College Football Weekly Update

Weekend Of Upsets

Three of the top six went down this weekend with each losing to an unranked team. 4th ranked Ole Miss was defeated by South Carolina, 5th ranked Penn State was beaten by Iowa for the seventh time in six games and 6th ranked California was destroyed by Oregon 42-3.

While many were very surprised by these outcomes, I don’t think any of these upsets should have shocked anyone. Ole Miss was overhyped from the get-go. They had a pretty good team last season, but still lost four games, but they did win two huge games in 2008. They were the only team to defeat Florida (and did it in Gainesville) and also defeated a former #1 – Texas Tech, in the Cotton Bowl. After the season, Ole Miss lost their two best players in the first round of the NFL Draft – DT Peria Jerry (24th overall to Atlanta) and OT Michael Oher (23rd overall to Baltimore). You can’t lose your best player on both your offensive and defense line and expect there not to be a drop-off. Add Greg Hardy, Ole Miss’ star defensive end, who has been banged up since Ole Miss’ week one win over Memphis and you’ve got yourself some trouble.

In fact, I, along with many others, picked South Carolina to win the game. The Gamecocks defeated a pretty good NC State team in Raleigh and suffered their only loss in the closing seconds against Georgia. The Gamecocks had a chance to win the game but a 4th down pass inside the Georgia 10-yard line fell incomplete.

Penn State’s loss is a little more surprising to me, but it probably should not have been. Kirk Ferentz and the Hawkeyes have now beaten Penn State seven of the last eight times they have played them. Penn State has posted very good records since 2005, but they don’t have a whole lot of impressive victories. They were blown out in the Rose Bowl by USC last season after finishing the regular season 11-1 and winning the Big 10 Championship. I’m not sure that Penn State has the talent to be an actual National Championship contender. I don’t think they have the athletes at all positions to run with teams like Florida, Texas and Southern Cal and they have proven that over the last few seasons. Although they are having much more success than Florida State, I think Penn State is in a similar situation – both teams are being held back from reaching the truly elite level by their Hall-Of-Fame Head Coaches – the reason those teams became elite programs in the first place.

California’s blowout loss to Oregon came out of nowhere. Just last week, I said that I would cast my Heisman vote for Jahvid Best and although I did say that I didn’t trust California as a team outside of Best, there’s no way I expected Oregon, with a struggling Quarterback, to blow to Bears out of the water. Coming into the contest against Cal, Oregon QB Jeremiah Masoli was just 29-64 with 379 yards, 0 TDs and 2 INTs, including a 4-16 performance in a win over Utah a week ago. Against Cal, Masoli was 21-25 for 253 yards with 3 TDs and 0 INTs.

I’m not totally surprised that the Ducks won, especially since the game was played in Autzen Stadium, but the score is just unbelievable. Jahvid Best had just 55 yards on 16 carries, essentially taking him out of the Heisman Race.

So What Does This Say About Boise State?

Oregon has defeated Purdue and two former unbeaten, ranked teams- Utah and California. The Ducks have bounced back from the season-opening loss and the loss of their star Running Back. They have looked very good lately and worked their way back into the top 25, so what does all of this say about Boise State?

The Broncos dominated the Ducks in a week one win. They defeated Oregon 19-8 and held the Ducks to just 152 yards compared to the 524 yards that Oregon gained on California.

Last week, Boise State played an overmatched Bowling Green team and absolutely dominated, winning 49-14. Games like this tell us nothing, which is why you have to admire teams like BYU and TCU who are in a situation that is very similar to Boise State’s, but schedule much tougher competition. BYU has already played Oklahoma and Florida State, while TCU just went into South Carolina and came out with a win over Clemson.

There really isn’t anything standing in between Boise and an undefeated season and there hasn’t been since their week one win. Because of the schedule the Broncos play, we will never really know how good they are until the season ends, which is unfortunate for college football fans across the country. It’s also unfortunate for the Broncos because it gives them to chance to make a BCS National Championship game.

Florida State and Miami Back? Guess Not.

After a classic week one matchup between the ‘Canes and the ‘Noles, which was decided on a last second dropped pass by FSU giving Miami a one-point win, it looked like both teams may be “back.” I was skeptical after a week and FSU gave me even more reason to be skeptical after they had to score with less than a minute left to avoid losing at home to Jacksonville State.

Then, a week later, Miami dominated Georgia Tech 33-17 and Florida State absolutely destroyed 7th ranked BYU, rolling up over 500 yards of offense in a 54-28 win. Things were once again looking pretty in the sunshine state, but it didn’t last.

