2011 NFL Mock Draft Post-Combine: Dareus or Fairley Number One? 7 Round Mock (part 1)
This is part one of what will be a seven round mock draft, I’ll release a round each day for the next week.
My final mock draft before the draft is going to include more offensive linemen going in the top 25 because it’s one of the most important positions in football and will always be addressed earlier than the big board value indicates. The problem I’m having trouble figuring out is who are the two teams that are going to go OT or bust in the first round?
Bengals? Cardinals? Cowboys? Texans? Lions? Dolphins? Giants?
I think three OL will go in the top 25 when all is said and done and here’s an interesting stat…I looked back from every draft from last year to 1970 and in Every single year at least one offensive linemen came off the board by the 15th pick and almost every draft had at least two off the board by the 20th pick. In scientific communities this would almost be foolproof enough to go from a theory to a law. I don’t see it not happening this year, or less confusingly it will probably hold true this year as well that two OL will be drafted by 20th overall.
Also, I’ve noticed that if three quarterbacks and one or two OL go in the top 12 (Newton, Gabber, and Locker/Mallett/Ponder) and Smith/Solder it will be a great thing for the teams picking after the first half of the draft as there will be some really quality players falling.
This is the first mock were I focused more on addressing needs then finding surprising value picks, or tried to at least.
Let me know what you think.
It is impossible for me or anyone making a mock draft to intimately know the workings of each team, but I’ve tried my best with research, looking at rosters and recent draft selections, but there are definitely teams that I feel more comfortable. If you don’t like a pick let me know and what you think is a route your favorite team might go, this is not a mock of what I would personally do if I were the G.M. of all the teams, but what the teams might do. Hopefully by the 7th round all teams will have sufficiently filled needs and drafted good players.
1. Carolina Panthers-Marcel Dareus
Our Panthers insider, Bill Voth who works for a WSOC-TV News in Charlotte (so he really has a pulse on the Panthers) says that the mood of the Panthers is changing all the time and that they are looking for someone to fall in love with, but right now it’s between Bowers, Fairley, Newton, and Dareus.
I think in the next mock draft I produce, Blaine Gabbert might be the pick, as he’s had a better combine than Newton for some people. Dareus looked more impressive than Fairley at the combine (not surprised he’s been our #1 Defensive tackle the whole time) when one considers Dareus weighed nearly 30 pounds more than Fairley. Fairley was lighter than anticipated and has to answer questions about being a one year wonder and a dirty player. Dareus just makes more sense if the Panthers don’t go Quarterback as both a run stopper and pass rusher combination tackle, whereas teams might consider Fairley a penetrating pass rusher (it is similar to the Suh, McCoy debate last year where Suh was more well rounded and McCoy was a pass rusher…though to a lesser extent as those players were both considered better prospects than Fairley and Dareus).
2. Denver Broncos-DaQuan Bowers, DE, Clemson
We reported awhile ago that the Broncos are very interested in DaQuan Bowers and he hasn’t done anything to change his stock, though he does have a potentially pesky injury. He’s an explosive player, a once big time high school recruit who finally put it together this past season and dominated at Clemson. I will maintain from now until the draft that the Broncos won’t draft Patrick Peterson because the positional value is not great for a cornerback, and Pass rushers are more important. I can’t imagine this pick not being a Defensive linemen now that they are moving from a 4-3 to a 3-4.
Also, I don’t do this often, but Sportingnews (in terms of their draft coverage I don’t love SN) has a good piece on Da’quan Bowers and his musical ability so if you have the time check it out.
3. Buffalo Bills-Von Miller, OLB, Texas A and M
The Bills need a pass rusher to play in the 3-4 if they want their defense to be successful. Right now at 1:15 on Monday: Von Miller has just run a 4.46 40 yard dash (unofficial), after weighing in at 246 pounds (10-15 pounds heavier than people thought he was in college) and impressing at the Senior Bowl (where Chan Gailey was coaching) I think Miller has a good chance of going to the Bills at #3. Even if Merriman returns to form, the Bills still need another OLB. In this mock, Miller is the pick, but I would not rule out a DL or QB…even though they a DL in the 2nd and 3rd rounds of last year’s draft.
