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Scout Notebook 9/8/10 – Completion % vs Accuracy

joshd — Wed, 08 Sep 2010 12:31:18 +0000

Welcome to the first edition of the Scout Notebook! At NFLMocks, we wanted to find a way to discuss in more depth how we analyze prospects. Often times people fall in love with the stat sheet (I blame fantasy football, but its too much fun to not play!) or use it as a crutch to support a player. Stats, however, clearly aren’t the only thing it takes to translate to the NFL. Just check the top ten at of any of the individual NCAA records and see how many NFL stars are there, especially the quarterback records. Quarterback is one of the toughest positions to scout and the process for evaluating them is full of conjecture and misinformed opinions because there is so much bias towards stats. Stats can be used in evaluation, but they still have to be applied correctly. Michael Rosenberg of SI.com recently wrote an article where he thrice tried to correlate stats with projected NFL success:

“Accuracy” Locker completed 58 percent of his passes last year — pretty good, but not special. Yardage? He threw for 2800 last year, 33rd in the FBS. Leadership? Locker has yet to post a winning record.”

All three statements use stats incorrectly to identify qualities in a quarterback. He pits accuracy against completion percentage, pure statistical data to future on field performance, and holds intangible qualities directly effect win/loss records. The worst offense would be linking leadership, an intangible quality, to wins on the field. Leadership can only take talent so far and talent can win without it on the field, but we can save that for another time. Today we are going to start at the beginning of this misguided statement and talk about how Accuracy and Completion Percentage are different.

How many times have you seen the quarterback on your team hit a wide receiver in the numbers only for him to bobble it away? A second in the break of their concentration and they miss an easy catch. How many times have you seen your team’s quarterback over or under throw a target, much to your chagrin? Both actions hurt the quarterbacks completion percentage, but only one is the fault of the quarterback. The completion percentage has outside factors weighing in how its formed including the offensive scheme, the quarterback, the receiver, the defense, and the level of talent each of those factors possess. Accuracy, on the other hand, is all about ball placement. Ball placement though, doesn’t appear on any stat sheet and can only be determined by watching a lot game tape on a quarterback in order to judge consistency. This would be a good point to have a visual demonstration that I could have made used Adobe Photoshop or perhaps with some video equipment that would network my DVR and computer to allow me to edit the games I record (Are you reading this Santa?), but for now we will have to use our imaginations for this next example.

To help illustrate what we are talking about, we are going to use a non-football example. Above is an archery target. Sharpshooters to gun range enthusiasts will tell you that the most accurate shots on the target will be centered on the middle or yellow area of the target and get less accurate as they get away from the center. Imagine if you will, two sharpshooters showing off their targets. Each took ten shots, and each hit the target ten times. Shooter A has 5 shots in the blue zone, 3 in the black, and 2 in the red. Shooter B has 5 shots in the red, 3 in the blue and 2 in the yellow. Both shooters had a 100% completion percentage since all ten shots landed on the target, but Shooter B was much more consistent in hitting toward the center of the target and thus more accurate.

Now going back to football, we can replace the color coded target with the receiver’s jersey. The numbers are now the yellow center and passes are considered less accurate as they move away from the numbers into the extremities of the receiver. This is, of course, a very simplistic view because unlike the stationary archery targets, the receivers are nine times out of ten moving and the ball placement must take the coverage into consideration. For example, lets look at the most exciting, but toughest to complete pass: The Long Ball. Here are three examples that I could find on YouTube of accurate down field passes:

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Scout Notebook 9/8/10 – Completion % vs Accuracy - NFL Mocks - NFL Mocks - Covering the 2012 NFL draft, Mock Draft Database, Scouting Reports, and Fantasy Football

Rookie Preseason 2 Week Review

jdove — Mon, 16 Aug 2010 15:59:26 +0000

NFL Mocks is focuses on everything related to the NFL Draft and that means we keep a close eye on the NFL Rookies. Every Monday during Preseason we will be giving you a review of the top performers from the weekend games.

