Andrew Luck’s Decision

As you lay on your couch watching NFL football you will hear just about every analyst speak about how it is a quarterback driven league.  The majority of top quarterbacks end up on their team via the NFL draft and more often than not are selected within the top 5 picks.  The consensus top quarterback eligible for the 2011 NFL Draft is Andrew Luck of Stanford.  Luck is not only the top rated quarterback but also the top overall prospect but he is only a 3rd year Sophomore and has a big decision to make.  Below we look at some of the factors going into his decision and then finally our prediction.

• To me the top factor impacting Luck’s decision has to be the future of his coach Jim Harbaugh.  ESPN’s Adam Schefter is reporting that there is next to a zero chance Harbaugh returns to Stanford.  Harbaugh is expected to be pursed by NFL teams such as the 49ers and Broncos.  The fall back spot for Harbaugh is his almimatter Michigan who are expected to replace coach Rich Rodiquez.  You can not discount the relationship between Luck and Harbaugh.  It if very unlikely that Stanford will be able to bring in a coach of Harbaugh’s caliber and that may stunt Luck’s growth.
• When your projected to go in the top end of the NFL draft you can get a sense of where you might end up being selected.  The top end of the 2011 NFL draft has been set with Carolina owning the first pick followed by the Broncos, Bills, and Bengals.  Luck is going to sit back and consider whether or not he is open to playing for one of these organizations.  Several years ago we seen a big controversy when Eli Manning stated he would not play for the San Diego Chargers and was traded to the Giants.  Maybe Luck doesnt want to play in Carolina or Buffalo and decides to return to school in hopes that a more attractive franchise holds the #1 pick in the 2012 draft.
• A lot has been made about a possible lock out next season in the NFL.  Luck needs to think about the impact a potential lock out could have on his contract and development.  It’s almost a given that a rookie pay scale will be put into effect but nobody is 100% sure about anything.  The other part of this is without an agreement between the Players and Owners Luck might not be able to get the coaching support he needs to be ready for the opening of the season.

Looking over the above factors I have come to the conclusion that Andrew Luck will enter the 2011 NFL Draft.  To me the biggest factor into his decision will be the loss of his coach Jim Harbaugh.  Harbaugh the former NFL quarterback has done a great job teaching Luck the ins and outs of being a quarterback.  It will be hard for Stanford to find someone else that can bring that type of experience to the sideline.