The NFL Draft Value Chart

NFL Draft geeks around the web are aware of the “NFL Draft Value Chart”, a trade value chart used by NFL general managers and teams across the league.  It was devised in the 1990’s by Jimmy Johnson and is used by teams across the league for the sake of determining what is fair value during draft day trades. The table is fairly self explanatory. If you want to, say, move up from pick 10 to pick 7, you would have to throw in something around pick 78 to get a fair trade. It is displayed below:

Pick Round 1
Value
Pick Round 2
Value
Pick Round 3
Value
Pick Round 4
Value
13000335806526597112
22600345606626098108
32200355506725599104
418003654068250100100
51700375306924510196
61600385207024010292
71500395107123510388
81400405007223010486
91350414907322510584
101300424807422010682
111250434707521510780
121200444607621010878
13
1150454507720510976
141100464407820011074
151050474307919511172
161000484208019011270
17950494108118511368
18900504008218011466
19875513908317511564
20850523808417011662
21800533708516511760
22780543608616011858
23760553508715511956
24740563408815012054
25720573308914512152
26700583209014012250
27680593109113612349
28660603009213212448
29640612929312812547
30620622849412412646
31600632769512012745
32590642709611612844

Pick Round 5
Value
Pick Round 6
Value
Pick Round 7
Value
129431612719314.2
1304216226.619413.8
1314116326.219513.4
1324016425.819613
13339.516525.419712.6
134391662519812.2
13538.516724.619911.8
1363816824.220011.4
13737.516923.820111
1383717023.420210.6
13936.51712320310.2
1403617222.62049.8
14135.517322.22059.4
1423517421.82069
14334.517521.42078.6
14434176212088.2
14533.517720.62097.8
1463317820.22107.4
14732.617919.82117
14832.218019.42126.6
14931.8181192136.2
15031.418218.62145.8
1513118318.22155.4
15230.618417.82165
15330.218517.42174.6
15429.8186172184.2
15529.418716.62193.8
1562918816.22203.4
15728.618915.82213
15828.219015.42222.6
15927.8191152232.3
16027.419214.62242

I’m not writing to merely repost something publicly available on the web. I’m writing because this chart is mathematically unjustifiable and is long overdue for a revision. Frankly, I don’t believe that any NFL GM with any background in math uses this chart for making trades. It’s a good idea, but it’s completely flawed. For example, it costs as much to move from pick 8 to pick 4 as it does to move from pick 4 to pick 3. The first pick in the 7th round is roughly 7 times as valuable as the last pick in the 7th round. To move from pick 19 to pick 18, it costs an early 6th round pick. But to move from pick 21 to pick 20? You’ll need a 4th rounder. It costs the same amount to move up from 18 to 16 as it does to move from 26 to 21.  You can trade for picks 33 and 58 and expect to get pick 18. Or you can trade 33 and 74 and get pick 21. Picks 102 and 103 combined are worth pick 82. Seriously; 2 early 4th round picks can’t even get you into the top half of the third round.

So, here’s my table, which I don’t claim is perfect, and I’ll probably make a few edits to it later, but is definitely and improvement on the original:

Pick Round 1
Value
Pick Round 2
Value
Pick Round 3
Value
Pick Round 4
Value
1395033764.265303.997141
2350834742.166296.298138.3
3313635720.767288.899135.6
428273670068281.6100133
5257337680.169274.6101130.5
6236638660.870267.8102128
7219839642.171261.2103125.6
820614062472254.8104123.3
9194741589.573248.6105121
1018484257374242.6106118.8
1117574355775236.8107116.6
12167344541.576231.2108114.5
13
159545526.477225.8109112.4
14152346511.778220.4110110.4
15145647497.479215.2111108.5
16139448483.580210112106.6
1713364947081205113104.8
18128250456.982200.2114103
19123251444.283195.6115101.2
20118552431.984191.211699.5
211141534208518711797.8
22109954408.586182.811896.2
23105955397.48717811994.6
24102156386.788173.412093
2598557376.38916912191.5
2695158366.290164.812290
2791959356.491160.812388.5
2888960346.99215712487
2986161333.793153.412585.5
3083562328.89415012684
31810.563320.295146.812782.6
3278764311.996143.812881.2

Pick Round 5
Value
Pick Round 6
Value
Pick Round 7
Value
Extra Picks (compensatory)
Value
12979.816146.519326.522515.1
13078.416245.81942622614.85
1317716345.119525.522714.6
13275.616444.41962522814.35
13374.216543.719724.522914.1
13473.9166431982423013.85
13572.616742.319923.623113.6
13671.316841.620023.223213.4
1377016940.920122.823313.2
13868.717040.220222.423413
13967.517139.52032223512.8
14066.317238.820421.623612.6
14165.117338.120521.223712.45
1426417437.420620.823812.3
14362.917536.720720.423912.15
14461.8176362082024012
14560.717735.320919.6
14659.617834.621019.2
14758.61793421118.9
14857.618033.421218.6
14956.618132.821318.3
15055.718232.221418
15154.818331.621517.7
15253.91843121617.4
1535318530.521717.1
15452.11863021816.85
15551.318729.521916.6
15650.51882922016.35
15749.718928.522116.1
15848.91902822215.85
15948.119127.522315.6
16047.31922722415.35

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