Get to know the Bengals: Draftek's Bengal Analyst

We’ve been doing interviews from bloggers who cover all the Teams in the N.F.L, but I didn’t get a response from some people so I turned to drafttek.com and asked if they could help out with some of the missing teams. The first of a few different drafttek interviewees is Joseph Mays who covers the Bengals as well as the Dolphins and Patriots. Below is what he had to say about Carson Palmer and the rest of the Bengals.

1) What are the Bengals biggest needs to address this off-season?

Prior to Carson Palmer’s sentiments on the franchise & his demand to be traded/threat to retire, Cincinnati was more than likely considering finding help at wide receiver, along the offensive & defensive lines (specifically OG & DT), as well as in the deep secondary. Of course now with the Palmer situation & the Bengals lack of talent behind him, QB becomes a high priority. With such an early selection in the 1st round they should easily be able to fill one of these big needs; the 4th pick will land one of the top QBs (Blaine Gabbert, Cameron Newton), WR (AJ Green, Julio Jones), DTs (Marcell Dareus, Nick Fairley), or DBs (Patrick Peterson). Obviously only 3 of the 7 I listed can be gone before the Bengals are on the clock so they’re assured of getting a top talent at a position of need. The debate then becomes, what position is most critical to fill now and/or who will make an immediate impact?

2). What’s going on with Palmer…is he seriously going to retire?

Part two: a lot of people think he has regressed anyway is this true or are they off-base?

2a) Clearly this is just my opinion. I have no “inside sources” around Palmer to actually know what he’s thinking. Whether or not his threat to retire if not traded is truth or a farce is known only to him. His attitude & statements filtered by the media, to me, make it sound that he’d be content to retire. He’s made a large sum of money and – according to him – saved a bunch of it. Does he need to keep working, at least as a QB in the NFL? Probably not. So there is some financial reasoning, paired with his current attitude towards the franchise, to believe he will simply walk away. On the other hand, he’s not washed up. With the proper system & personnel around him he can be an above average QB. He’ll probably never be elite, as many thought he would be, but returning to a “top 10”-type guy is certainly not out of the question. I understand the organization’s stance in the past on frustrated players – don’t trade them; make ’em stick it out since, after all, they did sign a contract. However, this isn’t a RB or WR. This is your QB, a player that is ridiculously hard to replace. I know, preaching to the choir. But if you, as the owner/GM/coach, truly think he’ll walk away from the game instead of play for you, wouldn’t you rather get something for him? A starting-caliber QB, one that can be a top-10 guy in the NFL, is certainly worth a few draft picks. If teams want give a 1st for the Eagles’ Kevin Kolb, I’d think there’d be a team willing to give a 1st for Palmer. And that’s why I think this situation is different from the past Corey Dillon & Chad Ochocinco situations. If the Bengals could get a 2nd for a disgruntled & declining Dillon, I’d think they could get a 1st from a team such as, say, the Seahawks? The labor mess complicates things, of course. In the end, I’m of the opinion that, should the Bengals not trade Palmer when they can, he will retire.

2b) I said I think Palmer can be a top-10 guy in this league & I really believe that. He was easily a top 5-guy in 2005, top-10 in 2006 & 2007. Injuries have played a big part in his struggles the last 3 seasons and people have reason to question whether or not he can regain his form from earlier in his career. But I also believe that the talent around him and his frustration with the direction of the franchise has hurt him on the field. Around the trade deadline and in the offseason in all major sports you hear people talk about a “change of scenery” helping a player rebound. I think that’s the case for Palmer. Though his individual passing statistics may lead people to believe he’s more of the 14th-18th best QB in the NFL at this time, Pro Football Focus thinks otherwise. In their passer rating metric, Palmer ranked 13th in 2009 and 10th in 2010. I think that’s about right, based on his own talent. Should he join a team with more all-around talent, he could easily be in the 7-10 range for the next few years.

3). Let’s assume the Bengals draft a QB in the first two rounds…what’s your order of preference for these QB and a little bit about why, if you wouldnt mind.

