The second the clock hit 00:00 in Alabama’s 24-15 victory over SEC West divison-rival LSU, the showdown was set.

The rematch of last season’s SEC Championship game that college football fans have been waiting for since the season began will be played. The BCS’ top-ranked team, Florida, will take on the second-ranked team, Alabama on December 5.

Of course, each team has to win out, but that seems like a formality. Florida travels to South Carolina before hosting Florida International and rival Florida State to end the season.

Alabama plays on the road, at Mississippi State, but then host Chattanooga and Auburn.

Mississippi State and South Carolina could present some match-up problems for the Tide and the Gators, but it’s hard to see either team losing. The Gators are 16-point favorites, while the Tide have opened up as 13-point favorites.

After each team faces a cupcake, both teams have to battle their in-state rivals, Auburn and Florida State, but neither rival looks to pose much of a threat.

The Tigers came out of the gate hot, starting the season 5-0 with wins over West Virginia and Tennessee. Since that time, the Tigers are just 2-3 with their wins coming at home over Mississippi and Furman. They were blown out at Arkansas and LSU and lost a home contest against Kentucky. Auburn is on a bye the week before they play Alabama, a luxury that the Tide don’t have, but as mentioned above, the Tide face Chattanooga the week before, so it’s likely they will be able to spend some extra time preparing for the Tigers. Alabama defeated Auburn 36-0 last season.

The Gators shouldn’t have a problem in their rivalry game either. Florida State is 4-5 and has arguably the second worst defense of any BCS school in the entire nation (Washington State). Even with Florida’s struggles on offense, no team has any trouble scoring in bunches against the Seminole defense. Their offense was rolling until Quarterback Christian Ponder separated his shoulder in the Seminoles’ loss at Clemson Saturday. Florida State has to turn to Redshirt Freshman E.J. Manuel and although Manuel is very talented, he has thrown just 4 passes in his career. The Gators have defeated their rivals five consecutive times, including a 45-13 victory over the ‘Noles last season.

The two played in the SEC Championship last season when the 2nd ranked Gators beat the top-ranked Tide in a very tight game, 31-20. The two teams were fairly evenly matched last year and that seems to be the case again this season.

Alabama and Florida have arguably the two best defenses in the country. Florida ranks second in total defense, while Alabama is fourth (Texas leads the nation while TCU is third). The Gators give up 4 yards per play while the Tide give up slightly less at 3.9 yards per play (in comparison Texas gives up 3.5 yards per play but has faced lesser competition).

Both teams have had some major struggles on offense. Neither offense has been all that effective and both Quarterbacks have struggled, especially in the red zone. Tim Tebow has just 11 TDs and 1,531 yards through the air and 578 yards on the ground (3.7 ypc) with 9 more TDs. Greg McElroy is completing just over 59% of his passes and has only 1,721 yards.

The good news for both squads is that both QBs have looked much better in recent games (McElroy vs. LSU and Tebow vs. Georgia).

The Gators average 6.58 yards per play on offense while the Tide average 6.06, but do be fair the Gators have an easier schedule than the Tide. Alabama has seen several better defensive clubs than the Gators have.

As we get closer to December, we will have much more coverage of what will most likely be an epic battle for not only the SEC Championship, but a berth in the National Championship game.

So Much for the Ducks

I raved about Oregon after their blowout win over Southern Cal last week here.

So much for that.

Stanford got out to an early 24-7 lead, was up 31-14 at the half and held on for a 51-42 victory over Oregon.

Last week, Oregon’s defense looked like world-beaters, but after USC managed to put just 14 points on Arizona State and the Ducks’ defense was torched by the Cardinal, they look anything but.

Oregon gave up 51 points and 505 total yards on the ground to a very balanced Stanford attack. Stanford had 251 yards passing and 254 yards rushing.

You can’t blame Oregon’s offense. They came to play. They put up 570 yards and 42 points to make a game of it. Jeremiah Masoli had 334 yards and 3 TDs while rushing for 55 yards and a score. LaMichael James had 125 yards and a TD on the ground.

Stanford Head Coach Jim Harbaugh thinks that his Quarterback Andrew Luck is the best Quartberack in the country. I’m not sure about that but, Luck was very good Saturday, completing 12-of-20 passes for 251 yards and 2 TDs. The real story of the game was Stanford Running Back Toby Gerhart.

Gerhart rushed for a school-record 223 yards on 38 carries and had three scores. He now has 1,217 yards on 233 carries (5.2 ypc) and 16 TDs on the season.

Speaking of Oregon, Oregon and the Pac-10 have re-instated Running Back LaGarette Blount.

Everyone remembers Blount for his punch of Boise State defensive end Byron Hout after a poor performance in which he rushed for -5 yards on 8 carries, but in 2008, Blount was a very good back. In fact, Blount rushed for 1,002 yards on just 137 carries in 2008.

LaMichael James has been great for the Ducks, rushing for 1,043 yards this season, but he is rather small (he’s listed at 5’9, 180 lbs.). Blount is a big back at 6’2, 240. He will give the Ducks a power back so they can have a “thunder and lightning” combo.

I thought Blount’s suspension may have been too severe in the first place. I absolutely agree that there is no place for something like that in college football, but a season-long suspension seemed like too much. After all, he was antagonized by Hout and Hout received no public punishment.

Ponder Out For the Season

You have to feel for Florida State Quarterback Christian Ponder. He was having an excellent season for the struggling Seminoles, but suffered broken ribs during the first half of FSU’s win over North Carolina State. He tried to play with those broken ribs against Clemson but was off all game, throwing a career-high 4 interceptions. Ponder separated his shoulder attempting a tackle after his final pick and will now miss the rest of the season. Highly-touted Redshirt Freshman E.J. Manuel will step in and start the Seminoles’ final three games (@ Wake Forest, Maryland, @ Florida). Ponder finished the season completing 68.6% of his passes for 2,717 yards with 14 TDs and 7 interceptions. He also rushed for 2 TDs.