4. Cincinnati Bengals-Julio Jones, WR, Alabama
Jones is big, strong, and faster than people expected running a sub 4.4 40 yard dash on an injured foot! On top of that A.J. Green reportedly did not do well in the interview process. In my scouting report of Jones I compared him to a bigger and faster Hakeem Nicks or Anquan Boldin. The risk for injury will always be there because Jones play so physical, but the talent is there too and Jones can be a dominant player in the N.F.L. in all areas of the field including the Red-Zone.
Son of a…I just checked out Wes Bunting’s new mock and he’s put Julio Jones 4th now as well..well I was first I started writing this Monday.
5. Arizona Cardinals-Robert Quinn, DE, OLB North Carolina
Quinn didn’t blow up the combine, but he showed enough to warrant a top 10 selection. Quinn was a potential #1 pick before the college football season started and is a sudden man for his size. The Cardinals like to mix up the 3-4 and the 4-3 and Quinn has the versatility to do both. Last year’s sack leader was Calais Campbell with 6. This is an absolute need pick though it does present value. I’m going to assume that Ken Wisenhunt will pursue a veteran QB (Mcnabb? or Orton?…even though the Broncos have said he’ll be the starter) because he wants to win now. New coaches get more leeway with developing young quarterbacks, not coaches who have been there for some time, which makes me shy away from a QB for the Cardinals at this point.
6. Cleveland Browns-Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
Fairley for a long time has been the #1 pick in most mocks, but I’ve never thought that was the direction Carolina would ultimately go. Fairley will be a great fit for the Browns who need to upgrade their defensive line position. Yes, they do need another WR or weapon for Colt McCoy, but Titus Young, Torrey Smith, Leonard Hankerson, and Kyle Rudolph are all possible options in the early second round and Fairley once considered almost the consensus #1 draft pick is available here and is too enticing to pass up.
7. San Francisco 49ers-Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
Luck be to the 49ers tonight!! Peterson falls in this mock for no good reason, just his position. Defensive linemen are key to success in the N.F.L. more so than cornerbacks, despite Peterson’s pure ability he might not get drafted to represent his big board value (1-3 on most big boards, ours included). The 49ers would break a new record for fastest selection in N.F.L. draft history if Peterson is available at #7 overall…the only thing they have to worry about is the Cowboys moving up from 9 to 6 if he’s available at the Browns pick.
8. Tennessee Titans-A.J. Green, WR, Georgia
Kenny Britt looks to be a stud if he can keep his act together, and a QB is a definite option here at 8, but A.J. Green would be unquestionably the best available player here and too good for the Titans to pass up. Gabbert is a possibility as is Newton, but one good way to improve your pass offense is adding talented Wide Receivers to go with a different QB.
9. Dallas Cowboys-Nate Solder, OT, Colorado
Solder was considered too tall to play LT and bend with ease before the combine, but he’s shown great athletic ability for a man his size and looks like he is a very good potential LT in the league. The Cowboys choose Solder over Smith because the Cowboys have shown a penchant for Bigger offensive linemen, and Smith is not a bigger offensive linemen. If the Cowboys can t get Peterson they shouldn’t’ pass up on Nate Solder here, even though Amukamara is available. Potential Franchise LT > Potential pro bowl CB/S. Don’t hate me Cowboys fans, I do fully recognize that Amukamara could very likely be the pick here, though like I mentioned in the 49ers explanation, if Peterson is available at 6 still I can see the Cowboys moving up for Peterson in a heart-beat.
10. Washington Redskins-Jake Locker, QB, Washington
It’s been reported numerous times all over the place that Shanahan loves Jake Locker and he showed well at the combine and put himself back into the mix for the first round. With the Redskins having so few picks in the draft, they might not feel comfortable waiting to get a quarterback in the second round so they reach for Locker here.
