Three of the top six went down this weekend with each losing to an unranked team. 4th ranked Ole Miss was defeated by South Carolina, 5th ranked Penn State was beaten by Iowa for the seventh time in six games and 6th ranked California was destroyed by Oregon 42-3.

While many were very surprised by these outcomes, I don’t think any of these upsets should have shocked anyone. Ole Miss was overhyped from the get-go. They had a pretty good team last season, but still lost four games, but they did win two huge games in 2008. They were the only team to defeat Florida (and did it in Gainesville) and also defeated a former #1 – Texas Tech, in the Cotton Bowl. After the season, Ole Miss lost their two best players in the first round of the NFL Draft – DT Peria Jerry (24th overall to Atlanta) and OT Michael Oher (23rd overall to Baltimore). You can’t lose your best player on both your offensive and defense line and expect there not to be a drop-off. Add Greg Hardy, Ole Miss’ star defensive end, who has been banged up since Ole Miss’ week one win over Memphis and you’ve got yourself some trouble.

In fact, I, along with many others, picked South Carolina to win the game. The Gamecocks defeated a pretty good NC State team in Raleigh and suffered their only loss in the closing seconds against Georgia. The Gamecocks had a chance to win the game but a 4th down pass inside the Georgia 10-yard line fell incomplete.

Penn State’s loss is a little more surprising to me, but it probably should not have been. Kirk Ferentz and the Hawkeyes have now beaten Penn State seven of the last eight times they have played them. Penn State has posted very good records since 2005, but they don’t have a whole lot of impressive victories. They were blown out in the Rose Bowl by USC last season after finishing the regular season 11-1 and winning the Big 10 Championship. I’m not sure that Penn State has the talent to be an actual National Championship contender. I don’t think they have the athletes at all positions to run with teams like Florida, Texas and Southern Cal and they have proven that over the last few seasons. Although they are having much more success than Florida State, I think Penn State is in a similar situation – both teams are being held back from reaching the truly elite level by their Hall-Of-Fame Head Coaches – the reason those teams became elite programs in the first place.

California’s blowout loss to Oregon came out of nowhere. Just last week, I said that I would cast my Heisman vote for Jahvid Best and although I did say that I didn’t trust California as a team outside of Best, there’s no way I expected Oregon, with a struggling Quarterback, to blow to Bears out of the water. Coming into the contest against Cal, Oregon QB Jeremiah Masoli was just 29-64 with 379 yards, 0 TDs and 2 INTs, including a 4-16 performance in a win over Utah a week ago. Against Cal, Masoli was 21-25 for 253 yards with 3 TDs and 0 INTs.

I’m not totally surprised that the Ducks won, especially since the game was played in Autzen Stadium, but the score is just unbelievable. Jahvid Best had just 55 yards on 16 carries, essentially taking him out of the Heisman Race.

So What Does This Say About Boise State?

Oregon has defeated Purdue and two former unbeaten, ranked teams- Utah and California. The Ducks have bounced back from the season-opening loss and the loss of their star Running Back. They have looked very good lately and worked their way back into the top 25, so what does all of this say about Boise State?

The Broncos dominated the Ducks in a week one win. They defeated Oregon 19-8 and held the Ducks to just 152 yards compared to the 524 yards that Oregon gained on California.

Last week, Boise State played an overmatched Bowling Green team and absolutely dominated, winning 49-14. Games like this tell us nothing, which is why you have to admire teams like BYU and TCU who are in a situation that is very similar to Boise State’s, but schedule much tougher competition. BYU has already played Oklahoma and Florida State, while TCU just went into South Carolina and came out with a win over Clemson.

There really isn’t anything standing in between Boise and an undefeated season and there hasn’t been since their week one win. Because of the schedule the Broncos play, we will never really know how good they are until the season ends, which is unfortunate for college football fans across the country. It’s also unfortunate for the Broncos because it gives them to chance to make a BCS National Championship game.

Florida State and Miami Back? Guess Not.

After a classic week one matchup between the ‘Canes and the ‘Noles, which was decided on a last second dropped pass by FSU giving Miami a one-point win, it looked like both teams may be “back.” I was skeptical after a week and FSU gave me even more reason to be skeptical after they had to score with less than a minute left to avoid losing at home to Jacksonville State.