How can Charlie Weis survive this season?

After another home loss to Navy, the Irish dropped to 6-3 on the season. With games still to come at Pittsburgh, home against Connecticut and at Stanford, Notre Dame will more than likely lose another game and have a change to lose all three. Pittsburgh is a 7-point favorite and I’d expect Notre Dame to be a road underdog against Stanford as well.

After one year at Notre Dame, Weis went 9-3 and won the Eddie Robinson Coach of the Year award. The Irish were defeated by Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl 34-20. In the middle of that second season, Weis was given a huge, 10-year contract extension just five games into his head coaching career. The n his next year, he went 10-3 and the Irish were blown out 41-14 by LSU in the Sugar Bowl.  In 2007, the Irish won just 3 games and followed that up with a 7-6 campaign in 2008.

That makes Weis just 35-24 at Notre Dame and the Irish have just one bowl win (over Hawaii).

In comparison, Ty Willingham was 21-15 at Notre Dame and Bob Davie had a nearly identical record of 35-25.

If the Irish win out, with their schedule, I still find it hard to believe that Weis would keep his job. After all, he has lost two games to Navy after the Irish had previously won 43 games in a row against the Midshipmen.

Iowa’s luck runs out

I don’t think anyone is surprised that Iowa’s run came to end. They had been living on the edge every week, barely eeking out wins over Northern Iowa, Arkansas State, Michigan and Michigan State. They had to block two field goals to defeat Northern Iowa, had to stop a two-point conversion try and a last-effort drive by Michigan and had to score on the game’s final play to beat Michigan State. After the Hawkeye erased a 10-point fourth quarter deficit against Indiana for a 42-24 win, many were beginning to think that Iowa was a team of destiny and with just three games left, maybe they could complete a perfect season.

Once Quarterback Ricky Stanzi went down, hope seemingly went out the window. Iowa had a 10-0 lead before Stanzi was sacked, injured, and fumbled. The fumble was recovered by Marshall Thomas in the end zone for a Northwestern touchdown to cut the lead to 10-7. The Wildcats would score twice more and Iowa couldn’t muster much of anything on offense.

Iowa had a good run, but you can only live on the edge for so long.

Performance of the Week:

Toby Gerhart, RB, Stanford
Gerharts rushed for 233 yards on 38 carries and had 2 TDs as Stanford upset Oregon.

The Heisman Race

1. Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama
Last week: 22 carries, 144 yards, 5 receptions, 30 yard
Season: 175 carries, 1,148 yards, 8 TDs, 24 receptions, 216 yards, 3 TDs
2. Colt McCoy, QB, Texas
Last week: 33-of-42, 470 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT
Season: 231-of-317 (72.9%), 2,447 yards, 17 TDs, 9 INTs, 1 TD rushing
3. Case Keenum, QB, Houston
Last week: 40-of-60, 522 yards, 3 TDs
Season: 325-of-458 (71%), 3,815 yards, 28 TD, 5 INT, 3 TDs rushing
4. Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame
Last week: 37-of-51, 452 yards, 2 TDS, 1 INT
Season: 209-of-308 (68%), 2,770 yards, 20 TDs, 3 INT, 1 TD rushing
5. Tim Tebow, QB, Florida
Last week: 15-of-20, 208 yards, 1 TD, 16 carries, 27 yards, 1 TD
Season: 114-of-173 (66%), 1,531 yards, 11 TDs, 4 INT, 155 attempts, 578 yards (3.7 ypc), 9 TD

My Top 25

1. Alabama
2. Florida
3. Texas
4. Cincinnati
5. TCU
6. Boise State
7. Georgia Tech
8. LSU
9. Pittsburgh
10. Utah
11. Iowa
12. Ohio State
13. Houston
14. Oregon
15. USC
16. Penn State
17. Miami
18. Oklahoma State
19. Arizona
20. Wisconsin
21. Virginia Tech
22. South Florida
23. Clemson
24. Stanford
25. West Virginia

Game of the Week
#11 Iowa @ #12 Ohio State
3:30 PM, ABC
The Line: OSU – 17

Iowa Quarterback Ricky Stanzi doesn’t have very good numbers at all (2186 yards, 56%, 15 TDs, 14 INTs) but he had a knack for making a big play down the stretch. James Vandenberg was awful replacing Stanzi went down with an ankle injury in Iowa’s 17-10 loss to Northwestern. Vandenberg was 9-of-27 for 82 yards and an interception. He also missed a wide open Iowa receiver late in the fourth quarter on a play that could have tied the game.

Iowa has been very ineffective running the ball this season. They have just 1,192 yards in 10 games. That’s just 119 yards per game and only 3.4 yards per carry. Against a top-flight defense like the Buckeyes, I don’t see how Iowa is going to be able to move the ball without Stanzi. Actually, I don’t see how they would be able to score against this well-coached Buckeye defense even if they had Stanzi.

Penn State entered last week’s game averaging just under 31 points per game. They scored 7 against the Buckeyes and their one touchdown came on a controversial 4th-and-one where it looked Daryll Clark’s sneak may have been stopped short. The Lions finished with just 201 total yards

Ohio State, on the other hand, rushed for 190 yards per game and averages 4.7 yards per rush even with a mostly ineffective passing game. Terrelle Pryor was still relatively ineffective last week against Penn State, but he made big plays when he had to (2 TD passes) and managed the game well, avoiding a turnover. The Buckeyes put 228 rushing yards on a very stingy Penn State defense. That’s almost as many total yards as Penn State gave up per game coming in (254).

I’m not sure the Buckeyes will score enough to cover, but I think their defense is going to dominate and the game will never really be in doubt.