This weekend marked the first full slate of preseason games and we were able to get first, much anticipated, look at the rookies. While a lot of rookies have positive games I am going to outline the players that caught my eye.

Ryan Matthews- RB- San Diego:

Well most of us anticipated Matthews would get a lot of carries this year and the first preseason game only solidified those thoughts. Matthews looked good in his first action gaining 50 yards on 9 carries with a nice 18 yard gain mixed in. He also caught 2 passes for 11 yards, showing that he is also a receiving threat out of the backfield. Overall this was a nice game for Matthews and we could expect only further development.

Tim Tebow- QB- Denver:

Well of course Tebow caught my eye the media coverage made that almost a given. However, he had a pretty nice opening game. I still think he needs a lot of work on his throwing motion, which looked unchanged from his college days but he was productive. The throw I was most impressed with was dropped which likely would have ended up as a long touchdown pass. The other thing to note is that Brady Quinn looked terrible which could mean a promotion for Tebow. I think labeling Quinn’s performance as terrible is an understatement

Geno Atkins- DT- Cincinnati:

Atkins is putting together a very impressive preseason. Last week he had 5 tackles, 1 sack, and 3 tackles for loss and then this week he put up 4 tackles, 1.5 sacks, and 1 tackle for loss. Don’t think the coaches aren’t noticing his development; Coach Lewis said that he is well ahead of where they expected him to be at this point in the season. If he keeps this up he could be making an appearance on our Rookie Watch Rankings.

Anthony Dixon- RB- San Francisco:

Glenn Coffee’s retirement has really put Dixon on the map. Dixon is now the front runner to be the back up to injury plagued Frank Gore. Dixon had an impressive debut by rushing for 100 yards on 21 carries and getting a goal line touchdown. The 49ers love the power running game and Dixon fits the mold, if Gore gets injured we could see more from this potential breakout star.

Pat Angerer- LB- Indianapolis:

Everyone knows the Colts have an electric offense but they are quietly adding nice pieces on the defensive side of the ball. Angerer the 2^nd round pick out of Iowa had a excellent debut compiling 8 tackles, 2 sacks, and 1 tackle for loss.

Check out the Rest of the list including Colt McCoy and Jimmy Clausen after the Jump

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Rookie Preseason 2 Week Review - NFL Mocks - NFL Mocks - Covering the 2012 NFL draft, Mock Draft Database, Scouting Reports, and Fantasy Football

NFL Team Needs: AFC West

jdove — Wed, 14 Jul 2010 12:00:46 +0000

The newest segment for NFLMocks is the NFL Team Needs focus. We are going to bring you division by division team needs and these needs will be updated throughout the offseason and during the actual season. And after the season is said and done … [visit site to read more]

NFL Team Needs: AFC West - NFL Mocks - NFL Mocks - Covering the 2012 NFL draft, Mock Draft Database, Scouting Reports, and Fantasy Football

Reviewing the 2006 NFL Draft: AFC West

joshd — Tue, 22 Jun 2010 12:00:37 +0000

It’s been 4 years since the 2006 NFL Draft and those selected have had time to make an impact on their respective teams. In this new series of articles the writers at NFLMocks will be breaking down each team division by division and … [visit site to read more]

Reviewing the 2006 NFL Draft: AFC West - NFL Mocks - NFL Mocks - Covering the 2012 NFL draft, Mock Draft Database, Scouting Reports, and Fantasy Football

2009 NFL Draft Team Needs: Denver Broncos

nflmocks — Sat, 25 Apr 2009 02:32:59 +0000

Featured Blogger: Kim … [visit site to read more]

2009 NFL Draft Team Needs: Denver Broncos - NFL Mocks - NFL Mocks - Covering the 2012 NFL draft, Mock Draft Database, Scouting Reports, and Fantasy Football