2016 NFL Draft: Which Positions Should Be Targeted Early?
By Erik Lambert
Everybody knows the biggest key to success in the 2016 NFL draft will be hitting on the early round picks because they offer the highest percentage chance of getting a player who can become a starter on offense or defense at the pro level. However, as anyone knows to draft one position of need early means to sacrifice another to the later rounds. The best thing teams can hope for is somehow getting lucky and finding a hidden gem other teams overlooked.
This begs an interesting question. Which position groups offer the largest likelihood of finding a quality talent late in the draft and which are far better off being addressed as early as the 1st or 2nd rounds? To help provide an answer, some data was collect going back the previous five years and determining which round every player at every position who reached at least one Pro Bowl went in. This might offer an interesting barometer as to how it might be best to attack a draft based on position.
Here are the numbers broken down
Quarterbacks
- 1st – 5
- 2nd – 2
- 3rd – 2
- 4th – 0
- 5th – 0
- 6th – 1
- 7th – 0
Running Backs
- 1st – 5
- 2nd – 2
- 3rd – 1
- 4th – 1
- 5th – 0
- 6th – 2
- 7th – 0
Wide Receivers
- 1st – 8
- 2nd – 6
- 3rd – 3
- 4th – 0
- 5th – 0
- 6th – 1
- 7th – 1
Tight Ends
- 1st – 2
- 2nd – 2
- 3rd – 2
- 4th – 2
- 5th – 0
- 6th – 0
- 7th – 0
Offensive Tackles
- 1st – 4
- 2nd – 0
- 3rd – 0
- 4th – 0
- 5th – 0
- 6th – 0
- 7th – 0
Offensive Guards
- 1st – 5
- 2nd – 1
- 3rd – 0
- 4th – 0
- 5th – 0
- 6th – 0
- 7th – 0
Centers
- 1st – 2
- 2nd – 0
- 3rd – 0
- 4th – 0
- 5th – 0
- 6th – 1
- 7th – 0
Defensive Tackles
- 1st – 8
- 2nd – 1
- 3rd – 1
- 4th – 1
- 5th – 0
- 6th – 0
- 7th – 0
Defensive Ends
- 1st – 8
- 2nd – 1
- 3rd – 0
- 4th – 1
- 5th – 0
- 6th – 1
- 7th – 0
Linebackers
- 1st – 5
- 2nd – 5
- 3rd – 2
- 4th – 0
- 5th – 0
- 6th – 0
- 7th – 0
Defensive Backs
- 1st – 10
- 2nd – 1
- 3rd – 1
- 4th – 2
- 5th – 4
- 6th – 1
- 7th – 0
The number tell a rather fascinating story. Based on this outlook, there are a few interesting facts. It would seem teams looking for offensive line help would best be served getting theirs early since just one Pro Bowler out of nine has been drafted outside the 2nd round. The same problem with quarterbacks as the bulk of the true talents disappear after the 3rd round.
Meanwhile areas like wide receivers, running backs and defensive backs have proven far more plentiful in the later rounds with Pro Bowlers appearing at each of those positions in almost every one. Perhaps this is due to richer talent pools, variety of scheme fits and quality of athletes. Either way the guiding principle becomes clearer.
Granted, the 2016 NFL draft may not bend directly to this establish trend but it at least offers teams a guideline for how they may want to approach. Interested in a quarterback or a lineman? Best get them within the top 100 picks. It’s much safer waiting to grab skill position players in the later rounds than it is anywhere else.