What Else to Keep an Eye On

#13 Houston @ Central Florida +5.5
Noon

The Knights hung with Texas for 2.5 quarters before losing 35-3. Case Keenum is coming off back-to-back 500 yard games and Colt McCoy shredded the Knights for 470 yards last week. The Knights do have some talent on their roster, especially on the defensive line. If UCF has Quarterback Brett Hodges and Running Back Brynn Harvey back from apparent injuries, they may be able to give the Cougars a game.

#2 Florida @ South Carolina +16
CBS, 3:30

I thought the Gamecocks’ stingy defense might give them a chance in this game, but they have given up 31 to Tennessee and 33 to Arkansas in the last two weeks. The home crowd may keep South Carolina in the game early, but they just don’t have enough on offense to beat the Gators.

(Andrew Melnick is Howard the Dunk’s lead blogger and a contributor at NFL Mocks Subscribe to his RSS feed and add him on Twitter to follow him daily.)

Three of the top six went down this weekend with each losing to an unranked team. 4th ranked Ole Miss was defeated by South Carolina, 5th ranked Penn State was beaten by Iowa for the seventh time in six games and 6th ranked California was destroyed by Oregon 42-3.

While many were very surprised by these outcomes, I don’t think any of these upsets should have shocked anyone. Ole Miss was overhyped from the get-go. They had a pretty good team last season, but still lost four games, but they did win two huge games in 2008. They were the only team to defeat Florida (and did it in Gainesville) and also defeated a former #1 – Texas Tech, in the Cotton Bowl. After the season, Ole Miss lost their two best players in the first round of the NFL Draft – DT Peria Jerry (24th overall to Atlanta) and OT Michael Oher (23rd overall to Baltimore). You can’t lose your best player on both your offensive and defense line and expect there not to be a drop-off. Add Greg Hardy, Ole Miss’ star defensive end, who has been banged up since Ole Miss’ week one win over Memphis and you’ve got yourself some trouble.

In fact, I, along with many others, picked South Carolina to win the game. The Gamecocks defeated a pretty good NC State team in Raleigh and suffered their only loss in the closing seconds against Georgia. The Gamecocks had a chance to win the game but a 4th down pass inside the Georgia 10-yard line fell incomplete.

Penn State’s loss is a little more surprising to me, but it probably should not have been. Kirk Ferentz and the Hawkeyes have now beaten Penn State seven of the last eight times they have played them. Penn State has posted very good records since 2005, but they don’t have a whole lot of impressive victories. They were blown out in the Rose Bowl by USC last season after finishing the regular season 11-1 and winning the Big 10 Championship. I’m not sure that Penn State has the talent to be an actual National Championship contender. I don’t think they have the athletes at all positions to run with teams like Florida, Texas and Southern Cal and they have proven that over the last few seasons. Although they are having much more success than Florida State, I think Penn State is in a similar situation – both teams are being held back from reaching the truly elite level by their Hall-Of-Fame Head Coaches – the reason those teams became elite programs in the first place.

California’s blowout loss to Oregon came out of nowhere. Just last week, I said that I would cast my Heisman vote for Jahvid Best and although I did say that I didn’t trust California as a team outside of Best, there’s no way I expected Oregon, with a struggling Quarterback, to blow to Bears out of the water. Coming into the contest against Cal, Oregon QB Jeremiah Masoli was just 29-64 with 379 yards, 0 TDs and 2 INTs, including a 4-16 performance in a win over Utah a week ago. Against Cal, Masoli was 21-25 for 253 yards with 3 TDs and 0 INTs.

I’m not totally surprised that the Ducks won, especially since the game was played in Autzen Stadium, but the score is just unbelievable. Jahvid Best had just 55 yards on 16 carries, essentially taking him out of the Heisman Race.

So What Does This Say About Boise State?

Oregon has defeated Purdue and two former unbeaten, ranked teams- Utah and California. The Ducks have bounced back from the season-opening loss and the loss of their star Running Back. They have looked very good lately and worked their way back into the top 25, so what does all of this say about Boise State?

The Broncos dominated the Ducks in a week one win. They defeated Oregon 19-8 and held the Ducks to just 152 yards compared to the 524 yards that Oregon gained on California.

Last week, Boise State played an overmatched Bowling Green team and absolutely dominated, winning 49-14. Games like this tell us nothing, which is why you have to admire teams like BYU and TCU who are in a situation that is very similar to Boise State’s, but schedule much tougher competition. BYU has already played Oklahoma and Florida State, while TCU just went into South Carolina and came out with a win over Clemson.

There really isn’t anything standing in between Boise and an undefeated season and there hasn’t been since their week one win. Because of the schedule the Broncos play, we will never really know how good they are until the season ends, which is unfortunate for college football fans across the country. It’s also unfortunate for the Broncos because it gives them to chance to make a BCS National Championship game.

Florida State and Miami Back? Guess Not.

After a classic week one matchup between the ‘Canes and the ‘Noles, which was decided on a last second dropped pass by FSU giving Miami a one-point win, it looked like both teams may be “back.” I was skeptical after a week and FSU gave me even more reason to be skeptical after they had to score with less than a minute left to avoid losing at home to Jacksonville State.

Then, a week later, Miami dominated Georgia Tech 33-17 and Florida State absolutely destroyed 7th ranked BYU, rolling up over 500 yards of offense in a 54-28 win. Things were once again looking pretty in the sunshine state, but it didn’t last.

Florida State had one of their worst performances in years Saturday as they were defeated by the South Florida Bulls 17-7 in Tallahassee. Miami proved that they aren’t quite ready to be back on the national radar and that their fast climb in the rankings was a bit premature.

Both teams had their QBs struggle somewhat after both had looked like All Americans through the first three games. FSU QB Christian Ponder wasn’t too bad, going 25-37 for 269 yards, but he had a costly fumble that set up a USF FG that essentially ended the game. Ponder is completing 66.2% of his passes, had 4 TDs and just one INT so I still think a QB is one thing that the FSU coaching staff has finally found.