Then, a week later, Miami dominated Georgia Tech 33-17 and Florida State absolutely destroyed 7th ranked BYU, rolling up over 500 yards of offense in a 54-28 win. Things were once again looking pretty in the sunshine state, but it didn’t last.

Florida State had one of their worst performances in years Saturday as they were defeated by the South Florida Bulls 17-7 in Tallahassee. Miami proved that they aren’t quite ready to be back on the national radar and that their fast climb in the rankings was a bit premature.

Both teams had their QBs struggle somewhat after both had looked like All Americans through the first three games. FSU QB Christian Ponder wasn’t too bad, going 25-37 for 269 yards, but he had a costly fumble that set up a USF FG that essentially ended the game. Ponder is completing 66.2% of his passes, had 4 TDs and just one INT so I still think a QB is one thing that the FSU coaching staff has finally found.

Jacory Harris looked nearly invincible in his first two starts, but then he ran into a very good defense that was the first team able to get pressure on the sophomore signal-caller. The Hokies held him to just nine completions on 25 attempts. He had an interception and a fumble. There will still be some growing pains because Harris is very young, but Miami has also found their QB.

Miami’s defense has been shaky, giving up 34, 17, and 31 points, but it is obvious that the team is on the right track.

Florida State, on the other hand, I’m not so sure about. There are a lot of problems with the Seminoles.They need a fresh start and that all starts with letting their Offensive Coordinator and Head Coach in Waiting actually become the Head Coach. Bobby Bowden is a legend. He built a terrible team into a program that had the most impressive 14 year run in the history of college football and as much as I respect Coach Bowden; it’s time for him to let it go. The ‘Noles need a young, charismatic Head Coach like Jimbo Fisher.

Even if Bowden doesn’t leave after the season, it is likely that Defensive Coordinator Mickey Andrews will, which is probably a good thing for FSU. Andrews and the whole defensive staff need an overhaul. FSU hasn’t had a typical dominating defense in quite some time and currently ranked 115th against the pass. They have no pass rush and their secondary has been awful. At times, their defense looks lost. If Fisher soon becomes the Head coach and is able to put together his own staff, the ‘Noles can potentially get back to where they want to be. Fisher has not proven himself to be the right man for the job yet, but he has showed some positive signs. No one will really know what Fisher can do until he has complete control of the team and is able to make his own decisions about his own coaching staff.

And if that’s not the case, there’s always Brian Kelly…

Performance of the Week

Jeremiah Masoli, QB, Oregon After being criticized for his disastrous start to the season, the Junior Quarterback silenced his critics. Masoli threw just four incompletions, going 21-25 for 253 with three touchdowns on Saturday. Oregon destroyed 6th ranked Cal 42-3 and Masoli was largely responsible.

“On offense the sky’s the limit for us,” Masoli said with confidence. “We’re the only ones who can hurt us. These last couple of weeks we’ve been in a funk, but today we moved past that.”

The Heisman Favorite

Last week, I hopped on the Jahvid Best bandwagon but after his 16-carry, 55-yard performance in a 42-3 loss to Oregon, Best has pretty much lost any hope to take home the hardware. It looks like the two frontrunners remain the same – the 2007 Heisman Trophy winner, Florida QB Tim Tebow and Texas QB, Colt McCoy.

Tebow may have had the flu but he looked like his normal self against Kentucky after a less than average performance against Tennessee. He was 5-10 for just 44 yards and a TD but had 16 carries for 123 yards and 2 TDs before he left the game late in the third quarter after suffering a concussion with a 31-7 lead. Tebow continues to put up pedestrian passing numbers but he continues to run well, rarely turns the ball over and keeps leading his team to victory.

The big question about Tebow this week is why he was in the game in the third quarter with a 24-point lead. A case could be made that the Florida Coach Urban Meyer should have had Tebow out because he was sick. Under normal circumstances, there’s no Head Coach in the country that would have their starting QB out with a 24 point lead in only the third quarter. Hits are put of football and with how often Tebow runs the ball and takes hit, this was bound to happen. It seems like he is fine and will be good to go in the highly anticipated showdown with LSU on October 10.

