2016 NFL Draft: Late Round QB Could Be Next Tom Brady

One question that came up in the 2016 NFL draft, as it has for the past 16 years, is whether the class has “the next Tom Brady.”

That is to say a quarterback who went in the late rounds that teams may have overlooked but can transform into a capable starter down the road. Given how much more frantic the searches have become, most feel that’s unlikely to happen again. Yet with Russell Wilson (3^rd round) doing his thing in Seattle, Kirk Cousins (4^th round) leading the Redskins to the playoffs and Tyrod Taylor (6^th round) going to the Pro Bowl perhaps it’s not such a crazy question to ask.

There are certainly some intriguing names that could fit the bill. Connor Cook, who won Rose and Fiesta bowls at Michigan State and was projected as a possible 1^st rounder, fell to Raiders in the 4^th round. Unfortunately he’s behind a budding star in Derek Carr. Cardale Jones is a freakish physical talent who won a national title for Ohio State. One would think being in Buffalo gives him a great shot to see the field, but given the instability of the coaching staff and his own mechanical problems, it’s hard to imagine he’s in the best position to succeed.

No, the name that everybody should be watching carefully is Kevin Hogan.

https://twitter.com/StanfordFball/status/746128464017711112

"“He is accurate. He does pretty much everything well. He has a funny release. Doesn’t Philip Rivers have a funny release?” His passer rating was 104.2 and his record was 16-6 against AP top 25 opponents. “That (delivery) doesn’t bother me,” said a second scout. “Sonny Jurgensen had a really weird release. Throws it like Philip Rivers. He’s cerebral, smooth.”"

Indeed all throughout the draft process people kept knocking his funky delivery, which was slower than preferred and threatened to allow pass rushers time to get to him before the ball was out. It made it easy to overlook exactly what the Stanford product did well. Namely it was win, but also how polished he is as a quarterback, not just a passer.

Few players in the 2016 class were better at maximizing the impact of their pass plays given limited opportunities from a run-first offense. This past season he threw the ball just 304 times, which was 48 times fewer than the year before but he still managed more yards (2,867 to 2,792) and touchdowns (27 to 19). So it’s clear he understands how to play the game the right way, and it’s so underappreciated how important that is to having success in the NFL.

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Then there is the matter of his situation. Alex Smith is 32-years old now and has made the playoffs twice since coming to Kansas City. The results have been largely the same. Every time he’s been asked to match a top quarterback, he’s failed. In fairness he played extremely well against the Colts in 2013 but failed to put the final nail in the coffin. Then against New England he squandered numerous chances to close the gap against the Patriots.

Smith is a former Pro Bowler, but by this point it’s fair to say the team has seen his best and it might not be good enough. Thus the opportunity for another to challenge for the job is open. Best of all Hogan will have a chance to play under Andy Reid, one of the best developers of quarterbacks in football. Brett Favre, Donovan McNabb, Jeff Garcia, Michael Vick and Smith have all gone to Pro Bowls under his watch. He’s not a coach who’s afraid to make a change if he feels a player gives his team the best odds to win.

If Hogan can somehow get an chance to start like Brady did, there is no doubting the Kansas City Chiefs head coach will ride it out with him. Means, motive and opportunity are prevalent in every quarterback story. Kevin Hogan can be that next late rounder to defy the stacked deck against him.

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