Jacory Harris looked nearly invincible in his first two starts, but then he ran into a very good defense that was the first team able to get pressure on the sophomore signal-caller. The Hokies held him to just nine completions on 25 attempts. He had an interception and a fumble. There will still be some growing pains because Harris is very young, but Miami has also found their QB.

Miami’s defense has been shaky, giving up 34, 17, and 31 points, but it is obvious that the team is on the right track.

Florida State, on the other hand, I’m not so sure about. There are a lot of problems with the Seminoles.They need a fresh start and that all starts with letting their Offensive Coordinator and Head Coach in Waiting actually become the Head Coach. Bobby Bowden is a legend. He built a terrible team into a program that had the most impressive 14 year run in the history of college football and as much as I respect Coach Bowden; it’s time for him to let it go. The ‘Noles need a young, charismatic Head Coach like Jimbo Fisher.

Even if Bowden doesn’t leave after the season, it is likely that Defensive Coordinator Mickey Andrews will, which is probably a good thing for FSU. Andrews and the whole defensive staff need an overhaul. FSU hasn’t had a typical dominating defense in quite some time and currently ranked 115th against the pass. They have no pass rush and their secondary has been awful. At times, their defense looks lost. If Fisher soon becomes the Head coach and is able to put together his own staff, the ‘Noles can potentially get back to where they want to be. Fisher has not proven himself to be the right man for the job yet, but he has showed some positive signs. No one will really know what Fisher can do until he has complete control of the team and is able to make his own decisions about his own coaching staff.

And if that’s not the case, there’s always Brian Kelly…

Performance of the Week

Jeremiah Masoli, QB, Oregon After being criticized for his disastrous start to the season, the Junior Quarterback silenced his critics. Masoli threw just four incompletions, going 21-25 for 253 with three touchdowns on Saturday. Oregon destroyed 6th ranked Cal 42-3 and Masoli was largely responsible.

“On offense the sky’s the limit for us,” Masoli said with confidence. “We’re the only ones who can hurt us. These last couple of weeks we’ve been in a funk, but today we moved past that.”

The Heisman Favorite

Last week, I hopped on the Jahvid Best bandwagon but after his 16-carry, 55-yard performance in a 42-3 loss to Oregon, Best has pretty much lost any hope to take home the hardware. It looks like the two frontrunners remain the same – the 2007 Heisman Trophy winner, Florida QB Tim Tebow and Texas QB, Colt McCoy.

Tebow may have had the flu but he looked like his normal self against Kentucky after a less than average performance against Tennessee. He was 5-10 for just 44 yards and a TD but had 16 carries for 123 yards and 2 TDs before he left the game late in the third quarter after suffering a concussion with a 31-7 lead. Tebow continues to put up pedestrian passing numbers but he continues to run well, rarely turns the ball over and keeps leading his team to victory.

The big question about Tebow this week is why he was in the game in the third quarter with a 24-point lead. A case could be made that the Florida Coach Urban Meyer should have had Tebow out because he was sick. Under normal circumstances, there’s no Head Coach in the country that would have their starting QB out with a 24 point lead in only the third quarter. Hits are put of football and with how often Tebow runs the ball and takes hit, this was bound to happen. It seems like he is fine and will be good to go in the highly anticipated showdown with LSU on October 10.

Colt McCoy has been pretty good as well but could be playing much better. McCoy was 28-35 for 286 yards with 3 TDs in a 64-7 win over Utep on Saturday. He is now 103-145 with 1,145 yards and 9 TDs. He also has rushed for a TD. These are Heisman-like numbers on a top team, but his interception numbers are worrying me. He has thrown at least one interception in each game this season and has five total for the season. Although Tebow is just 44-68 for 643 yards and 6 TDs, his rushing (271 yards, 5 TDs) and his ability to make good decisions (just one interception on an incredible catch by Eric Berry) keeps him atop the list for now. McCoy will have plenty of chances to move back ahead of Tebow and I won’t be surprised if he does.

Last week, I mentioned Jacory Harris as a potential dark horse, but he played himself right out of that (see above).

Houston QB Case Keenum may no longer be a dark horse contender because he has now lead his team to wins over two Big 12 teams – Oklahoma State and Texas Tech. Keenum is 93-134 for 1,160 yards with 8 TDs and 2 INTs. He also has three rushing TDs, giving him more total yards then either Tebow or McCoy and more total TDs then both. He has also thrown just two interceptions and his last touchdown Saturday was a four yard run with :49 left and his team trailing by five.

Cincinnati QB Tony Pike is 93-132 for 1223 yards and 11 TDs with just two interceptions. He also has two rushing TDs . He had lead his team to road wins at Big East rival Rutgers and at Oregon State.

Notre Dame QB Jimmy Clausen played his worst game of the season against Purdue Saturday. He threw his first interception in that game and threw for just 171 yards after passing for 300 or more yards in each of his first three games, but Clausen still hit Kyle Rudolph for the game winning TD with :25 leading Notre Dame to their second straight come from behind win. Clausen is 77-117 with1,122 yards with 10 TDs and one interception.

My Top 15

The more I see out of teams, the more teams I will rank, eventually giving an entire Top 25.

1. Florida
2. Alabama
3. Texas
4. LSU
5. Boise State
6. Virginia Tech
7. Cincinnati
8. Houston
9. Oklahoma
10. USC
11. Ohio State
12. TCU
13. Iowa
14. Oregon
15. Oklahoma State

Game of the Week

LSU @ Georgia

The Line: Georgia -3

In week one, the Dogs looked like they were going to have a lot of trouble on offense after 24-10 loss to Oklahoma State in Stillwater but since then the Dogs have lit up the scoreboard. They scored 41 points against a South Carolina defense that held QB Russell Wilson and NC State to just three points Jevon Snead and Ole Miss to just 10 points. They also scored 52 points at Arkansas before struggling to win 20-17 at home against Arizona State. The Dogs held the Sun Devils to just 204 yards and had 334 yards themselves but had they had three turnovers, including two Joe Cox interceptions that kept the Sun Devils in the game. Luckily for the Dogs, they bounced back and got themselves in position to win the game on a last second field goal. If they make those kind of mistakes against the Tigers, they won’t be so lucky.

