Newton Should Go No. 1, But Not To Panthers

In 1983, a boy in Cleveland was enamored with a shiny toy. Even though his mother and teacher both warned against its dangers, he wanted that toy more than anything in the whole world.

At the end of the day, Ralphie got that Red Ryder bb gun for Christmas, and he almost did shoot his eye out.

The NFL Draft is kind of like Christmas for certain decision makers around the league. Some go for the more practical gifts, like a crock pot. It’s not exciting, but it gets the job done. Others want that Red Ryder bb gun. It’s all the rage, but it comes with risks.

With more than eight weeks until the NFL Draft, the Carolina Panthers have plenty of time to find a Ralphie among those decision makers. And once they do, they should trade out of the top spot for a pile of more sensible presents.

Of course, what that assumes is Newton’s not a good choice for the Panthers at number one. Why? Let us count the ways.

More than 300 players were invited to the NFL Combine, but this weekend, it seemed like Newton was the only guy that mattered. That’s understandable. Everyone has an opinion about him. He’s the most polarizing figure heading into this year’s draft. He’s the 2011 version of the 2010 Tim Tebow.

When a chiseled Newton started performing, jaws started dropping. Decked out in sleek gear provided by his new sponsor, Under Armour, Newton blazed in the 40-yard dash. An unofficial time of 4.58? That’s ridiculous for a quarterback his size.

Then he uncorked a broad jump that measured 10’6”. Quarterbacks built like him aren’t supposed to jump like that.

That’s fantastic for a situation like this: On 4th and 3, if the defense decides to line up near the sideline, Newton can just jump for a first down.

But running in a straight line and jumping from a standing position aren’t common occurrences in actual NFL games. So perhaps we learned more from Newton’s performance throwing the ball, since, you know, that’s actually relevant to his position.

“It was a pop quiz, and he didn’t ace it”, said Newton’s personal QBs coach George Whitfield.

I’m not good at math, but 11-of-21 on accuracy drills is slightly over 50 percent. 1-of-6 on 10-yard outs? Whitfield’s right. That’s not “acing” anything.

To be fair, Newton did show great arm strength and a decent release. His timing may have been a bit off throwing to unfamiliar receivers. And it’s tough to firmly judge after such a small sample size. But it’s clear Newton’s a work in progress.

Not only are there questions about the accuracy of his arm, but perhaps the biggest concerns surrounding Newton have to do with his head.

First of all, will he be able to grasp the complexities of a pro offense? The NFL landscape is littered with quarterbacks who failed after running a spread option offense at the college level, including Andre Ware, David Klinger, Tim Couch, Akili Smith, Alex Smith, and more. The list of busts provides as much comic relief as a Charlie Sheen rant.

Perhaps with time and an incredible amount of work, Newton can become the exception to the rule. But according to league history, the odds are stacked heavily against him.

Listen, what Newton did for Auburn this past year was remarkable. He had one of the greatest seasons in college football history. He was right when he said “I did something in one year people couldn’t do in their whole collegiate careers”.

But one amazing collegiate season does not make you a future star. So it’s not surprising his other controversial comment this week, “I see myself not only as a football player, but an entertainer and icon”, ruffled plenty of feathers.

It’s going to be tough for Newton to run away from the “icon” comment. That’s a word the Lebron James’ of the world use. If you’re an NFL quarterback, stuff like that just doesn’t fly.

Despite his scripted explanation Saturday, it’s hard to tell whether Newton truly does see himself as an icon. There’s a suspicion in some circles that if he’s put under the NFL spotlight, his head might explode from out under his helmet.

In a recent column on NFL.com, Albert Breer wrote, “I was told back in January there were concerns among scouts that late in Newton’s time at Auburn that ‘major music and film stars’ were starting to circle around the quarterback.”

If Newton wants to hang with celebrities, that’s obviously his prerogative. If he wants to be a huge celebrity himself, that’s fine. But what’s not fine is he hasn’t done anything yet on an NFL field to warrant that stardom.

Oh yeah, and we haven’t even gotten to the part about his past yet. Unless you were living under a rock this past fall, you may have read about stolen computers and academic cheating. You may have heard the name “Cecil Newton” a time or 2 million.

Newton comes with a significant amount of baggage. Combine that with the fact that he’s a project, and he’s not a good fit for the Panthers at number one. And unless Jerry Richardson suddenly turns into Jerry Jones and until Marty Hurney gives up more than 50 percent of the decision making, I don’t think the team will make him their pick.

Kerry Collins was the only quarterback the Panthers ever drafted in the first round, and there’s some thought that Richardson’s still scarred by Collins’s off-the-field problems. That, combined with the Rae Carruth incident, convinced the owner to essentially send down an edict that character trumps talent.

Hurney’s been able to stay in Richardson’s good graces by carrying the franchise flag. Even though he can turn into his trade-happy mentor Bobby Bethard on draft day, Hurney tends to be as conservative as his boss. Drafting Newton would easily be Hurney’s biggest risk, a risk that may not be in his DNA.

Sure, there’s a chance a new regime could mean a new mindset. Head coach Ron Rivera and offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski may fall head-over-heels in love with Newton’s potential. But throughout his nine seasons in Charlotte, John Fox rarely had more than a 50/50 split with Hurney regarding personnel decisions. It’s doubtful that after just a few months on the job, Rivera and Chudzinski could convince Hurney to roll the dice on Newton.

The Panthers have many holes, and yes, there’s actually a crater at the quarterback position. Whether it’s by trade or free agency, they need to bring in someone that can help fill it. But using their top pick on a long-term project like Newton doesn’t seem like a good idea. Actually, since there isn’t a player in this draft that’s a sure-fire number one choice, the best idea is to get out of the top spot.

Believe it or not, the Panthers have talent. Stewart, Goodson, Kalil, Gross, Beason, Davis — that’s a solid base for a team that was 2-14. But again, there are plenty of holes, and that’s why trading out of the top spot and getting more picks in return, is the smartest strategy for the Panthers.

Obviously, if you’re going to trade out, you need a partner. And guess what a handful of teams at the top of this draft need? A quarterback.

Let’s assume the Panthers don’t see Newton as a future franchise quarterback. It doesn’t hurt them to at least pretend he’s their guy. A “tip” to the media here, a private workout there, it can all add up to some nice politicking. I have no doubt the Panthers will do their due diligence on Newton. Perhaps he can win over Richardson and Hurney. But I don’t see it happening.

Meanwhile, there may be other teams that actually do see Newton as a can’t miss talent. A quick glance at the top 10 spots in the draft shows at least a couple clubs that a.) could be in the market for a quarterback and b.) have made many questionable personnel decisions in the past.

The Cincinnati Bengals are sitting at number four. Carson Palmer has reportedly demanded a trade. The team appears to be moving on as if he’s not part of their future. Oh, and the Bengals, their draft decisions aren’t very strong.

Or how about the Washington Redskins at number 10? At head coach, you have “offensive mastermind” Mike Shanahan. And as an owner, there’s Daniel Snyder. If there’s ever been a guy who sees and then gets what he wants — it’s Snyder. If he gets just a sniff of Newton, there’s no telling how many picks he’d give up.

Essentially, if the NFL Draft is Christmas Day, we’re at the end of October right now. Guys like Snyder and Bengals owner Mike Brown are just about to start looking for all the hot items.

The best case scenario for the Panthers is for just one NFL front office to play the role of Ralphie. Someone’s going to want that Red Ryder bb gun. Newton may be the shiny toy of the 2011 NFL Draft, but ultimately, “you’ll shoot your eye out kid.”