This is a down year for QBs, in my opinion. However, the position is always overdrafted because of the importance of the position. Honestly I think the big name guys in this years draft are more suited, talent wise, to be picked at the back end of round 1 or early round 2. We know that Newton & Gabbert won’t last that long. They are almost everyone’s top 2 passers in the 2011 draft. I personally prefer Gabbert over Newton. Gabbert is the better all-around prospect because he has the size, mechanics, and intangibles every team wants. The only negative is the system he’s coming from and possibly his arm strength, a metric that I think can be overblown anyway. He has the strength to make all the throws NFL teams want, he just doesn’t have the cannon like Mallett from Arkansas. The reason I dislike Newton is three-fold: First, he has terrible intangibles. His off the field stuff is a huge red flag for me. There’s a lot already out there and who knows how much more the general public doesn’t know? Secondly, he isn’t the most accurate passer, one of the big reason people are down on Locker from Washington. Newton may not be able to make all the pinpoint throws necessary at the professional level. Lastly, his play diagnosing skills appear below average to me. Watching him play, especially in the National Championship game, it appeared that he would look at his #1 guy & decide to throw it to him or run. There wasn’t a real progression in his reads. His lack of accuracy combined with his below-average coverage reads drops him on my list. Truthfully, I like Ryan Mallett as a QB better than Newton. I think Mallett’s overall attributes are superior to Newton’s in every way, save for the elite athletic ability. Mallett also has the character concerns plaguing Newton. Should I be making the decision on who to pick for the Bengals, I’d only consider Gabbert with the #4 pick. In the early 2nd I’d consider taking Newton, but we all know he won’t be there. At that juncture I’d be very tempted to go Mallett, despite his off the field concerns. I’d also be willing to use my early 2nd round pick on Ponder & Locker. You want a list? Here’s my Top 5 QBs for 2011: 1-Gabbert, 2-Mallett, 3-Newton, 4-Ponder, 5-Locker.

4). Something I’ve thought was a big reason why the Bengals went from playoffs to top 5 in the draft was a loss of idenity and production in the power run game…is that true? And, if so, how do they fix it? Is this problelm more on Benson or the Oline?

That is definitely an intriguing argument. Let’s check the stats. Using Pro Football Reference’s OL run game grading metrics for the past 3 seasons we can see the progression of the execution of the players in the trenches. The standard 5 OL starters in 2008 average a running game score of approximately 40. In 2009, the average OL score jumped to 13. In 2010, it fell to 22. I can’t say how this compares with the other 31 NFL teams but it shows you that the o-linemen improved in 2009 and regressed a bit this past season, though they were still much better than the 2008 squad. When you compare the OL grades with overall run game production (yards per game, yards per attempt, rushing TDs, rushes of 20+ yards) you can start to see who may or may not be at fault. In 2008 when the Bengals OL was rather bad, the team ranked 29th, 30th, 31st and 29th in the aforementioned statistics. I’d say these bad results are as a result of poor OL play coupled with a weak backfield. In 2009, when the o-line improved by almost 4x, the team jumped to 9th in rushing yards per game and 4th in rushes gaining 20+ yards and made modest gains in yards per attempt and rushing TDs. This past season the offensive line regressed some but was still almost 2x better than the 2008 squad. However, the rushing statistics fell off drastically. Cincinnati fell to 27th in rushing yards per game, 32nd in yards per rushing attempt, 29th in rushing TDs and 31st in rushes gaining 20+ yards. Seeing how the OL was worse in 2010 than 2009 but not nearly as bad as in 2008, I blame most of the run game’s struggles on the backfield and not on the o-line. In fact, Cincinnati had 2 o-linemen rank in the top 10 in 2010 at their position according to Pro Football Focus. Andrew Whitworth was rated the 9th best OT in the run game (5th best LT) & Kyle Cook was graded as the 10th best OC in the running game. Guards Bobbie Williams & Nate Livings were above average, too. You can also see how the backs should be blamed more so than the line with the poor performance in the yards per attempt metric in 2009. Despite having a very strong OL in 2009, Bengals backs average just 4.1 yards per carry (19th in NFL). While a better RT would be ideal (Andre Smith?), the RBs need to shoulder more of the blame than the offensive line when talking about run game struggles. It is true that the Bengals shied away from the ground game in 2010. They were 15th in rushing attempts for the season after finishing in 4th the season before. I’d say the reason for relying less on rushing in 2010 was due to the lack of production from Benson & Company.

5). How are the last two draft classes coming along?