LSU also struggled last weekend. Mississippi State had first and goal at the 2 with less than two minutes to play and LSU stopped the Bulldogs all four times, leaving Starkville with a 30-26 victory. LSU didn’t look good at all. The Bulldogs had over 100 more total yards than the Tigers, but committed four turnovers while LSU did not turn the ball over. The Tigers managed just 30 yards rushing – that’s not going to cut it.

If this game becomes another shootout, I think it will favor the Dogs considering they have already beat two pretty good teams in that style of a game. However, I think LSU got a wake-up call last week and will not allow that to happen.

I like LSU in this game. I don’t think that they will be looking ahead to the Florida game and I think their defense is going to force Joe Cox and the Georgia offense into mistakes because of LSU’s ability to shut down the Georgia running game. LSU’s talented WRs should be able to take advantage of these mistakes. Plus, the Tigers have already gone into one hostile environment (Washington) and come out with a victory.

Upset Alert

I was going to take Michigan State over Michigan but then I saw that the Spartans are actually a two-point favorite.

I’m going to put Georgia Tech on upset alert. The Jackets must travel to Starkville to take on Mississippi State. I’m not going to pick the Bulldogs to win the game but their near upset of LSU should give them some confidence against a Tech team that may be looking ahead to their next two games – a game in Tallahassee with the Seminoles and matchup at home against Virginia Tech in two weeks that could put Georgia Tech right back in the mix for an ACC title.

Other Potential Upsets:

UCLA @ Stanford – 5.5

Stanford is coming off a huge win over Washington, but the Bruins have played well. They are 3-0 and have two non-conference BCS wins (@Tennessee, Kansas State).

NC State @ Wake Forest – 2.5 I expect this one to happen. NC State has the more talented team.

USC – 5 @ Cal

Cal is coming off a terrible performance against Oregon by any team going on the road with a freshman Quarterback and a lot of inexperience has the potential to struggle.

(Andrew Melnick is Howard the Dunk’s lead blogger. Subscribe to his RSS feed and add him on Twitter to follow him daily.)

Heavily Favored Trojans Go Down (Again)

Once again USC lost to an overmatched conference foe. This time, the Washington Huskies took down the Trojans. Don’t get me wrong, Washington is a very improved team. They played the 7th ranked LSU Tigers very tough. Steve Sarkisian is going to put this former power program back on the map, but they aren’t there yet making this a game that USC should not have lost. Then again, neither was Oregon State in ’08, neither was Stanford in ’07, and neither was UCLA in 2006, but the Trojans still managed to lose each game. Had they won any of these games, they would have played for the National Championship. If we are going to get on Jim Tressel for losing big games, shouldn’t we get on Pete Carroll for losing one of these games every year? Carroll is a great coach and a great recruiter, but shouldn’t we put some of the blame on him? His team should be able to get up before every game and even if they don’t, they should be able to recover in time to win these games against such lesser teams. This can’t all be on the players. This is more of a coaching issue.

Sure, we can blame the loss on Matt Barkley being hurt and Aaron Corp making his first career start and sure we can blame it on Steve Sarkisian, USC’s former Offensive Coordinator and the coaches that he took with him to Washington from USC but those are just more excuses for a football program that shouldn’t need to make up excuses. The athletes that USC recruits are just too talented to lose games like this. Southern Cal needs to start winning these games and if they don’t, Pete Carroll will never claim his second BCS championship.

Moral Victory?

After Lane Kiffin and his Tennessee Volunteers lost to the Florida Gators for the fifth straight season, many experts are calling it a moral victory for Kiffin’s squad because the top ranked Gators only beat the Vols 23-13. What? Is that what the once-proud Tennessee program has come to? Celebrating losses? When should a loss to one of your top rivals ever be considered a moral victory?

I do agree that Tennessee’s defense played very well, but they played very well in 2008 against the Gators in a 30-6 loss as well. This is why I don’t understand why the way Tennessee played defense is suddenly a blueprint on how take down the Gators. Actually, Tennessee’s defense only allowed 243 total yards in 2008 and allowed 323 yards this year. In fact, Tebow had a lower completion percentage, less yards rushing and less yards passing in their 2008 meeting. Had Tebow not uncharacteristically fumbled in the fourth quarter while Florida had a 23-6 lead, it’s likely the end result would have been the same 30-6 score.

Can Florida Be Beaten?

Monte Kiffin is an incredible defensive mind, but I’m not sure that his scheme is what made the Vols play so well on defense. Instead I believe it was players like LB Rico McCoy, All-American Safety Eric Berry and a pretty good Tennessee pass rush.

Do I agree that Florida could have some problems? Yes. I think they can potentially be run on up the middle if a team has a really dominating offensive line and you can use a ball-control offense to keep the ball out of Tebow’s hands. This running game could open up the play-action pass, but Tennessee’s Jonathan Crompton and his WRs were not good enough to take advantage of this situation. Then again, with Florida’s talent in the back 7 and their pass rush, I’m not sure a team even could take advantage of this anyway. Sam Bradford and Oklahoma’s high scoring offense didn’t seem to be able to, scoring just 14 points in last season’s BCS Championship game. With Brandon Spikes in the middle, he could make up for an opposing team that  is strong up the middle in their line and has a good running game. And like the rest of the team, they are still very capable players in the middle of Florida’s defensive line. Still, there is hope for the rest of nation – no team is unbeatable, but Florida is and should be the odds on favorite to win it all right now. Florida does need to find a playmaker at WR to replace Percy Harvin and Louis Murphy. They thought they had one in Freshman Andre Debose, but he is out for the season with a hamstring injury. There is talent there, but no one really stepped up on Saturday.

Is the U “Back?”

