2016 NFL Draft Scouting Report: Kevin Hogan, QB, Stanford
By Erik Lambert
October 24, 2015; Stanford, CA, USA; Stanford Cardinal quarterback Kevin Hogan (8) passes the football against the Washington Huskies during the first quarter at Stanford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
The senior class of quarterbacks for the 2016 NFL draft looks fairly strong. Among their crowd is young Kevin Hogan of the Stanford Cardinal. What is there to know about him and where he might stand come next April?
Position: QB
School: Stanford
Year: Senior
Height: 6’4″
Weight: 225 lbs
History:
Hogan had the unenviable task of replacing a legend at Stanford in eventual #1 overall pick Andrew Luck. He wasn’t the first choice though. In 2012, it took nine games for him to get on the field as a freshman starter when Luck’s original replacement Josh Nunes was finally benched after struggling. Hogan promptly led the Cardinal to a huge upset of Oregon, claimed the Pac-12 title and won the Rose Bowl.
He’s been the starter ever since. Two years ago he again got his team to the Rose Bowl but lost a close game to Cinderella participant Michigan State. For his college career thus far he has completed 65.4% of his passes for 8,349 yards, 64 touchdowns and 27 interceptions. There are few senior quarterbacks with more experience than him in playing (and winning) big games.
STRENGTHS:
• Full understanding of how to run a pro-style offense. Very good feeding off a strong ground game.
• No problems with velocity. When he is allowed to deliver it unobstructed, the ball gets to its target in a hurry. Should have no problem throwing all the passes in the playbook.
This pass is a beauty. Hogan doesn’t hesitate on the throw, delivering with proper mechanics and you can tell that there is plenty of zip on the ball because it gets there on a rope with little to no air under it. The receiver is given just a enough room to grab it in tight coverage for a big play. That’s an NFL throw.
• Advanced pocket awareness. Willing to stand in and face the rush, going through his progressions to find the open receiver.
• Can avoid the initial rush without losing his fundamentals and has the athleticism to take off and run if he has to.
• Great reflexes. Is able to unload the ball at the last possible second before getting hit and not lose speed or trajectory on his throws.
WEAKNESSES:
• Elongated, awkward throwing motion. Has a bit of a windup that would make it far easier for pass rushers to strip-sack him and doesn’t throw the best spiral.
• Tends to struggle with accuracy on even some of the easier passes. Can get a little high or low at times and doesn’t always hit receivers in stride, forcing them to adjust.
Note this is supposed to be a simple screen pass to the wide receiver. All Hogan has to do is hit him somewhere close to the numbers. Instead he almost airmails it and by the time the receiver comes down from having to go up and get it, he’s corralled by the defense for minimal gain.
• Can tend to hold the ball too long at times, allowing the pressure to set in. Needs to work on speeding up his progressions and delivering the ball quickly.
• Unloads some ill-advised passes when he’s under pressure. Doesn’t throw it away enough and won’t take sacks even when they’re warranted.
This GIF perfectly encapsulates what an enigma Hogan is. Watch how he hangs in the pocket and at the last second masterfully avoids the free rusher. Then he swings out and find the open man downfield. Unfortunately he throws an inaccurate pass that results in an incompletion.
Pro Comparison: Byron Leftwich
A lot of people will say Philip Rivers but Hogan reminds me more of the former Jacksonville Jaguars 1st rounder. The size, arm strength, windup delivery and mobility all match up well as does the somewhat inconsistent accuracy issues.
Projection: 4th to 6th rounds
Kevin Hogan has enough talent to play in the NFL but there are a lot of mechanical flaws in his game that haven’t been fixed despite playing in a pro system under a highly-respected coaching staff. Teams in general can’t learn to trust quarterbacks who may throw a wild pitch out of nowhere. That is why he will be looked at as a strong developmental prospect.