At Draft Tek we actually graded the 2010 draft class about 2 months ago. You can find our thoughts on all 32 teams, all 7 rounds, pick by pick, here. To sum up the Bengals though, their 2010 draft class finished 17th overall. They did well with early picks, as Gresham, Dunlap, Shipley, and Atkins all look like solid starters/role players. They wiffed a bit towards the end with Hudson & Briscoe (good player, but now in Tampa), though they may have find solid depth along the OL with Stephens. The selections weren’t flashy but I’d say it was good draft to build with. Combining last year’s class with early impact guys in the 1st & 2nd rounds this season could lead to a quick turnaround.

I’m going to have to tell you to “hold on” with my evaluation for the 2009 draft class, as we at Draft Tek are doing the sophomore review as I write this. We hope to have a full 7 round, pick by pick analysis of the 2009 NFL Draft class by the end of March. Stay tuned for that!

6). Thoughts on the TOcho show on versus?

I can proudly say I have not seen a single T.Ocho show. I applaud them for pursuing something they love, off the field. As long as there is no interference with the show & the team/their performance, good for them. I have no problem with players having lives outside football as long as they can separate the two.

7) Tell us a little bit about how the Bengals front office works on draft day?

I really wish I knew how any front office works on draft day, but I have now knowledge how Cincinnati or any NFL team for that matter operates on the big day. I’d assume there’s a large role for the entire front office staff, with final say going to owner Mike Brown, though I’d hope he listens to his GM & coach. Like every team, I’d guess Cincinnati has a “big board” of prospects, ranked & separated by position. It’s also likely the Bengals have certain players marked that they’d be willing to trade up for (less likely this year) and scenarios where they’d trade down because they don’t like the value on the board.

8) Lewis was invovled with the Senior Bowl, does he or the team seem particularly interested or attatched to any of the players from the Senior Bowl?

Marvin Lewis & part of his staff (at the time) coached the North Squad for the 2011 Senior Bowl. However, the only player that I have heard of so far getting some extra attention from Lewis and the Bengals is Michigan State LB Greg Jones. Jones was a star in college but questions about his size & play recognition ability has dropped his stock considerably. He’d most likely be a project at OLB in Cinci’s 4-3, available for a 5th-6th round pick at this point. Before scouts & talent evaluators really focused on his game tape & post season workouts, Jones was considered a borderline 1st rounder. However, his staff is showing interest in 2 Senior Bowl players that his staff did not have as much contact with: Baylor OG Danny Watkins & TCU QB Andy Dalton, who played for the South Squad (Bills coaching staff). Watkins is an interesting prospect. He’s a bit older (will be 27 for start of season) but is a real though & tenacious player; someone who has a mean streak. He has a great build and is very strong at the point of attack. He’d make an intriguing pick in the 3rd round, should he last that long. Dalton is fighting to be the top guy in the 2nd tier of QBs, behind the likes of Gabbert, Newton, Mallett and Locker. He seems to be losing ground to FSUs Ponder though. His stature reminds me of Drew Brees but his play is more reminiscent of a Trent Dilfer/Jeff Garcia spawn. He’d be a reliable, if not flashy QB.

9). Best and worst draft picks in the last 10 years?

Best Bengals pick in last 10 drafts? Well off the bat I’ll discount anyone from ’09 & ’10. I believe you need at least 3 years to properly evaluate a player, so that narrows things a bit. I’d have to consider Justin Smith & T.J. Houshmandzadeh (1st/7th round, 2001), Chad Johnson (2nd round, 2001), Levi Jones (1st round, 2002), Carson Palmer & Eric Steinbach (1st/2nd round, 2003) and Andrew Whitworth (2nd round, 2006). As a 7th rounder, Housh had a great 5 year stretch in Cincinnati from 2004 through 2008. He’s hard to top. In terms of “bang for your buck”, getting a lot of production from someone you don’t expect it from, he’s the guy. No questions asked. For longevity purposes & his overall body of work I’ll go with Chad Johnson, despite the headaches he can cause. However, should Whitworth continue to be a dominant OT it could be him. He’d have to do it for another ~5 years though.

