NFL Mocks Picks Against the Spread Week 7

Whew two bad weeks in a row for me, but still over .500 for the season picking nearly every game (I always manage to have one oversight a week somehow). Reggie is also over .500 for the season, and had been hot heading into last week. This is supposedly a bad week, but I actually feel all right about it so I think I’ll do pretty well.

The lines are from footballlocks.com and come from Late Thursday/early Friday

Week 1:

Reggie 7-9

Will 5-11

Jesse-8-8

Week 2

Reggie: 8-8

Will: huge week 11-5

Jesse-Bad week 6-10

Week 3

Reggie: 10-6

Will 6-10

Jesse: 10-6

Week 4:

Will: 7-9

Reggie: 8-8

Jesse: 10-4 (1-0 on lock of the week)

Didn’t pick two games because of an oversight.

Week 5:

Will: 8-5

Reggie: 7-6

Jesse: 6-7

Week 6: (the Giants were favored by 3, and won by 3 so tie for everyone)

Will: 5-7-1

Reggie: 5-7-1

Jesse: 5-7-1

For the season

Will: 40-46-1

Reggie: 45-42-1

Jesse: 45-40-1

Jesse’s Locks: 4-2 (2 losses in a r0w)

Will’s Picks

TAMPA BAY (+1) – CAROLINA (-2.5) – San Diego (-2) – CLEVELAND (-3) – Houston (+3) – Denver (+1.5) – DETROIT (-3.5) – OAKLAND (-4.5) –Pittsburgh (-3.5) – St. Louis (+12.5) – Green Bay (-9) – Indianapolis (+14) –Baltimore (-7.5) –

Reggies Picks

Spread                                    Winner
BUccs                                    Buccs
Carolina                                    CArolina
NYJ                                        NYJ
Sea                                        Sea
Hou                                        Hou
Den                                            Den
Falcons                                    Det
KC                                            Oak
Arz                                            Pit
Dal                                            Dal
GB                                            GB
Ind                                           NO
Bal                                            Bal

Jesse’s picks

all right I was on fire early in the season, but have faded a bit the past two weeks because I got away from someof my principles. I’m going to have a good week this week, I can feel it (maybe).

Tampa Bay and Chicago have both been inconsistent this year, but in my heart of hearts I think Tampa Bay is a better team ann the line is negligible. It’s a weird game because they are playing in London which could really affect things in a different way. It does not help that Legarette Blount is doubtful to play, but I think Tampa Bay will win this game and cover the spread (-1) .

Carolina is favored vs Washington with John Beck which is a bit odd considering the Panthers haven’t won many games this year (1) and the Redskins are 3-2. I’m not really sure what to expect out of John Beck which makes this a kind of difficult game to pick, but with Trent Williams and Chris Cooley out his job is a going to be harder.  Washington has a good defense which could give Newton fits, but I’ll take the home team to cover the spread. The Panthers aren’t good enough to win a ton of games, but they are good enough to scare a lot of teams. Betting on a rookie quarterback is difficult because you never know when they’re going to have one of those clunker games. I would bet the under here too I can’t imagine many points.

San Diego is Favored by 2 at New York. Both teams have been disappointing, but that’s not a bad thing for the Chargers. The Chargers are bad early every single year and then really start to heat up at this time of year. What is different this year is that they’ve actually won a few of the games early instead of starting the season 1-4 or 2-5 or something like they are wont to do under Norv Turner. Here’s what I know. The Jets defense isn’t great and the offense looks bad, if Matt Moore was an average quarterback they probably lose to a bad Dolphins team last week on Monday Night when they were fighting for their season. Norv Turner got called out this week by Rex Ryan, and he NEEDS to have his team step up and win this game for him. Give me San Diego -2 to beat the Jets and cover the spread.

Cleveland is favored by 3 at home with Charlie Whitehurst starting I would pick the Seahawks at home, but Cleveland could o beat the Seahawks by more than three. I really think it’s a toss up. I think the Seahawks are underrated, especially in their run defense, but the Browns should win this game at home.

Tennessee is up and down and all over. The Texans have cooled down off a hot start. This is a huge game for the Texans if they want to win the division this year as the Titans are their only competition. Matt Hasselbeck has really played well this year. The Texans will again be without Andre Johnson and of course Mario Williams is out for the season.  I’ll take the Titans to win by more than three, but this game scares me.