11. Houston Texans-Phil Taylor, NT, Baylor
I think this is Phil Taylor’s ceiling here. The Texans can not run the 3-4 without a nose tackle, I’m not sure they have a nose tackle on their roster as of this moment which means that they may have to reach for Taylor here. Green Bay “reached” for the B.J. Raji when they drafted him, many analysts thought, but without a Good nose tackle the 3-4 defense is doomed. They also need a dynamic 3-4 OLB, but there are a decent amount of those in the draft (Dontay Moch, Sam Acho, Brooks Reed etc. later) and and only a few true nose tackles, none as good as Taylor.
12. Minnesota Vikings-Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri
Leslie Frazier has reportedly said that the Vikings are going to find a QB in the off-season and at this point Gabbert is the choice. Todd McShay’s #1 QB in the draft falls to the Vikings. I don’t love Gabbert, but I think on the Vikings who have good weapons with Adrian Peterson, Sydney Rice, and Percy Harvin already on the team. Gabbert could be successful with the Vikings and think he will be the pick if available.
13. Detroit Lions-Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska
Amukamara is a good value here and the Lions would count their blessings. The reason cornerbacks are falling in this mock draft is because of positional value. DL, OL, QB are more important to a team success than Cornerbacks, even if the Cornerbacks are considered better prospects. The Lions really need to fix up their pass defense and Amukamara could help them out at either cornerback or safety and is a great value pick here at 13th overall.
14. St. Louis Rams-Cameron Jordan, DL, Cal
The Rams need an OLB, and a WR more but Cameron Jordan had a quietly under-appreciated and impressive combine and has the versatility to succeed at DT or DE in the 4-3 Defense. The Rams have a decent defensive line, but they have a lot of age as both James Hall and Fred Robbins are on their last legs, so defensive line is a huge possibility. Corey Liuget is more of a pure 4-3 Defensive tackle than Jordan is, but I have no doubt that Jordan can fit well with the Rams, Spags when he was with the Giants, liked moving Justin Tuck inside and outside and Jordan can be that kind of player as a great run stopping DE and plus pass rusher.
15. Miami Dolphins-Mikel LeShoure, RB, Illinois
Mark Ingram usually goes here, but I’ll just put LeShoure here as a little different take. The Miami Herald as reported by us weeks ago that the Dolphins will take either a QB or a Running back at this point in the draft. Let’s assume that Newton rubbed the Dolphins the wrong way in interviews so they pass on him here. Although I think it makes wayyyy more sense to trade down and draft an OL, I’m going to trust that the Miami Herald has better contacts than I do and mock the Dolphins a running back, despite my displeasure for that pick (I actually am for taking talented RB in the first round, but only for teams on the cusp and with the Dolphins being minus a second round pick, it’s just not a great idea to me for them to take a RB early).
16. Jacksonville Jaguars-Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue
Ryan Kerrigan just seems like a Jaguars kind of player and fills a big need for the Jaguars. They have spend the last two off-seasons upgrading their line (OL two years ago, DT last year), but they still need help at defensive end because Aaron Kampan is not the future at defensive end for the Jaguars. Kerrigan has a non-stop motor and has been impressive in the pre-draft process. Kerrigan is too enticing for the Jaguars to pass up here.
17. New England Patriots-J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin
J.J. Watt has looked impressive and could actually find himself in the top 10 in this year’s draft (Cowboys at 9 if Solder and Amukamara are both gone), but the way this mock draft works out all of the teams fix their Quarterback problems so that doesn’t happen in this mock draft, but it’s possible so keep an eye out for Watt rising up the draft boards, even up to as high as #6 at Cleveland.
18. San Diego Chargers-Martez Wilson, LB, UCLA
The Chargers middle linebackers are nothing special, but Martez Wilson is a versatile linebacker who will be productive in the N.F.L.. There are many differing opinions about where Wilson’s best position is, whether that be outside in the 3-4, inside in the 3-4, outside in the 4-3, or even DE in the 4-3. The problem is Wilson doesn’t have a great spot, but the solution is Wilson is a good player and will fit somewhere on a team and be a good player in the N.F.L. Wilson is one of those players who could be much better in the N.F.L. then he was in college. After running an unofficial 4.44 40 yard dash Wilson doesn’t make it out of the top 20 because of his pure pass rush ability and his tremendous size to speed ratio (he was also a good college player so it’ s not all about the combine).