Worst Bengals pick since 2000? This has to be a 1st rounder, no? The demands of an early pick are high so who hasn’t lived up to the hype and/or lofty draft status? Here’s a few to consider: Peter Warrick (4th overall, 2000), Chris Perry (26th overall, 2004)…actually I think that’s it, at least by my criteria. I guess technically the 2000 draft was 11 drafts ago so Chris Perry, come on down, you’re the biggest bust in the last 10 years of Bengals Draft History! Man, was that a bad pick. Here’s who else the Bengals could have had at 26 instead of the maligned Michigan RB: CB Chris Gamble (28th to Panthers), TE Ben Watson (32nd to Patriots), LB Karlos Dansby (33rd to Cardinals), OG Chris Snee (34th to Giants), or SS Bob Sanders (44th to Colts).

10). What’s a player that fans really seem to be interested early in the draft or late?

Well everyone seems to be enamored with Cam Newton because of all the media attention he garners. He’ll go Top 12. I’m sure most fans are interested in how he does on draft day. In the later rounds I’d see people looking for where some big college players fall to. Someone like Oregon State RB Jacquizz Rodgers, Virginia Tech QB Tyrod Taylor, West Virginia RB Noel Divine, Nebraska RB Roy Helu, Wisconsin RB John Clay, Penn State RB Evan Royster and Pitt RB Dion Lewis. All these players were great in college but their game doesn’t translate well to the pros, for one reason or another. I’m sure many fans will be interested to see where these guys go & when – if at all. Most of those guys are currently 5th-7th round prospects. A few may even go undrafted.

11). Tell us a little bit about drafttek and why it’s the second best draft website on the web?

Well I of course think it’s the best, but I’m biased of course! But seriously, the guys at Draft Tek do a wonderful job. We have a pretty unique site filled with a lot of great information. Our mock is different from other sites because of how the results are produced. The full 7 round mock is simulated via computer based on analyst inputs, such as the team needs matrix, where analysts assign priority codes to every football position. In the last few years we’ve made the positions more specific. The matrix now features subcategories for multiple positions, like RB (feature RB vs change-of-pace RB) & WR (feature WR, possession WR, speed WR) on offense as well as splitting up defensive positions based on scheme (43 DT vs 3-4 DT, and so on). Analysts also have the ability to “grab” players instead of relying on the computer code or “lock out” layers that may meet positional criteria but may still not fit what a team is looking for. Not only do we have the standard mock draft (known as our “Consensus Mock Draft” because it combines the minds of ~20 individuals) but we also do some special features, like our past draft grading, as well as have our own big board with over 400+ players. The big board is a huge collaborative effort spearheaded by the famous “Long Ball”, one of the big guys of Draft Tek. I also can’t forget to mention the ODS, or Online Draft Simulator. Here anyone can make their own mock using everything Draft Tek analysts use. Each individual may change our positional priority codes, institute a grab, change the draft order, etc. to simulate how the draft may play out. It’s a unique feature you won’t find anywhere else. In fact, the guys at Blogging the Boys are doing a series of posts using the ODS to determine Cowboys draft results. Definitely give that a look. For those so inclined, you can follow Draft Tek on twitter (@DraftTek) or “like” us on facebook.

12). What’s the news on Jonathan Joseph?

I fully expect Jonathan Joseph to return in 2011. He should be (and apparently is) the teams top priority once free agency begins. He was tendered a restricted free agent offer though no one is sure whether or not he’ll be restricted or unrestricted when the new league year officially starts. Better safe than sorry though. Joseph just finished his 5th season. He won’t come cheap; a lot of the top CBs in the league have recently signed contracts, such as Routt & Bailey. Joseph isn’t as good as the premiere free agent CB, former Raider Nnamdi Asomugha, but he’d certainly be 2nd on the list. The CB pair of Joseph & Hall is consistently underrated and losing Joseph would hurt more than some would think. But I fully expect the Bengals to resign their own, starting with Joseph.

13) Anything else to add?

Thank you for your interest in Draft Tek and the opportunity to answer some Benglas draft questions. If there are any other questions about the Bengals (or Dolphins & Patriots, who I also cover for Draft Tek) or Draft Tek in general, just let me know. Definitely continue to check Draft Tek throughout draft season. We update our big board and computer-simulated mock every week plus we’ll be rolling out our sophomore reviews of the 2009 draft in the next week or two.

Go here for more than 10 interviews from people who cover teams (Ed Valentine of Big Blue View, Lance Zierlein of Houston Chronicle’s Zreport among others).

And check out Joe on his radio show

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Get to know the Bengals: Draftek’s Bengal Analyst

By Jesse Bartolis | Mar 27, 2011