Miami is favored by 1.5 vs Denver in a Tim Tebow home coming game. The Front office obviously hates Tebow. They traded away his best wide receiver to make it harder for him to prove that he can be the quarterback of the future for a late round draft pick. Broncos fans please explain this move to me. I got lambasted in the preseason by saying that the Dolphins were the worst team in the league, and so far they have done nothing to prove me wrong. I’m going to say the Broncos win this game, as they are coming off a bye and have something to play for (Tebow), while the Dolphins are going to trot out  Matt Moore and will be coming off an emotional loss to the Jets.  Broncos win outright

Atlanta travels to Detroit as a 3.5 point underdog to take on the Lions coming off a bad loss to the 49ers. Considering most teams are given three points at home, this line means that Detroit and Atlanta are essentially even teams. I think the Lions are better than Atlanta. At least Detroit has some talent on defense. The Falcons are having a hard time adjusting to being a more pass oriented team and I don’t think the Falcons can block the Lions up front. The Lions will be looking for revenge after a bad game vs the 49ers.  I haven’t really been impressed with Atlanta all year. Give me the Lions to cover the 3.5 points

Kansas City has been playing much better, which is why they are only 4.5 underdogs going into Oakland this week. The Raiders won’t be starting Jason Campbell (out for season) or maybe not even Carson Palmer (recent trade addition) and apparently the sharps really like Kansas City, but I’ve been riding Oakland all year and doing well with that (don’t think I’ve lost an Oakland Raiders game yet).  I’m going to ride them again. Oakland will beat the Chiefs by more than 4.5 points.

Pittsburgh Travels to Arizona to take on the Cardinals without Aaron Smith (IR), Casey Hampton, and James Harrison. The Cardinals will be without Kerry Rhodes.

This is a “trap” game for the Steelers. The Steelers are going to Arizona, who plays well at home vs a team that has a coach that really wants to beat the Steelers and will play hard. The Steelers also haven’t really blown anyone out this year…even Jacksonville who is a worse team than the cardinals. I just can’t imagine the Steelers getting up for this game and I’ll take the Cardinals to cover the spread, but the Steelers could easily win.

St. Louis is heading into a buzz say in Dallas who is -12.5 points. Dallas defense is pretty good and the Rams offense is pretty bad and that was before Sam Bradford was hurt. Bradford won’t play today. The Cowboys want to get back on track and Miles Austin and Dez Bryant should have huge games. I’ll take Dallas to cover the hefty 12.5 point spread at home.

Green Bay is -9 at Minnesota. Minnesota will be starting rookie QB Christian Ponder. Good luck. Take Green Bay to cover the 9

The Colts are +14 at New Orleans. I think the Colts are still trying, soon they might stop because they have a lot of veterans and at some point they’ll realize that it’s best to save their body and regroup for next year, but I don’t think they’ll do that until they get their first win. I’ll take the Colts to cover the 14 in New Orleans.

Jacksonville is awful, Baltimore’s defense should absolutely dominate Blaine Gabbert and the Jaguars I have no problem thinking the Ravens will cover 7.5 on Monday Night Football.

Best Bets

Every week starting this week I”ll pick two games I like more than the others as best bets, and then I’ll also offer a lock of the week.

I’m not taking any Lay-ups here either.

I don’t think highly of the way the Jets have played this year at all. The Chargers aren’t that good either, but I think they are better than the Jets. I know this is a “toss-up” game for many, but if you can’t pass the ball well and can’t run the ball well, how can you beat a good team? I would no be surprised at all if the Chargers beat the Jets by 10 points.

The Lions are better than the Falcons. They’ll win this game in Detroit by more than 3.5.

Regret pick(s) of the week

Here’s the games I feel most shaky about.

The Steelers are better than the Cardinals and if the good Steelers team shows up they can beat down the Cardinals. I’m really just banking on the Steelers not trying that hard on Sunday. That’s always risky.

I think Seattle is better than everyone else thinks they are. They have decent offensive weapons and a tough physical defense, I could see them beating the Browns.

Titans-I’m not doing well with the Titans. One week they play awesome the next terrible. Who is this team? Are they playoff contenders or not. This weekend will answer a lot of questions I have about the Titans, I think.

Lock of the week:

Dallas -12.5 vs the Rams

I don’t see any way possible the Rams can score on Dallas or stop their passing attack. Romo can really rack up yardage and points in a hurry vs bad teams. As a Giants fans of course I’ll be rooting for the Rams to pull up a big upset, but I can’t see it happening. Even though Jay Feely is one of those quarterbacks who comes in and jolts a team for one week, I’ll still take the Cowboys to win big.

The Ravens were my second choice.

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