Colt McCoy has been pretty good as well but could be playing much better. McCoy was 28-35 for 286 yards with 3 TDs in a 64-7 win over Utep on Saturday. He is now 103-145 with 1,145 yards and 9 TDs. He also has rushed for a TD. These are Heisman-like numbers on a top team, but his interception numbers are worrying me. He has thrown at least one interception in each game this season and has five total for the season. Although Tebow is just 44-68 for 643 yards and 6 TDs, his rushing (271 yards, 5 TDs) and his ability to make good decisions (just one interception on an incredible catch by Eric Berry) keeps him atop the list for now. McCoy will have plenty of chances to move back ahead of Tebow and I won’t be surprised if he does.

Last week, I mentioned Jacory Harris as a potential dark horse, but he played himself right out of that (see above).

Houston QB Case Keenum may no longer be a dark horse contender because he has now lead his team to wins over two Big 12 teams – Oklahoma State and Texas Tech. Keenum is 93-134 for 1,160 yards with 8 TDs and 2 INTs. He also has three rushing TDs, giving him more total yards then either Tebow or McCoy and more total TDs then both. He has also thrown just two interceptions and his last touchdown Saturday was a four yard run with :49 left and his team trailing by five.

Cincinnati QB Tony Pike is 93-132 for 1223 yards and 11 TDs with just two interceptions. He also has two rushing TDs . He had lead his team to road wins at Big East rival Rutgers and at Oregon State.

Notre Dame QB Jimmy Clausen played his worst game of the season against Purdue Saturday. He threw his first interception in that game and threw for just 171 yards after passing for 300 or more yards in each of his first three games, but Clausen still hit Kyle Rudolph for the game winning TD with :25 leading Notre Dame to their second straight come from behind win. Clausen is 77-117 with1,122 yards with 10 TDs and one interception.

My Top 15

The more I see out of teams, the more teams I will rank, eventually giving an entire Top 25.

1. Florida
2. Alabama
3. Texas
4. LSU
5. Boise State
6. Virginia Tech
7. Cincinnati
8. Houston
9. Oklahoma
10. USC
11. Ohio State
12. TCU
13. Iowa
14. Oregon
15. Oklahoma State

Game of the Week

LSU @ Georgia

The Line: Georgia -3

In week one, the Dogs looked like they were going to have a lot of trouble on offense after 24-10 loss to Oklahoma State in Stillwater but since then the Dogs have lit up the scoreboard. They scored 41 points against a South Carolina defense that held QB Russell Wilson and NC State to just three points Jevon Snead and Ole Miss to just 10 points. They also scored 52 points at Arkansas before struggling to win 20-17 at home against Arizona State. The Dogs held the Sun Devils to just 204 yards and had 334 yards themselves but had they had three turnovers, including two Joe Cox interceptions that kept the Sun Devils in the game. Luckily for the Dogs, they bounced back and got themselves in position to win the game on a last second field goal. If they make those kind of mistakes against the Tigers, they won’t be so lucky.

LSU also struggled last weekend. Mississippi State had first and goal at the 2 with less than two minutes to play and LSU stopped the Bulldogs all four times, leaving Starkville with a 30-26 victory. LSU didn’t look good at all. The Bulldogs had over 100 more total yards than the Tigers, but committed four turnovers while LSU did not turn the ball over. The Tigers managed just 30 yards rushing – that’s not going to cut it.

If this game becomes another shootout, I think it will favor the Dogs considering they have already beat two pretty good teams in that style of a game. However, I think LSU got a wake-up call last week and will not allow that to happen.

I like LSU in this game. I don’t think that they will be looking ahead to the Florida game and I think their defense is going to force Joe Cox and the Georgia offense into mistakes because of LSU’s ability to shut down the Georgia running game. LSU’s talented WRs should be able to take advantage of these mistakes. Plus, the Tigers have already gone into one hostile environment (Washington) and come out with a victory.

Upset Alert

I was going to take Michigan State over Michigan but then I saw that the Spartans are actually a two-point favorite.

I’m going to put Georgia Tech on upset alert. The Jackets must travel to Starkville to take on Mississippi State. I’m not going to pick the Bulldogs to win the game but their near upset of LSU should give them some confidence against a Tech team that may be looking ahead to their next two games – a game in Tallahassee with the Seminoles and matchup at home against Virginia Tech in two weeks that could put Georgia Tech right back in the mix for an ACC title.