Most experts and pundits have already answered this question with a resounding yes. I nearly put them in my top 5. Yes, they were a dropped pass away from losing their opening game to rival Florida State but came away with a 38-34 victory on the road. Miami’s defense had as much trouble stopping Christian Ponder and FSU as they had stopping Miami, but FSU’s blowout win over BYU helps Miami’s raise Miami’s stock quite a bit. After Florida State dropped 54 points in Provo against the Cougars, Miami’s defense doesn’t look so bad.

The ‘Canes then took on a team in Georgia Tech that scored 41 points and gained an astounding 421 yards rushing and took a 41-10 lead into the fourth quarter last season. Last Thursday was very different. After a nice 13 play, 45 yard drive to open the game that netted a field goal, Georgia Tech couldn’t get much going. Miami answered with a quick four play, 75 yard drive that ended in a Jacory Harris touchdown pass and the ‘Canes never looked back. Miami held the Jackets to just 94 yards rushing. Last year’s ACC Offensive Player of the Year, Jonathan Dwyer had just seven yards on five carries.

Jacory Harris has been the story for the ‘Canes. So far he’s completing 69.5% of his passes, is passing for 328 yards per game, has thrown 5 TDs and has 2 interceptions, but the ‘Cane’s defense is what will make or break the season. If they can keep playing the way they played Thursday night, they will be hard to beat. Saturday will be their offense’s toughest test as they face the Virginia Tech Hokies in Lane Stadium.

So Much for the MWC and the BCS

The Mountain West Conference has tried to get an automatic bid into the BCS, but has been unsuccessful in their bid thus far. Maybe now we know why.

The MWC has had one team (Utah) win two BCS bowl games. The ’04 Utes lead by Alex Smith went undefeated and destroyed Pittsburgh 35-7 in the Fiesta Bowl. Last year’s Utes were even more impressive. They finished their season with a Sugar Bowl win over Alabama 31-17. The Utes beat an Alabama team that finished the 2008 regular season unbeaten.

The 2009 Utes had their 16 game winning streak snapped by the Oregon Ducks on Saturday, losing 31-24 in Autzen Stadium. Utah cut a 21-7 deficit to 28-24 but the Utes could not get any closer. Utah gave up 217 yards rushing to an Oregon team that is without starting RB LeGarrette Blount for the remainder of the season. Oregon isn’t exactly a powerhouse team either. They opened the season by being dominated by Boise State. Then they barely survived a game against a bad Purdue team last week. Utah fell out of the top 25 after previously being ranked 18th.

It was even worse for the 7th ranked BYU Cougars. After upsetting Oklahoma 14-13 and then dismantling Tulane 54-3, national title talk emerged in Provo. That talk quickly went away after the Cougars were blown out at home by Florida State. Christian Ponder and company scored early and often in route to a 54-28 victory over BYU in Provo. The Cougars gave up 512 total yards, including 313 yards rushing. The Seminole defense all forced five turnovers, including three Max Hall interceptions. So, not only did BYU’s BCS hopes come crashing down but so did Max Hall’s Heisman hopes. He now has as many touchdowns as he does interceptions (Six). The Seminoles on the other hand, made people forget about their terrible performance against Jacksonville State (a 19-9 win in which they trailed with a minute left), put themselves back into the top 25 and back onto the national radar. Who wouldn’t love to see Miami-FSU part 2 in Tampa for the ACC Championship?

TCU is still unbeaten but probably doesn’t have the schedule to get into the BCS. TCU must travel to BYU and host Utah in conference. TCU handled one of the two worst teams in the ACC, Virginia, but face their stiffest test this Saturday in Memorial Stadium against the Clemson Tigers. Clemson is a three-point favorite.

Why Give Love to Notre Dame?

Call me unimpressed. Jimmy Clausen has been very good but his team has not. After being unable to stop Michigan’s True Freshman QB Tate Forcier virtually all game in a 38-34 loss in the big house, Notre Dame allowed 30 points against the Michigan State Spartans. They would be just 1-2 if Larry Caper would have been able to haul in a pass from MSU QB Kirk Cousins. At worst, MSU would have tied the game if not for Cousins’ ill-advised pass on 2nd and 10 at the Irish 18 yard line that was picked off by Kyle McCarthy. Remember, this was a Michigan State team fresh off of a loss at home against Central Michigan.

Now, Notre Dame’s top big-play Wide Receiver this season, Michael Floyd is out for the season after breaking his collar bone on a near touchdown. Floyd had just 13 receptions in the first three games, but those 13 receptions went for 358 yards and five TDs. Golden Tate is a very good WR, but now another target outside of TE Kyle Rudolph must step up. Notre Dame’s defense needs to improve a lot after giving up a combined 68 points to Michigan and Michigan State.

Charlie Weis may have saved his job for another week, but I’m not sure how long he can keep this up, because Notre Dame’s easy schedule suddenly doesn’t seem as easy. Michigan was supposed to be a win for the Irish. After playing at Purdue, the Irish must deal with Washington, which was probably checked off as a win before the Huskies upset USC. They also must play USC and Boston college, a team they have lost six straight times to, at home. They have road trips to Pittsburgh and an improved Stanford team. Sure, there schedule isn’t overly difficult but with the way their defense is playing, there is still potential for what would be an extremely disappointing 8-4 season.

Performance of the Week

Greg Paulus, QB, Syracuse

The former Duke Point Guard playing in just his third career college football game had two turnovers, but made up for it by going 24-35 for 346 yards with two TDs. Paulus also rushed for a TD in a 37-34 upset win over Northwestern. After taking a 27-21 lead, the Orange feel behind 34-27. Paulus lead his team on a six play, 70-yard drive that ended with a 13 yard TD pass from Paulus to Mike Williams (who was also outstanding, catching 11 balls for 209 and two TDs). After Syracuse intercepted a pass, Paulus started his final drive on the Northwestern 39. He completed two more passes to set up the game winning field goal, a 41 yarder by Ryan Lichtenstein as time expired giving Paulus and the Orange their first win.