19. New York Giants-Tyron Smith, OT, USC
The Giants love to draft best player available on their big board and will do that again in this draft, but in this scenario there are five other intriguing possibilities for the NY Giants other than Smith.
The first will be Jimmy Smith a 6-2 CB with good speed. The Giants love HUGE potential players and Smith fits that mold. Second is Aldon Smith. By now even non Giants fans know the philosophy of you can never have too many pass rushers. Smith is tempting. Third we have Mark Ingram because the Giants seem likely to keep either Bradshaw or Jacobs only. Ingram is the kind of tough, all around running back that Coughlin will love. Fourth is Martez Wilson who ran an unofficial 4.44 40 yard dash if available (in this mock he’s not). And 5th is Akeem Ayers who fits the Giants mold of bigger linebackers…
And while I’ve been adamant that the Giants aren’t as likely to draft an OL as everyone makes it seem, there are two OL I don’t think they can pass up: Solder or Smith. If either of those OL are available I think they are locks to be the Giants picks.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers-Aldon Smith, DE, Missouri
Aldon Smith is a J.P.P. clone (more of a double), a player who can be a versatile linemen (or also a 3-4 rush OLB), with his tremendous quickness and athletic ability. The two differences between Aldon Smith and J.P.P. is 1) J.P.P. is bigger and slightly more athletic (emphasis on slightly)…2) Aldon Smith was MUCH more productive in college.
At this point in the draft he’s a gem.
21. Kansas City Chiefs-Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama
Ingram falls into the lap of the Kansas City Chiefs at this juncture because he doesn’t run a blazing 40 and the Dolphins go with LeShoure over Ingram. Thomas Jones is on his last legs and even then last year he only averaged 3.7 yards per carry for the season and wore down late. If the Chiefs want to remain a good running team they have to continue to add talent at the running back position and along the offensive line. Ingram allows the Chiefs to release Thomas Jones if they choose (though they have been adamant he’ll be a focus again this upcoming season). I don’t think this is a fan favorite pick, but it’s one I think they will consider if he’s available.
22. Indianapolis Colts-Anthony Castanzo, OT, Boston College
I think Carimi and Sherrod should be considered better players than Castanzo, but Castanzo fits the Colts mold more than the other two. Castanzo has had a nice combine and the Colts will over look his lack of elite athleticism and huge size. Castanzo is still solid value here despite my preference for Sherrod and Carimi.
23. Philadelphia Eagles-Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois
I continue to see Liuget has a lock for the first round so at this point I don’t see how the Eagles can pass him up. They could use more youth at the defensive tackle position and the Eagles almost always take a linemen in the first round. At this point they have to choose between Liuget and Sherrod or Carimi (or Jimmy Smith) and choose Liuget. Eagles fans are going to want the Eagles to draft either an OL or a cornerback, but I can see them taking Liuget if available.
24. New Orleans Saints-Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado
Smith could go much higher than this (as high as #7 if he’s the 49er’s second rated cornerback) or lower if teams didn’t like his interviews which reportedly they didn’t. Smith here is not the biggest need, but the best player (other than Brandon Harris). Rahim Moore could be an option. Kyle Rudolph, even though they released Shockey, is not an option to me. They like Jimmy Graham and he seems poised to have a good season next year ( Fantasy Football Sleeper alert).
25. Seattle Seahawks-Cam Newton, QB, Auburn
McShay is saying that Newton’s interviews did not go well according to teams and scouts which could really push his stock down because as we always hear the most important part of the combine process is the interview process (I don’t have any true inside information about Newton’s interviews so I can’t dispute what McShay says). Newton also came off as a rock-star to many and there might be a lot of teams that need Quarterbacks that are worried about his makeup, which pushes him down in this particular mock draft (I’m sure he’ll rise up again in future mock drafts because he’s a winner and his talent is undeniable). Newton also has to answer about his character issues. That’s before we even mentioned that he completed about 5o percent of his passes at the combine when no one was covering the Wide Receivers. So this is the established floor for Cam Newton, though he is likely to be drafted higher in April. It only takes one.
