Revis, McCourty to Free Agency, What’s Next For the Patriots?

After winning the Super Bowl, teams and players only get a short period of time to back in the glory of they accomplished during the season before it’s time to get back to business. For the Patriots organization and their fan base, today was a reality check.

With the League year set to begin next week, the Patriots could be in for a very interesting couple of weeks, with two of their best players seemingly headed for the open market.

Earlier today, the Patriots decided to franchise tag their kicker, Stephen Gostkowski, instead of tagging their All-Pro safety, Devin McCourty. Along with that, Adam Schefter appeared on The Herd with Colin Cowherd, and he had this to say about the Patriots other big name player, seemingly set to hit the open market:

Sep 14, 2014; Minneapolis, MN, USA; New England Patriots cornerback Darrelle Revis (24) against the Minnesota Vikings at TCF Bank Stadium. The Patriots defeated the Vikings 30-7. Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports

"Darrelle Revis has a clause in his contract that says he can’t be [franchise] tagged again. There’s a $20 million option bonus payment that would cause a $25 million cap number,” Schefter told Cowherd. “The bottom line is it would surprise me if New England picked that up. The chances are — not the chances are — it’s going to happen, Darrelle Revis is going to hit the market. He will be another coveted free agent"

While there is still some time for the Patriots to work out new contracts for both these players, recent reports suggest that Revis and McCourty are bound to hit the open market. Ian Rapoport, a reporter for NFL Network, tweeted this, responding to a question about McCourty’s future with the team:

Using these reports as a reference point, let’s assume that both Revis and McCourty hit the open market next week, what would the Patriots be losing? How hard will it be to retain both Revis and McCourty? Are there solid replacement options out there?

First, let’s discuss the first question: What would the Patriots be losing, if Revis and McCourty were to depart from the team this offseason?

Jan 18, 2015; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots free safety Devin McCourty (32) breaks up a pass intended for Indianapolis Colts wide receiver T.Y. Hilton (13) during the second quarter in the AFC Championship Game at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports

Last season, the Patriots ranked 17th overall in opponent passing yards, surrendering 239.8 yards per game, according to ESPN.com. The Patriots only recorded 9 interceptions all year, ranking 29th in the league with Revis and McCourty accounting for four of the nine picks.

While those statistics aren’t exactly eye popping, the Patriots secondary really turned it on down the stretch, allowing only one quarterback to eclipse the 300 yards passing in a game (Ryan Tannehill in week 15 threw for 346 yards) over their last seven games, including the playoffs. On top of that, the Patriots held three quarterbacks to under 200 yards passing — Phillip Rivers, Kyle Orton and Andrew Luck in the AFC Championship Game.

In the playoffs, the Patriots intercepted five passes, with Revis and McCourty registering one interception a peace in the post season.

While the overall numbers may not be staggering, the Patriots secondary, including corner Brandon Browner and safety Patrick Chung really came together over the second half of the season, forming one of the best secondaries in the entire league and on top of their production, McCourty and Revis both brought a ton of veteran leadership and experience.

Combining their production, leadership and experience, fully replacing both Revis and McCourty, who are both considered premier players at their respected positions, would be practically impossible for the Patriots to do.

Next on the docket is: How hard will it be to retain both Revis and McCourty?

• Richard Sherman: 4-years, $57.4 million, $40 million guaranteed (averaging $14.35 million per year)
• Patrick Peterson: 5-years, $70 million, $48 million guaranteed (averaging $14 million per year)
• Joe Haden: 5-years, $68 million, $45 million guaranteed (averaging $13.6 million per year)
• Darrelle Revis: 1-year, $12 million, with a $20 million team option for a second year

Accounting for age and using these contracts as a guide, Darrelle Revis’s next contract may end up somewhere in the range of 4-year, $56.8 million, $37 million guaranteed (averaging $14.2 million per year). This would make him the second highest paid corner in the league, but his guaranteed money is in line with what Joe Haden is getting, around 65% of his deal guaranteed, due to his age and injury history. Overall, that is quite a huge contract for any team to be dishing out.

Next, let’s take a look at some of the larger safety contracts* in the NFL:

• Earl Thomas: 4-years, $40 million, $27.73 million guaranteed (averaging $10 million per year)
• Jairus Byrd: 6-years, $54 million, $26.3 million guaranteed (averaging $9 million per year)
• Dashon Goldson: 5-years, $41.25 million, $22 million guaranteed (averaging $8.25 million per year)

Accounting for age, lack of premier safeties in the NFL, and using these contracts as a guide, Devin McCourty will probably land a contract in the neighborhood of 5-years, $46.25 million, $27.75 million guaranteed (averaging $9.25 million per year). That puts him just behind Seattle’s, Earl Thomas, as the second highest paid safety in the NFL. The NFL is lacking premier safeties, so when one of them hits the open market, teams are willing to overpay in order to secure their signature.

Oct 5, 2014; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots cornerback Darrelle Revis (24) is helped off the field after a play against the Cincinnati Bengals during the second half at Gillette Stadium. The Patriots defeated the Bengals 43-17. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

Currently, the Patriots aren’t in the greatest situation cap wise, so it will be very tricky and difficult to sign both Revis and McCourty this offseason. The Patriots would likely have to rework and restructure some deals to be able to fit both McCourty’s and Revis’s contract under the cap, and the they would still need to find away to possibly retain some other free agents.

Bottom line, it will be very difficult for the Patriots to retain both Revis and McCourty next season.

With the realization that the chances of bringing back both McCourty and Revis being very slim, are there any solid replacements on the market or in the draft that could fill the holes left by Revis and McCourty?

While Revis and McCourty can’t fully be replaced, there are options available.

At cornerback, their are a few options via free agency, such as: Byron Maxwell, Kareem Jackson, Antonio Cromartie, and Chris Culliver. 

Maxwell would fit in very nicely across from his former teammate Brandon Browner. Maxwell is going to demand a good amount of money, not as much as Revis will, but still enough where the Patriots may be forced to look elsewhere, to players like Jackson and Cromartie. If the Patriots want to target a cornerback through the draft however, there are a few players they could target in the first round. They could trade up, targeting Michigan State’s Trae Waynes or Washington’s Marcus Peters, or wait and select a player like Kevin Johnson, PJ Williams, or Jalen Collins later in the first round.

At safety, the options are slim. This 2015 class is pretty poor with safety talent to say the least.

No one the Patriots bring in next season to replace either Revis or McCourty will be the caliber player that their predecessor was, but they can bring solid play to the Patriots’ secondary.

*All contract numbers were provided by OverTheCap.com