Florida State had one of their worst performances in years Saturday as they were defeated by the South Florida Bulls 17-7 in Tallahassee. Miami proved that they aren’t quite ready to be back on the national radar and that their fast climb in the rankings was a bit premature.

Both teams had their QBs struggle somewhat after both had looked like All Americans through the first three games. FSU QB Christian Ponder wasn’t too bad, going 25-37 for 269 yards, but he had a costly fumble that set up a USF FG that essentially ended the game. Ponder is completing 66.2% of his passes, had 4 TDs and just one INT so I still think a QB is one thing that the FSU coaching staff has finally found.

Jacory Harris looked nearly invincible in his first two starts, but then he ran into a very good defense that was the first team able to get pressure on the sophomore signal-caller. The Hokies held him to just nine completions on 25 attempts. He had an interception and a fumble. There will still be some growing pains because Harris is very young, but Miami has also found their QB.

Miami’s defense has been shaky, giving up 34, 17, and 31 points, but it is obvious that the team is on the right track.

Florida State, on the other hand, I’m not so sure about. There are a lot of problems with the Seminoles.They need a fresh start and that all starts with letting their Offensive Coordinator and Head Coach in Waiting actually become the Head Coach. Bobby Bowden is a legend. He built a terrible team into a program that had the most impressive 14 year run in the history of college football and as much as I respect Coach Bowden; it’s time for him to let it go. The ‘Noles need a young, charismatic Head Coach like Jimbo Fisher.

Even if Bowden doesn’t leave after the season, it is likely that Defensive Coordinator Mickey Andrews will, which is probably a good thing for FSU. Andrews and the whole defensive staff need an overhaul. FSU hasn’t had a typical dominating defense in quite some time and currently ranked 115th against the pass. They have no pass rush and their secondary has been awful. At times, their defense looks lost. If Fisher soon becomes the Head coach and is able to put together his own staff, the ‘Noles can potentially get back to where they want to be. Fisher has not proven himself to be the right man for the job yet, but he has showed some positive signs. No one will really know what Fisher can do until he has complete control of the team and is able to make his own decisions about his own coaching staff.

And if that’s not the case, there’s always Brian Kelly…

Performance of the Week

Jeremiah Masoli, QB, Oregon After being criticized for his disastrous start to the season, the Junior Quarterback silenced his critics. Masoli threw just four incompletions, going 21-25 for 253 with three touchdowns on Saturday. Oregon destroyed 6th ranked Cal 42-3 and Masoli was largely responsible.

“On offense the sky’s the limit for us,” Masoli said with confidence. “We’re the only ones who can hurt us. These last couple of weeks we’ve been in a funk, but today we moved past that.”

The Heisman Favorite

Last week, I hopped on the Jahvid Best bandwagon but after his 16-carry, 55-yard performance in a 42-3 loss to Oregon, Best has pretty much lost any hope to take home the hardware. It looks like the two frontrunners remain the same – the 2007 Heisman Trophy winner, Florida QB Tim Tebow and Texas QB, Colt McCoy.

Tebow may have had the flu but he looked like his normal self against Kentucky after a less than average performance against Tennessee. He was 5-10 for just 44 yards and a TD but had 16 carries for 123 yards and 2 TDs before he left the game late in the third quarter after suffering a concussion with a 31-7 lead. Tebow continues to put up pedestrian passing numbers but he continues to run well, rarely turns the ball over and keeps leading his team to victory.

The big question about Tebow this week is why he was in the game in the third quarter with a 24-point lead. A case could be made that the Florida Coach Urban Meyer should have had Tebow out because he was sick. Under normal circumstances, there’s no Head Coach in the country that would have their starting QB out with a 24 point lead in only the third quarter. Hits are put of football and with how often Tebow runs the ball and takes hit, this was bound to happen. It seems like he is fine and will be good to go in the highly anticipated showdown with LSU on October 10.

Colt McCoy has been pretty good as well but could be playing much better. McCoy was 28-35 for 286 yards with 3 TDs in a 64-7 win over Utep on Saturday. He is now 103-145 with 1,145 yards and 9 TDs. He also has rushed for a TD. These are Heisman-like numbers on a top team, but his interception numbers are worrying me. He has thrown at least one interception in each game this season and has five total for the season. Although Tebow is just 44-68 for 643 yards and 6 TDs, his rushing (271 yards, 5 TDs) and his ability to make good decisions (just one interception on an incredible catch by Eric Berry) keeps him atop the list for now. McCoy will have plenty of chances to move back ahead of Tebow and I won’t be surprised if he does.