The Heisman Favorite

As good as QBs Tim Tebow and Colt McCoy are, neither has played up to their potential this season. Tebow was rather pedestrian in his first “real” game of the season against Tennessee after playing two cupcakes, passing for just 115 yards, rushing for 76 yards and turning the ball over twice (one Interception, one fumble). Tebow is 39-58 for 540 yards with five TDs and one interception in three games. He has 148 yards rushing and three TDs. McCoy threw one TD and two interceptions against rival Texas Tech and is 75-110 with 859 yards through three games. He has six TDs and four interceptions. He also has one rushing TD.

Jahvid Best, the junior RB from California, has been the nation’s best player so far. I’m not sold on Cal but I am certainly sold on Best as the nation’s best back. He rushed for 131 yards and FIVE TDs as Cal avoided the upset at Minnesota. Best has 412 yards on just 53 attempts this season. That’s an average of 7.8 yards per carry which is actually down from his 8.1 ypc last season. Best has eight TD runs. He also has seven catches for 59 yards and another TD, giving him eight total.

If Best does not keep it up in Cal’s next two contests, which are probably the Bear’s two biggest games of the year, at Oregon and home against USC, Miami QB Jacory Harris and Houston QB Case Keenum could get into the race. With all that being said, I expect both Tebow and McCoy’s numbers to improve throughout the season.

My Top 10

It’s early for any kind of top 10. Many teams on this list (Florida, Cal, Penn State, & Ole Miss) are yet to be really tested. Ole Miss, Penn State, and Cal all face top 25 caliber teams this week, so things should become a little clearer after the weekend. This is a mix of pre-season expectations and current performance.

1. Florida
2. Alabama
3. Texas
4. California
5. LSU
6. Miami
7. Penn State
8. Ole Miss
9. Boise State
10. Cincinnati

Game of the Week for September 26

Miami @ Virginia Tech

The Line: Miami -2.5

College GameDay will be at College Station to cover Iowa and Penn State, but they should be making the trip to Blacksburg. Then again, Kirk Herbstreit isn’t announcing the Miami-Virginia Tech.

Virginia Tech QB Tyrod Taylor has really struggled this season but made big plays when he had to last Saturday against Nebraska. First, Taylor scrambled and found Danny Coale on an 81 yard pass with just over a minute to go. Then, just three plays later, he avoided several tackles and extended a 3rd and goal with his feet before throwing an 11-yard touchdown to Dyrell Roberts. Taylor has to be MUCH more consistent if the Hokies want to have any shot at defeating the Hurricanes.

The Hokies will give Jacory Harris his toughest test defensively, but Harris has been fantastic this season and has handled just about everything anyone has thrown at him. The ‘Canes also seem to have found their running game, rushing for 184 yards against Georgia Tech.

Virginia Tech will have to rely on the run and after the way Miami defended Georgia’s Tech powerful rushing attack, I’m going to have pick the ‘Canes to cover, leave Blacksburg unbeaten and continue their surprising early season run.

Ole Miss on Upset Alert

South Carolina +5 over Ole Miss

Ole Miss has yet to prove themselves. South Carolina defeated a probable bowl bound NC State team in their house with an incredible defensive effort, winning 7-3. The offense got back on track a week later, but the Gamecocks came up just short as they failed to convert a 4th and goal inside Georgia’s 10 yard line and lost 41-37. Junior QB Stephen Garcia has shown improvement since the first game. He has 683 yards and is completing 62.7% of his passes compared with a 53.3 completion % last season. He has three TDs and two interceptions.

Rebel QB Jevan Snead does have 5 TDs and 384 yards but Ole Miss has played Memphis and Southeastern Louisiana so far. Snead struggled against the Tigers, throwing two interceptions in a 45-14 win. Ole Miss has a very tough run defense and South Carolina has just seemed to find their running game, improving each week, and rushing for 287 yards in a win over Florida Atlantic last week.

I think Steve Spurrier may have finally found his Quarterback and the home crowd combined with a Thursday night atmosphere will give 4th ranked Mississippi their first loss of the season.

(Andrew Melnick is Howard the Dunk’s lead blogger and an avid college football fan. Subscribe to his RSS feed and add him on Twitter to follow him daily.)