Other Potential Upsets:

UCLA @ Stanford – 5.5

Stanford is coming off a huge win over Washington, but the Bruins have played well. They are 3-0 and have two non-conference BCS wins (@Tennessee, Kansas State).

NC State @ Wake Forest – 2.5 I expect this one to happen. NC State has the more talented team.

USC – 5 @ Cal

Cal is coming off a terrible performance against Oregon by any team going on the road with a freshman Quarterback and a lot of inexperience has the potential to struggle.

(Andrew Melnick is Howard the Dunk’s lead blogger. Subscribe to his RSS feed and add him on Twitter to follow him daily.)

One of the biggest decisions has finally been made. After leading Florida to its second national championship in three seasons Tim Tebow will return for its senior season. Others left to decide include Florida’s Percy Harvin and Brandon Spikes and Oklahoma’s Sam Bradford.

Check out the full list:

Leaving:
North Carolina WR Hakeem Nicks
Alabama OT Andre Smith
Iowa RB Shonn Greene
Rutgers WR Kenny Britt
LSU DT Ricky Jean-Francois
Kansas State QB Josh Freeman
Illinois CB Vontae Davis
Georgia RB Knowshon Moreno
Georgia QB Matthew Stafford
Florida State DE Everett Brown
Maryland WR Derrius Heyward Bey
Wisconsin RB P. J. Hill
Ohio State RB Chris Wells
Texas Tech WR Michael Crabtree
Missouri WR Jeremy Maclin
BYU WR Austin Collie
Alabama RB Glen Coffee

Returning:
South Carolina LB Eric Norwood
Texas QB Colt McCoy
Alabama DT Terrence Cody
Virginia Tech DB Cam Chancellor
Florida QB Tim Tebow

Undecided (Some Notables):
Florida WR Percy Harvin
Florida LB Brandon Spikes
Penn State DE Aaron Maybin
USC QB Mark Sanchez
Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford
Oklahoma TE Jermaine Gresham
Pittsburgh RB LeSean McCoy
USC S Taylor Mays (leaning towards leaving)

Three Florida players and an Oklahoma quarterback will make a difference. Tim Tebow, Brandon Spikes, and Percy Harvin will all file paperwork to the NFL Draft advisory board to find out where they are currently projected to go if they entered the draft.

I’m sure Heisman Trophy winner Sam Bradford is going to do the same thing, although I haven’t heard any official word.

Here’s a quick rundown on what the four guys listed above will probably do:

Tim Tebow: Stay
As you guys know I’m a big Florida fan, and although I’m unbiased as possible I can’t help but root that the three Florida guys stick around another year. Tebow is the most likely to stay since his NFL stock won’t be as high as Brandon Spikes and Percy Harvin. Plus Tebow loves college football. If Tebow wins his second national championship then he might decide to leave.

Brandon Spikes: Go
If he sticks around he could be a top 10 pick next season because he would be the top linebacker on the board. I still think Spikes will go after having a tremendous junior season on the field.

Percy Harvin: Go
Although another year would possibly get both Michael Crabtree and Derrius Heyward Bey out of the way it isn’t likely that Harvin will return. If Tebow comes back then Harvin will think about it, but I’m not sure what he would do in that situation. He will be a top 25 pick and should probably take the money.

Sam Bradford: Go
NFL scouts love the guy but I still think he’d be the #2 QB off the board (behind Stafford). Even with that he is never going to have a better season than the one he just had.  Bradford will more than likely leave if he wins the national title.

So what will happen? Here’s my guess.

Using their speed Florida’s offense will be able to score on most of their possessions. Alabama will have to play defense on offense by keeping Florida’s offense off the field.

The Crimson Tide’s defense is stout as well, and I’m sure they will be a big test for the Gators offense.

Special teams will also be important. The Gators block kicks consistently every week, but the real battle is on kick returns. Will Javier Arenas or Brandon James win out and make a big play?

I expect Florida to win the game 31-17. Expect Jeffery Demps and Chris Rainey to combine for about 150 yards rushing. Florida will somewhat shut down Alabama’s running game and force John Parker Wilson to throw.

Another problem for Tebow is whether or not he can run a pro style offense. Even in high school Tebow ran the spread offense, which does not work in the NFL.