26. Baltimore Ravens-Jonathan Baldwin,WR, Pittsburgh
Baldwin is quick for his size and has great size. He has the “character concern” label, but this is the Ravens we’re talking about so that’s not really a huge deterrent with the leadership in that locker room. Flacco took a small step backwards last year and the WR corps of the Ravens is on the wrong side of 30. Baldwin would add a nice dynamic to the Ravens offense, and at this point is the best player available.
27. Atlanta Falcons-Stephen Paea, DT, Oregon State
Paea is an absolute monster with his strength. Paea was also super productive at Oregon State and will fit in nicely with the Falcons. Although the Falcons need a DE to be the eventual replacement of John Abraham Paea is a better value at this point. The Falcons have a lot of talent and can really afford to go in any direction they want to, and in this mock they add talent to the defensive line.
28. New England Patriots-Brandon Harris, CB, The U
Based on the rest of my mock turned out the Patriots should take Brandon Harris. I love Brandon Harris and have compared him to Darrelle Revis coming out of college because of his swagger, tenacity, and fluid hips (that’s really the biggest reason why I think they play similar). Will Harris turn into the next Darrelle Revis? That’s impossible to know, but he’s tremendous value here at 28th overall and with both Akeem Ayers and Justin Houston still on the board the Patriots should be able to grab one of those players at the top of the 2nd round so they don’t need to take one here.
29. Chicago Bears-Derrick Sherrod, OT, Mississippi State
I don’t think Sherrod gets enough love as an OT and think he’s maybe the best overall OT in the draft. He doesn’t have the upside of Solder or Smith, but he’s solid in all areas and versatile enough to excel at RT or LT. Gabe Carimi is a RT, Sherrod is either and is great value at 29 for the Bears as they continue to look to improve their offense to pair with their excellent defense. Sherrod is one step in that direction of solving their offensive woes and as long as the Bears can find another good WR too they should be fine next year.
30. New York Jets-Akeem Ayers, UCLA
This would have to be ideal for the New York Jets. I don’t really think that Ayers will fall this far just because of a poor forty yard dash, he just happened to in this mock draft. Ayers has tremendous upside because he’s a fluid athlete and has good size, he also has play making skills. Ayers could be the player to take this Jets defense to another level. I mocked this pick before the Jets released Damien Woody so Gabe Carimi becomes a real possibility here.
31. Pittsburgh Steelers-Rahim Moore, S, UCLA
Troy Polamalu is a very good player, but he gets dinged up and hurt and there isn’t anything special behind Polmalu on the depth chart or next to him on the field. By adding Moore the Steelers would do a better job of protecting the deep middle of the field and create even more turnovers. Last year Moore had 10 interceptions. He is a ball hawk and could excel playing on a team that can create pressure with the proficiency that the Pittsburgh Steelers can on defense. Moore might have a Jarius Byrd like rookie season if he was drafted and won the starting job in Pittsburgh next year. I think Steelers fans will hate this pick, which I understand, but they have to protect themselves against a Polamalu injury and they thrive on their defense being able to turn the ball over which is an area that Moore really shines in. Pouncey is Very possible here, though I don’t think he’s as good as his brother and shouldn’t be a lock for the first round.
32. Green Bay Packers-Mike Pouncey, G/C, Florida
The Packers always take the Best player on their board (which is the right thing to do) and in this instance I’ll say it’s Pouncey. Pouncey, gets unfairly compared to his brother who was the superior prospect, but Pouncey’s not bad. His versatility would add depth all along the Packers offensive line and he could win a starting job this year or next. It was just announced that the Packers have released A.J. Hawk though Schefer thinks Hawk is coming back for less money, ultimately so I won’ t factor in that release until he signs elsewhere.
Let us know what you think. Remember I”m looking for feedback from you readers, the experts for your team to modify and improve the accuracy of the picks moving forward…and be sure to check back tomorrow for Round two where the mock will start to take shape.
Follow us on twitter @NFLmocks where we are going to try and do a mock draft through twitter this weekend and if you follow us you’ll be able to participate.
Click here to return to the homepage.
Round two will come out tomorrow.