Why drafting offensive linemen early in the first round doesn’t make sense (anymore)
Before I write this article, I want to make one thing clear: I don’t think the importance of a good offensive line is overrated. A great offensive line can be a huge asset to any team’s offense. The value is quite significant. However, drafting offensive linemen in the first round just doesn’t make too much sense in the modern NFL.
The reason why it doesn’t make much sense to draft linemen early is the incredible balance of defensive fronts in the NFL. Entering the 2011 season (if there is one), 15 of the 32 NFL teams will be running a 3-4 defense, with all the rest running a 4-3. That’s as balanced as it’s ever been in the NFL. This balance really hurts the value of offensive linemen. Why? Because there are just not many tackles that can dominate the quick, athletic 5 techniques like Dwight Freeney and Osi Umenyioria, seen in a 4-3, as well as the physical, huge 5 techniques like Haloti Ngata and Richard Seymour, seen in a 3-4. Almost no offensive tackle can have a productive game against a 4-3 defensive end as well as a 3-4 defensive end. But they will have a lot of playing time against each type of player. Guards have a similar issue; they are often assigned to block 3-4 linebackers such as Cameron Wake and DeMarcus Ware, as well as 4-3 defensive tackles like Ndamukong Suh and Sedrick Ellis.
The biggest issue with this is the fact that, if a team drafts an offensive tackle or guard in the first round, the player selected will have bad games against any player he doesn’t have a favorable matchup with, and that will happen a good amount of the time. Even if a team drafts an insanely athletic, fundamentally sound offensive tackle that can stop guys like Dwight Freeney with no effort at all, that player is almost certain to crumble against Haloti Ngata, and still won’t be that every game dominator that teams look for from a top ten pick. And, if a team can’t get a player that even has a chance to dominate every player he plays against early in the first rounf, then what’s the point of drafting the player?
After I thought of this, I decided to see whether or not stats support my argument. I figured that, if the difference in production from a fantastic offensive line compared to a terrible offensive line was small, or at least smaller than it used to be, then the value of offensive linemen has diminished with the rise of the 3-4 in the last two years. The stats revealed that the difference between offensive line production was shrinking. During the last 2 years, the difference in the “sacks allowed,” between the best offensive line and the worst offensive line was 40 and 38 respectively (meaning, last year, the team that allowed the most sacks in the NFL, the Bears, allowed 40 more sacks than 2 teams who were tied for allowing the fewest sacks in the NFL, the Colts and Giants, and the difference was 38 the year before). During the previous 5 years, the difference between the best O-line in the NFL and the worst O-line was 48 sacks per year. This means that, during the last 2 years, the best offensive line prevented 39 sacks from happening per year, but, in the previous 5 years, they prevented 48 from happening per year, which suggests the value of a good offensive line is shrinking.
Now, drafting an offensive linemen early in the first round is far from a death sentence. There are exceptions, based the opponents a team plays. The Green Bay Packers, for example, play in a division with exclusively 4-3 teams, and, under the current scheduling system, can only play between 1-7 (most likely about 4) teams in the NFL that use a 3-4 defense. If they draft an tackle built to stop the 4-3 defense, they can get production from him. But very few of these exceptions exist.
Ultimately, if I had to compare drafting offensive linemen in the first round to anything, it would be drafting a quarterback in the first round… of a fantasy football draft. Even though a quarterback accounts for a lot of fantasy football points, the difference in fantasy football points scored from the best quarterback in the league and the worst quarterback in the league isn’t that big. With a balance between 3-4 and 4-3 in the NFL, the same could be said about offensive linemen.