So can Tebow succeed at the next level? He’s a big guy that can make plays with his feet when he needs to do and when he’s on he’s as accurate as any quarterback in college football. Yet the debate rages on.

I’ve seen mock drafts have him going in the top ten to mock drafts that don’t have him in the first round at all. Some people think Tebow shouldn’t be drafted at all. That’s why I want the opinion of my readers.

So vote below and then comment and tell everyone why you think Tebow is or isn’t a NFL quarterback.

The Heisman Trophy winner does not make mistakes, that’s the one quality that he does have. He hasn’t thrown an interception all season and carries a nice streak of passes without a turnover into this weekend’s game at Arkansas.

So what is the downside for Tebow? There are quite a few actually.

His passing numbers are way down this year, but that is mainly because head coach Urban Meyer continues to try to develop a running game (ask Ole Miss if that worked).

Tebow worked on staying flat footed and patient in the pocket all offseason (like Tom Brady) but hasn’t really got to show off whether he’s gotten better or not on precision passes. For example, with a minute left to play in Saturday’s upset loss to Ole Miss he missed a wide open Louis Murphy for what would have been the game winning touchdown.

He doesn’t run a pro style offense and generally spread quarterbacks do not fare well in the NFL. The best example of this is Alex Smith, who has already tried his luck after playing for Meyer in college. Ask J. T. O’ Sullivan how that worked out for Smith.

Now Tebow is the talk of the college football world, but probably not the talk of NFL scouts. Most mock drafts that assume he will leave early have him going in round one, including my last attempt to create one this early in the season.

In my next one don’t be surprised if you don’t see Tebow’s name in round one at all.

1. Tim Tebow (QB, Florida): Well he did win the Heisman and that means he’s the best player in college football. He could win it again this year although I don’t think he will because the Gators have many other options. Also just to note, both lists began with a quarterback.

2. Michael Crabtree (WR, Texas Tech): I don’t care what offense he plays in because this guy would be dominant no matter where he played. He’s a super athlete and could score 25 TDs this year.

3. James Laurinatius (LB, Ohio State): The Ohio State linebacker is one of the best players in the country. He has a great nose for the football and is easily a top 20 college player.

4. Michael Oher (OT, Ole Miss): Oher is the one player that everyone agrees will be a top 10 pick in next year’s NFL Draft. He stars on a Mississippi team that continues to struggle in the SEC.

5. Ray Maualuga (LB, USC): He really shined last season in the Rose Bowl against Illinois and is not an unquestioned top player at the college level. He likes making hard tackles and big plays at big moments.

6. Michael Johnson (DE, Georgia Tech): He really hasn’t had a chance to prove how great he can be yet because of injuries but there’s no doubt that he’s the best defensive lineman in college football. Expect him to wreak havok all year long.

7. Knowshon Moreno (RB, Georgia): Moreno is a great running back but I have to believe defenses are going to figure him out this season. He will be fantastic no matter what defenses throw at him though.

8. Chris Wells (RB, Ohio State): Wells leads the Buckeyes offense and has developed into one of the better running backs in college. He’s already played in two national championship games.

9. Jeremy Maclin (WR, Missouri): Maclin can change a game in many ways. He’s very quick and can return kicks and punts for touchdowns at any moment.

10. Andre Smith (OT, Alabama): Smith is a great college football player and has really been the main man on the Crimson Tide’s offensive line since the day they signed him.

11. Noel Devine (RB, West Virgnia): I’m sure I will get a lot of complaints about this one but believe me Noel Devine is going to be amazing for the Mountaineers. Just wait.

12. Malcolm Jenkins (CB, Ohio State): Jenkins is the best cornerback in college football in my estimation and yes for those counting that is now three Ohio State players in the top 12. I better not any hear any complaints from Buckeye fans.

13. Vontae Davis (CB, Illinois): Back to back cornerbacks on the list as Davis gets my #13 spot. I love this kid, he has a knack for making the big play with Illinois needs it most.

14. Myron Rolle (S, Florida State): Rolle is very talented, and amazingly he’s the first ACC player on this list. Now I know where I’m going to get my complaints from…..

15. Derius Heyward Bey (WR, Maryland): Heyward Bey is an amazing talent. He has breakaway speed and is the #1 wide receiver prospect for the 2009 NFL Draft.

