Williams, and cornerback Aaron Williams. The Jets have struggled away from home and the Bills have been very good at home. The Bills have also played the Jets close a lot, even when the Bills weren’t any good. Everything points to a Bills victory here, right?
I think the Bills will out play the Jets, but lose. That seems to be the Jets way and even if they don’t, I could see it being a 1 point game.
Jets with the points.
Miami (+4) at Kansas City Chiefs
Will’s pick: Kansas City Chiefs
Reggie’s pick: Miami Dolphins
Chiefs are playing hot and the Dolphins are going to get worse as the season progresses, I believe. It’s annoying to say, but it’s true. NFL is a tough, tough sport to play when you’re not any good. How many players are willing to take a physical pounding (equivalent to a low speed car wreck they always say) when the only upside is pride? The Chiefs are on fire right now and play really well at home. Give me the Chiefs to cover the spread.
San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) at Washington Redskins
Will’s pick: San Francisco
Reggie’s pick: San Francisco
I’ve been high on the 49ers for awhile, but now everyone has caught on. The Redskins don’t have the horses to take advantage of the 49ers weaknesses. The 49ers aren’t going to score a million points, but I think they cover the 3.5 points fairly easily.
Seattle Seahawks (+11.5) at Dallas Cowboys
Will’s pick: Dallas Cowboys
Reggie’s pick: Dallas Cowboys
The Seahawks are weird. I think Carroll maximizes the talent on the team, but they need more talent. I thought the Cowboys could win big two weeks ago and they did and I was pretty sure they would lose vs the Eagles and they did. This week I think they will win, but with Sean Lee, Mike Jenkins, and Felix Jones (not that big of a deal) all out, I think the Seahawks will cover the 11.5 points.
Denver (+7) at Oakland Raiders
Will’s pick: Denver Broncos
Reggie’s pick: Denver
I would take the Raiders without hesitation here with the 7 points if Darren Mcfadden was playing, but he’s not which gives me a lot of pause. I know Tebow has been awfully bad for almost all the time he’s played this year, but the Raiders defense hasn’t been playing great all season. It also is rough because who knows what Carson Palmer will be on Sunday.
Ugh. Hard game to pick to me.I’ll take the Broncos (why Not) +7. When in doubt take a large point spread in a big divison rivalry game.
Cincinnati Bengals (+3) at Tennessee Titans
Will’s pick: Cincinnati Bengals
Reggie’s pick: Cincinnati
Like the 49ers, I’ve been high on the Bengals for awhile, calling them the league’s most underrated team, and it still seems that they are just that. It’s risky taking a rookie quarterback on the road as a big underdog but I”m going to do it. I don’t see how the Titans are going to pass or run on the Bengals defense, and I think there are plays to be made on the Titans defense. Bengals to win outright.
St. Louis (+2.5) at Arizona
Wills pick: Arizona Cardinals
Reggie’s pick: St. Louis
Arizona could be without Kevin Kolb which really effects the game, the Rams are also likely without Sam Bradford. This could be a battle of the backups. Neither team is any good, but I think the Rams could win this game. Give me the Rams +2.5 vs the Cardinals.
New York Giants (+9) at New England
Will’s pick: New England Patriots
Reggie’s Pick: New England
The Giants are huge underdogs for being a 5=2 team that has a franchise quarterback. Well here’s why. The Giants could be without Bradshaw, Hakeeem Nicks, David Baas, and Jason Pierre Paul. (The first three are almost certainly out, Pierre Paul is 50-50).
There are a lot of questions about the Giants that will be answered this week. I think 9 points is too many for a team that is as jekyll and hyde as the Giants, especially with their explosive pass offense. I think the Giants will cover the 9 points with or without Nicks and Bradshaw
Green Bay (-5.5) at San Diego Chargers
Will’s pick: Green Bay Packers
Reggie: Green Bay
The Chargers are an annoying team. At some point this year they will start playing like legitimate Superbowl contenders. Is it this week? I wish I knew why Philip Rivers was struggling so much. Undisclosed injury? I’m not sure.
I’ve said every week, take the Packers to cover the spread until they prove otherwise, but I”m going to go against my own advice and take the Chargers to cover the 5.5 points. They are the kind of team that could beat the Packers out right if they play their best game, or lose pathetically like they did vs the Jets.
Baltimore (+3) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Will’s pick: Baltimore Ravens
Reggie: Baltimore
I think the Steelers are better than Baltimore and I don’t trust Baltimore. The Steelers will beat Baltimore by more than 3 points.
Chicago (-7.5) at Philadelphia Eagles
Will’s pick: Chicago Bears
Reggie: Chicago
And here come the Eagles. This shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone. Every year they start slow and finish strong. I’ll take the Eagles to wallop the Bears, but I hope I’m wrong. The Bears defense isn’t as good as it has been in year’s past and it’s vulnerable the Eagles will make the pay.
Lock of the week:
Bengals over the Titans
This game makes me very nervous here. I generally don’t like to take road dogs to cover the spread, and especially with rookie quarterbacks, but the Bengals are a better team than the Titans and I’m just going to base it on that.