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#	+/-		Team	Comment
1	–		Georgia Bulldogs	I have to rank Georgia as #1, only because they beat Florida last year when Tim Tebow had a bummed shoulder. The battle in Jacksonville between the two SEC East rivals will be great theater.
2	–		Florida Gators	Tim Tebow did everything last season but he won’t have to this year. Chris Rainey is probably going to emerge as a star beside Cornelius Igram and Percy Harvin in the nation’s most potent offense.
3	–		USC Trojans	USC is the program every athletic director in the country wished they had. With Mark Sanchez under center the Trojans are once again loaded with talent and should run through the Pac 10 with ease.
4	–		Ohio State Buckeyes	Back to back national championship games and back to back embarrasing losses to SEC teams once they get there. Don’t even begin to ask me why two SEC teams are ahead of the Buckeyes.
5	–		Oklahoma Sooners	What Sam Bradford did last season was amazing, but he was overshadowed by Tebow’s record breaking year and the fact that OU has struggled in recent BCS games. Expect them to bounce back in a big way this year.
6	–		West Virginia Mountainners	You are reading it here first (gulp)….Noel Devine will be better than Steve Slaton was during his career if he can stay out of trouble in Morgantown. He has all the talent in the world.
7	–		Clemson Tigers	Here’s the team I think could surprise a lot of people this year. They’ve probably got the most talented backfield in all of college football; Cullen Harper, James Davis, and C. J. Spiller.
8	–		Missouri Tigers	Chase Daniel led Missouri to a #1 ranking going into the Big 12 Title game last year. This year their goal is to prove that last season was no fluke. They have the talent to do that very thing.
9	–		Wisconsin Badgers	Is Wisconsin really the nation’s 9th best team? I feel as if there is a small bit of separation between the top eight and the next tier of teams. The Badgers have P. J. Hill and Travis Beckum and they seem like a good place to start.
10	–		Texas Longhorns	I actually like Colt McCoy, although it seems no one outside of Texas does. The big question for the Longhorns is at running back after losing Jamaal Charles to the NFL Draft.
11	–		Auburn Tigers	Kodi Burns will be the starting QB for Auburn, and the Tigers should be very good. The SEC West race appears wide open and should be Auburn’s for the taking.
12	–		LSU Tigers	The first problem in Baton Rouge is trying to find a replacement to Ryan Perrilloux. It appears Harvard transfer Andrew Hatch will fill that spot. With that talented defense it may not matter who starts at QB for the defending national champions.
13	–		Kansas Jayhawks	Were the Jayhawks a fluke last season? I sure hope not. Quarterback Todd Reesing is the real deal when it comes to running the spread offense.
14	–		Texas Tech Red Raiders	I keep talking about how WR Michael Crabtree is a can’t miss prospect. At least I’m not the only one who thinks that way, I actually heard ESPN college football analyst Joe Schad say that Crabtree could catch 30 TD passes this year.
15	–		South Florida Bulls	I am a Matt Grothe fan. The kid has a great arm and understands the game of football. Plus somebody has to challenge West Virginia in the Big East right? Why not the team that actually beat the Mountaineers last season?
16	–		Virginia Tech Hokies	The ACC looks like it is headed for another very down season. Despite losing Brandon Ore by dismissal the Hokies should still be one of the favorites to win the conference.
17	–		BYU Cougars	The next tier of the top 25 seems to be here. BYU has the nation’s longest winning streak and is led by quarterback Max Hall. Their battle against Utah to end their regular season November 22nd could be for a BCS bowl.
18	–		Tennessee Volunteers	The Volunteers are the 5th SEC team already listed here, and yet people ask who the strongest conference is. Last year they made the SEC Championship game after blowout losses to Florida & Alabama, so there’s no telling what to expect.
19	–		Utah Utes	I really think that either BYU or Utah will be playing in a BCS Bowl game at the end of the season. The Utes get both TCU and BYU at home, so they should be favored in both of their tough games.
20	–		Arizona State Sun Devils	Rudy Carpenter and the Sun Devils are out to prove that their amazing turnaround in 2007 was a fluke ( a word I’ve used a lot in this article). They play both USC and Georgia, which means they will be a team to watch.
21	–		Penn State Nittany Lions	I’ve seen Penn State ranked as high as the top ten by some experts’ rankings and as low as completely outside the top 25 in others. I think Maurice Evans will be great, but can they find a succesfful quarterback?
22	–		Michigan State Spartans	Even losing Devin Thomas I think the Spartans can be very good in 2008. If they can win their opener at California and survive games against teams they should beat (ND & IND) then they could get Ohio State at home at 7-0. Think of that OSU fans.
23	–		Fresno State Bulldogs	The last two seasons WAC teams have made BCS Bowl games. This year Pat Hill’s bunch has a tough schedule; Rutgers, UCLA, Wisconsin, & Boise State but if they can somehow manage to escape those four with one loss then they should be in the top 15 when the final polls are released in January.
24	–		Illinois Fighting Illini	Quarterback Juice Williams is very inconsistent but if he can play well all season (which I know he is capable of) then Illinois has a chance to play in the Rose Bowl again.
25	–		Pittsburgh Panthers	LeSean McCoy is one of the nation’s best running backs, but he will have to carry this Panthers offense. Last year he ran for 1,328 yards and 14 TDs.

QB | RB | WR | TE | T | G/C | DT | DE | LB | CB | S | K | P

1. Chris Wells (Ohio State)* Round Projection: Early-Middle 1st Wells has been great at Ohio State and should have another fantastic season for the Buckeyes. Expect him to go in round one unless he just completely falls off the map.

	2. Knowshon Moreno (Georgia)* Round Projection: Middle 1st He’s young and was redshirted as a Freshman so he is illegible here. Not sure if he will leave or not but if he does the NFL scouts will love him. He’s a powerful runner and he’s quick when he gets in the open field.
	3. C. J. Spiller (Clemson) Round Projection: 1st-2nd You’ve got think that one of the two great running backs from Clemson will go high in the draft. Will it be Spiller or James Davis? Right now it looks like Spiller is the better pro prospect.
	4. LeSean McCoy (Pittsburgh)* Round Projection: 2nd-5th A lot of people like McCoy’s chances to make a run at the Heisman this year. He makes good cuts and accelerates quick when he finds the open field.
	5. James Davis (Clemson) Round Projection: 2nd-6th His stock is up and down, it just depends on who you talk to. We will learn more about him, and his teammate C. J. Spiller, during the season.
	6. Jason Ringer (Michigan State) Round Projection: 2nd-6th Another guy all over the map. Most people believe he will go in the first three rounds but this isn’t exactly the strongest batch of running backs I’ve ever seen.
	7. Marion Lucky (Nebraska) Round Projection: 3rd-6th Lucky can move up considerably in this draft if he plays well this season. He’s another player a lot of guys are really high while other guys aren’t high on him.
	8. Arian Foster (Tennessee) Round Projection: 5th-7th Foster ran for 1,159 yards and 12 touchdowns last year which is pretty impressive numbers against the defenses of the SEC.
	9. P. J. Hill (Wisconsin) Round Projection: 5th-7th Hill is a very powerful running back and runs an incredible 4.64 40 yard dash. He’s not very fast though and that will hurt his stock. He will be like Brandon Jacobs in the NFL.
	10. Andre Brown (North Carolina State) Round Projection: 5th-7th Just call this a hunch. He’s recovering from a broken foot but ran well before he broke it last season. I think he will bounce back and be a good NFL running back