Last week, I mentioned Jacory Harris as a potential dark horse, but he played himself right out of that (see above).

Houston QB Case Keenum may no longer be a dark horse contender because he has now lead his team to wins over two Big 12 teams – Oklahoma State and Texas Tech. Keenum is 93-134 for 1,160 yards with 8 TDs and 2 INTs. He also has three rushing TDs, giving him more total yards then either Tebow or McCoy and more total TDs then both. He has also thrown just two interceptions and his last touchdown Saturday was a four yard run with :49 left and his team trailing by five.

Cincinnati QB Tony Pike is 93-132 for 1223 yards and 11 TDs with just two interceptions. He also has two rushing TDs . He had lead his team to road wins at Big East rival Rutgers and at Oregon State.

Notre Dame QB Jimmy Clausen played his worst game of the season against Purdue Saturday. He threw his first interception in that game and threw for just 171 yards after passing for 300 or more yards in each of his first three games, but Clausen still hit Kyle Rudolph for the game winning TD with :25 leading Notre Dame to their second straight come from behind win. Clausen is 77-117 with1,122 yards with 10 TDs and one interception.

My Top 15

The more I see out of teams, the more teams I will rank, eventually giving an entire Top 25.

1. Florida
2. Alabama
3. Texas
4. LSU
5. Boise State
6. Virginia Tech
7. Cincinnati
8. Houston
9. Oklahoma
10. USC
11. Ohio State
12. TCU
13. Iowa
14. Oregon
15. Oklahoma State

Game of the Week

LSU @ Georgia

The Line: Georgia -3

In week one, the Dogs looked like they were going to have a lot of trouble on offense after 24-10 loss to Oklahoma State in Stillwater but since then the Dogs have lit up the scoreboard. They scored 41 points against a South Carolina defense that held QB Russell Wilson and NC State to just three points Jevon Snead and Ole Miss to just 10 points. They also scored 52 points at Arkansas before struggling to win 20-17 at home against Arizona State. The Dogs held the Sun Devils to just 204 yards and had 334 yards themselves but had they had three turnovers, including two Joe Cox interceptions that kept the Sun Devils in the game. Luckily for the Dogs, they bounced back and got themselves in position to win the game on a last second field goal. If they make those kind of mistakes against the Tigers, they won’t be so lucky.

LSU also struggled last weekend. Mississippi State had first and goal at the 2 with less than two minutes to play and LSU stopped the Bulldogs all four times, leaving Starkville with a 30-26 victory. LSU didn’t look good at all. The Bulldogs had over 100 more total yards than the Tigers, but committed four turnovers while LSU did not turn the ball over. The Tigers managed just 30 yards rushing – that’s not going to cut it.

If this game becomes another shootout, I think it will favor the Dogs considering they have already beat two pretty good teams in that style of a game. However, I think LSU got a wake-up call last week and will not allow that to happen.

I like LSU in this game. I don’t think that they will be looking ahead to the Florida game and I think their defense is going to force Joe Cox and the Georgia offense into mistakes because of LSU’s ability to shut down the Georgia running game. LSU’s talented WRs should be able to take advantage of these mistakes. Plus, the Tigers have already gone into one hostile environment (Washington) and come out with a victory.

Upset Alert

I was going to take Michigan State over Michigan but then I saw that the Spartans are actually a two-point favorite.

I’m going to put Georgia Tech on upset alert. The Jackets must travel to Starkville to take on Mississippi State. I’m not going to pick the Bulldogs to win the game but their near upset of LSU should give them some confidence against a Tech team that may be looking ahead to their next two games – a game in Tallahassee with the Seminoles and matchup at home against Virginia Tech in two weeks that could put Georgia Tech right back in the mix for an ACC title.

Other Potential Upsets:

UCLA @ Stanford – 5.5

Stanford is coming off a huge win over Washington, but the Bruins have played well. They are 3-0 and have two non-conference BCS wins (@Tennessee, Kansas State).

NC State @ Wake Forest – 2.5 I expect this one to happen. NC State has the more talented team.

USC – 5 @ Cal

Cal is coming off a terrible performance against Oregon by any team going on the road with a freshman Quarterback and a lot of inexperience has the potential to struggle.

(Andrew Melnick is Howard the Dunk’s lead blogger. Subscribe to his RSS feed and add him on Twitter to follow him daily.)