Fantasy Football Busts

We here at NFLmocks have our league draft on Wednesday night so to keep somewhat of a competitive advantage I’m not going to list my sleepers until after the draft, but here are a few players I don’t think will have great fantasy seasons in 2011.

Don’t think of this as busts or knocks on the players on the field in 2011, but rather players I’m avoiding on draft day. I’ll make two or three picks for each position. Keep in mind though, that if these players last a lot longer than usual they become value picks, but based on where they have generally been falling I’d stay away from them.

Quarterback

Matt Ryan

The difference between Fantasy Football and Real Football. Players like Matt Ryan. On the field a young excellent quarterback in fantasy football? I don’t think he’s worth drafting because he is being over-drafted because of the addition of Julio Jones. The Falcons want to run the football, sure Ryan will put up good numbers. He’s a solid safe bet and if you can get him late it’s a good move, but don’t reach for him because he added Julio Jones. Jones still has to learn the playbook, WR is still one of the hardest positions in the league to grasp as a rookie and he did miss a lot of things because of the lockout. Love the player, probably not drafting him in fantasy football.

Michael Vick

He can run, he can throw, the Eagles have the best team on the league on paper. There are explosive weapons all around him, but I’m not drafting him. Why? The first reason is I can’t trust that he’ll stay healthy. Last year he missed four games because of injuries. I also don’t expect him to have such a major impact on offense with another year. A lot of times when a coach can watch a Quarterback/teams entire season during the off-season they can make better game plans. Also, even though he only threw six interceptions last year, he threw six in his last five games he played. He didn’t play the final game of the season. He’s talented, but I’m not making him my third or fourth highest quarterback, and that’s generally where he’s drafted.

Running backs

LeSean McCoy, RB, Eagles

I’m not trying to hate on Eagles here, but I think in non PPR leagues (in PPR leagues I love McCoy), McCoy is being over-drafted. He’s a very good N.F.L. player as well and last year he had 1,500 combined receiving and rushing yards, but I think that the presence of Ronnie Brown and the fact that the Eagles like to run Michael Vick in the end zone will curtail McCoy’s numbers. I also think it’s possible that if the Eagles blow teams out like everyone is expecting McCoy could see less touches than he did last year. Good player, but I’ll avoid him. Too many weapons on one team, and I think his touches go down this year. Right now he’s as high as the fifth running back taken off the board in some instances. Too rich for my blood.

Daniel Thomas, RB, Miami

I didn’t like him that much coming out of the draft and I still don’t like him. I don’t think the Dolphins are a good team at all this year. Thomas might get a lot of touches, but I don’t think a lot of them will come in the Red-zone. I mean he’s fine I guess for a utility guy who can give you some help if you have a team that has two byes at the running back position or flex, but I’m not going to be drafting Daniel Thomas.

Cedric Benson, RB, Bengals

Same problem for me as Daniel Thomas. The Bengals won’t have a great passing game this year, and they might not have too many touchdowns. I prefer a back like Fred Jackson over Cedric Benson who’s had a couple of good years, but is being over-drafted right now.

Wide Receiver

Dwayne Bowe, WR, Chiefs

I’m not saying he’s not a good player, but I don’t think he’ll approach 15 touchdowns this year again. First the presence of Jon Baldwin could make some difference as the Chiefs will have more than one target to throw to. As well the continued improvement of Dexter McCluster, but the reason I don’t love Bowe is that this year the Chiefs have a much more difficult schedule. Last year he had 15 touchdowns in the seasons before that he had 16 total over three years. Last year vs good teams like the Chargers (2 games) and Colts he had bad games. Vs the Chargers 2 catches for 16 yards (both games combined), vs the Colts 2 catches for 33 yards. Zero touchdowns in those games. Vs Baltimore in the playoffs zero catches.

Marques Colston, WR, Saints

Very talented player playing with a great quarterback usually equals fantasy gold, but Colston has been banged up all off-season and he’s a player you want to avoid in your fantasy draft. Now if he starts falling past the sixth round, scoop him up.

Tight End

Jermichael Finley, Green Bay Packers

Very talented, but he’s coming off a major knee injury and then there is always the Superbowl hangover. Almost all teams go through a Superbowl hangover, it just happens. I’m not sure how the lockout will effect the hangover this year, the fact that the Packers had more time off than usual to get back on the field could help them avoid the hangover. Still, the Superbowl champs always get the best from every team on their schedule as well, which can make a difference. Use your best judgment, but don’t grab Finley too early.

Zach Miller, Seahawks

Another talented player, but I don’t think he’ll make that big of an impact on Seattle this year. If you were paying attention to Seattle this year you noticed that they developed a core organization philosophy to get bigger. Their OL got bigger, cornerbacks got bigger, everywhere they were getting bigger. I think Pete Carroll wants to go to more of a ground and pound system. I could Seattle focus on running more this year. Miller might get more passes thrown his way as a player that’s supposed to control the middle of the field. If Zach Miller went to a team with a viable quarterback, or at least one who puts up numbers (like the Bills with Ryan Fitzpatrick) I would make him a fantasy sleeper. I don’t love him in Seattle.

Defense

In fantasy Football you want to grab defenses who can score points through sacks, returns and things of that nature more so than teams that are just good defensed.

NY Jets

I don’t generally draft defenses high regardless, but I’ll definitely stay away from the Jets. The Jets are going to keep opponents points down because they play a ball control type of offense, but they don’t generate a lot of pressure on their own and they don’t score a lot of defensive points. I think their special teams are going to be much worse this year than they were last year.

What are your thoughts?

Let me know what you agree with, or let me know how much of an idiot I am.

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