NFL Game Picks Week 11: Denver Broncos at Chicago Bears
By Erik Lambert
Sep 3, 2015; Denver, CO, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Brock Osweiler (17) prepares to pass in the second quarter of a preseason game against the Arizona Cardinals at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
Though their records may not highlight the matchup of the weak, the Denver Broncos and Chicago Bears nonetheless have a ton to play for in week 11. One is 4-5 and surging into the playoff picture while the other is fading in the pursuit of home field advantage and just lost its starting quarterback.
Backdrop:
Two franchise that are so interconnect on so many levels. Not only do they both feature storied histories and similar color schemes on their uniforms, but they also have connections at the coach and player levels. Bears head coach John Fox and quarterback Jay Cutler are set to face their former Broncos team for the first time respectively since each was unceremoniously sent packing.
They’re also two teams going in opposite directions. After a 7-0 start, Denver is reeling from two ugly losses along with the physical breakdown of quarterback Peyton Manning who will miss the game. After an 0-3 start, Chicago has won four of its last six including a 37-13 drubbing of St. Louis last week. Can the Broncos get back on track with backup QB Brock Osweiler and their stout defense or will revenge be served at cold Soldier Field?
Matchup To Watch:
OLB Von Miller vs. OT Charles Leno Jr.
DeMarcus Ware is also not expected to play for the Broncos, which puts further responsibility for their pass rush on the shoulders of star linebacker Von Miller. He must make Cutler as uncomfortable as possible. His primary target must be left tackle Charles Leno Jr.
A reserve at the start of the season, the second-year man out of Boise State stepped in when veteran Jermon Bushrod went down. He’s played so well since then that the team has decided to keep him in place. Leno has allowed just one sack in the past five games. Miller must show who is the better player.
Key Stat:
Switching from Manning to Osweiler almost guarantees that head coach Gary Kubiak will try to run the football for Denver. The team has struggled doing so, ranking 29th in the league at 86 yards per game. They go against an improved Bears defense but one that still plays soft against the run, allowing 118 yards per game (26th in NFL). Expect whomever control the action on that front to have a big impact on the outcome.
Prediction: Bears win 24-17
This will be largely a defensive struggle. Osweiler will put together a few good drives but his lack of experience and being on the road aren’t likely to bring out his best. The Broncos defense will keep them in the game most of the way but in the end will succumb to fatigue and Chicago pulls away late.