16. Matthew Stafford (QB, Georgia): I believe that Stafford is the only franchise quaterback available in the 2009 NFL Draft (if he decides to leave UGA) but he’s #16 here because he’s been overshadowed by Tebow and Moreno so far.

17. Percy Harvin (WR, Florida): Harvin has amazing speed and is a nightmare when he’s paired on an offense with Tebow and Chris Rainey. He might finish in the top 5 for the Heisman this year.

18. Fili Moala (DT, USC): I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Moala ends up going in the top five in the 2009 NFL Draft, and he’s a great hole filler for the Trojans on the defensive line.

19. George Selvie (DE, South Florida): I know a few guys that are higher on Selvie than I am. He’s very talented but I think I have him ranked about right.

20. Tyson Jackson (DE, LSU): Back to back defensive ends to finish off the list as I give some love to the defending national champions. LSU’s defensive line might just be the best in the nation AGAIN this year.

On my big board of the best players in the draft I have used every player that is eligible to enter the draft and five of my top 10 can return to school next fall.

The decisions of guys like Michael Crabtree, Matthew Stafford, Percy Harvin, Tim Tebow, Knowshon Moreno and Andre Smith will be important for the 2009 draft. If they return to school then Florida will have another national title run in them, as will Georgia, and the Crimson Tide and Red Raiders will keep their most talented player for another season.

If these guys decide to enter the draft then NFL teams will have some extremely talented guys to choose from. Here’s the VERY early lowdown on what I think these guys will decide:

Michael Crabtree: NFL–I really think he is the most talented receiver to come out in years. He’s electric and extremely fast. He has a huge body and he reminds me of Terrell Owens. I think once NFL teams realize his true potential that he will decide to leave. Please note he was a redshirt freshman so he is eligible to leave as a sophomore.

Percy Harvin: College–Once Tebow (read below for more) decides to return I don’t think Harvin will leave. He’s very very quick but probably needs to work on proving he has the size to be an elite NFL receiver and not just a playmaker on kick returns and quick passes.

Tim Tebow: College–If this guy leaves then I don’t see anybody returning. He loves the University of Florida way too much to leave. He might be going for his third Heisman Trophy by then as well, and maybe even his third national title in four years.

Knowshon Moreno: College–The Georgia running back showed his extreme talent at the end of last season, and he was also redshirted as a freshman. I don’t think he plays as well as he did last year, although he will be great, and will stay until his Junior season.

Andre Smith: NFL–The Alabama offensive tackle has been amazing since he signed with the Crimson Tide. I think he’s got to go, he’s been fantastic and will be great on a NFL offensive line. If he returns a lot of Crimson Tide fans will be very happy next season.

Matthew Stafford: NFL–Stafford has a very strong arm and looks like he can be a franchise type quarterback in the NFL. I have watched many videos on him and although he has to work on his decision making, I believe he will be just fine if he decides to leave.

Others whose decisions will affect the 2009 NFL Draft are:
Jeremy Maclin, Sam Bradford, Brandon Spikes, Myron Rolle, Gregg Middleton

QB | RB | WR | TE | T | G/C | DT | DE | LB | CB | S | K | P

1. Matthew Stafford (Georgia)* Round Projection: Early 1st He appears to be the top QB prospect in this draft. He has a strong arm and usually makes good decisions with the football. Stafford is the most NFL ready quarterback I’ve seen all year.

	2. Sam Bradford (Oklahoma)* Round Projection: 1st Some experts even like Bradford over Stafford when they rank their quarterbacks. Bradford isn’t as NFL ready at Stafford but he will go early in the first round if he decides to leave Norman.
	3. Tim Tebow (Florida)* Round Projection: 2nd-3rd Tebow may not even be a quarterback at the next level, depending on who takes him. If the Florida QB leaves he probably won’t go in round one because NFL teams are uncertain of his readiness.
	4. Mark Sanchez (USC)* Round Projection: 2nd-3rd Although I don’t expect Sanchez to leave school I do think he could be a surprise in the NFL. He has a strong arm, but needs to work on his decision making.
	5. Graham Harrell (Texas Tech) Round Projection: 3rd-4th Is he a system quarterback? In the NFL we will find out. He has a strong arm and can make a lot of the throws that a NFL quarterback needs in his arsenal.