Peyton Manning to Miss Significant Time: Is Bill Polian Still a Top (Draft) Talent Evaluator?

With the official news today that Peyton Manning has had another neck surgery and will miss signifcant time this season, I wondered how well the Colts would do this season. Which led me to wonder is Bill Polian Still a Top Draft Talent Evaluator. I know, I know. Blasphemy! Bill Polian is the greatest talent evaluator the league has ever seen? Who else can consistently put together a playoff team year after year like Polian has? Is his reputation misleading?

I’ve heard that argument (the one about a consistent playoff team), but I’ve been wavering on that for awhile now and watching the Colts this preseason (or any preseason, or any game Peyton sat after the first series has only piqued my interest in this topic. Is Bill Polian one of the league’s top General Managers because he has a great eye for talent? Or is he one of the leagues luckiest general managers having been blessed with not one, but two Hall of Fame quarterbacks in his tenure as general manager for the Bills and Colts.

I’m more specifically wondering if Bill Polian STILL is one of the top general managers in the league and in order to do that I’m going to look over what he’s done (mostly through the draft, this is NFLmocks.com after all) to find out whether or not my inklings of doubt will be substantiated or whether or not I’ll get the ketchup out so I can at least enjoy eating crow.

The thing you have to absolutely love about Polian, though, is that he believes in himself and doesn’t adhere strictly to the value put on players by draftniks and will take the players he thinks fit the system right. I like his moxy to do what he feels is right and not give into the beat writers, even if he turns out to be wrong.

My evaluation system is like this: In the first two rounds of the draft teams should get starters. Every team aims to have second round players eventually become starters. A really good draft is three starters and some depth players.

2007 N.F.L. Draft

In the 2007 NFL draft, the Colts were coming off a Superbowl victory and had the 32nd best pick overall.

Anthony Gonzalez, WR, Ohio State

Gonzalez has struggled in the N.F.L. to stay healthy. He’s only played in 32 games over four seasons and only three games in the last two seasons. Last year he had 5 catches for 67 yards in the two games he could have played.

The draft pick now looks like a near bust though a big year this year could help erase that label (even it’s unfair to him because he hasn’t been able to stay healthy). Who were the next three wide receivers chosen after Gonzalez?

Sydney Rice

Dwayne Jarret

Steve Smith

Even though Steve Smith wasn’t considered a first round pick, Smith was the player the Colts thought they had when they drafted Anthony Gonzalez. He’s a tactician in the passing game, runs great routes and has reliable hands. Smith put up huge number with Eli Manning for a couple of seasons, but could have Marvin Harrison-esque numbers with Peyton (had he not also suffered that injury).

2nd round pick: Tony Ugoh, T, Arkansas

Tony Ugoh was meant to be the blind side protector of the future for Peyton Manning and the Colts, and he started 27 games for the Colts over three seasons before being released by the team. He was on the Lions roster for the 2010 season though he didn’t appear in any games. The Ugoh pick was a big failure. This was not a pretty first two rounds in 2007.

3rd through 7th round picks.

Dante Hughes, CB, California (3rd), Quinn Pitcock, DT, Ohio State (3rd round)

Brandon Condren, DB, Troy State (4th), Clint Session, LB, Pittsburgh (4th round)

Roy Hall, WR, Ohio State (5th), Michael Coe, DB, Alabama State, (5th)

Keyunta Dawson, DT, Texas Tech (7th)

Since then

Their first round picks have been: Jerry Hughes, Donald Brown, and Anthony Castanzo.

For a guy who has a big time reputation as a top talent evaluator, the first round for the Colts as of lately has been pretty bad. I’m a fan of what they did in the most recent draft however. Still that’s yet to be proven.. But the selection of Donald Brown (Over Hakeem Nicks who was rumored to be their top choice) looks awful. He was demoted to third string running back for this season. Jerry Hughes had zero sacks last year and only six tackles. He was supposed to be a more polished DE who would make an immediate impact as a situational pass rusher. Castanzo looks like a solid pick.

In the second round: Mike Pollack, Fili Moala, Pat Angerer, and Ben Ijalana

Pat Angere was seen by draftniks to have 4th to 7th round range. He played pretty well last year 88 tackles and a sack. Moala and Pollack made a lot of starts for the Colts last year, but is either an impact player? No. Just solid. Ijalana has big upside.

3rd round: Phillip Wheeler, Jerraud Powers, Kevin Thomas, Drake Nevis

Powers is an improving young cornerback, but hasn’t been pro bowl caliber or anything. He had 2 interceptions last year and is solid. Wheeler too is fairly talented, but not that productive. 66 tackles in 16 starts with no sacks, and only 1 pass defensed. Thomas has yet to register a game in the N.F.L.

4th round: Jacob Tame, Austin Collie, Terrance Taylor, Jacques McClendon, Delone Carter

Tamme and Collie are pretty good players, BUT how much of that has to do with Peyton Manning and how much with the fact they are just good players. This year without Peyton for a period of time we’ll see what they can do alone. Carter was a good pick.

5th round: Brody Eldridge, and Marcus Howard

So few fifth round picks and little from them.

6th round: Tony Santi, Mike Hart, Pierre Garcon, Steve Justice, Curtis Painter, Chris Rucker

Again the best player in this group is an offensive wide receiver. However, what would Garcon be without Peyton? We’ll see this year. I think Garcon is a very nice, but inconsistent Wide Receiver.

7th round: Jamey Richard, Pat Mcafee, Jamie Thomas, Ricardo Matthews, Kavell Connor, Ray Fisher

Yawn. Pat Mcafee had a good season last year and is a pretty good punter.

Bill Polian receives much priase as a top talent evaluator in the N.F.L. and rightfully so. Results are King in the N.F.L. and few have been as successful as Polian. But this year he faces a true test. There have been grumblings about the lack of talent on the Colts roster the past couple of seasons, but that has been overcome by the excellency of Future First Ballot Hall of Famer Peyton Manning. This year is a big test for the Colts and Polian. Just how good is Polian as a general manager. It’s tough losing your quarterback (possibly for the season, though it seems more like he’ll be back in November or December), but teams have overcome that before. The Patriots went 11-5 without Tom Brady. Teams like the Packers and Chargers had contingency plans for their quarterback and haven’t missed much of a beat.

What happens with the Colts this year, and does this year speak more about Polian’s value or do the year of success with Hall of Fame Quarterbacks say more (that’s an open-ended question I’m posing to you, the readers).

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