Clipboard Kings: Assessing the 49ers QB Depth

PART 9 IN A SERIES:

We hear it every year at this time, the backup quarterback is one of the most important positions on the roster.  Whether it is or not is a debate for another time, but it’s under the microscope now more than ever as teams try to justify how many resources, or in some cases how few, they’ve committed to the position….and you hear reports of young QB’s who are just “killing it” in their mini-camps.

The position can either be rendered completely irrelevant: Jim Sorgi never getting his uniform dirty in meaningful situations backing up Peyton Manning from 2004 – 2010.  Or franchise altering: The Colts never addressing the position appropriately, team goes 2-14 without Manning in 2011, total housecleaning, first pick, Manning moves on, Andrew Luck now in place. 

I thought it would be interesting to take a look at every team’s backup situation.  These aren’t grades, just an overall look at the total sum of each team’s outlook if their starter were to go down.  I’ll consider the immediate situation and the longer-term picture.

I’ll go in order of my NFL Power Rankings 1.0, published May 10th.

Today, the San Francisco 49ers:

Starter: Alex Smith (8th year)

Projected Backup: Josh Johnson (4th year)

This may be a surprise to some in light of the fact that Jim Harbaugh drafted Colin Kaepernick in the 2nd round last year, but we’ll get to that.  Johnson may be an unknown to some, but he has a history with Harbaugh.  A four year starter at the University of San Diego, Johnson’s first 3 seasons came under Harbaugh’s tutelage.  Check out his career stats at USD: 9,700 passing yards, 68% completion pct, 113 TD’s, 15 INT’s.

I’m not kidding….. look it up.  Oh, and he also ran for 1,800 yards and 19 scores and clocked a 4.44-second 40 yard dash at the combine.  He’s 6′ 3″, 205 lbs and has an extremely strong arm.  His issue in limited opportunities has been turnovers.  10 INT’s to just 5 TD’s, but he’s never really had a chance to play significant minutes.  He’ll know Harbaugh’s system, and more importantly he’ll know his coaching style.  It’s certainly not for everyone.  I’ve been intrigued by Johnson for years.  I think he has a chance to develop into an interesting player; and NFL starter.  San Francisco provides his best opportunity to do so.

Verdict: High Upside

Projected 3rd QB: Colin Kaepernick (2nd year)

I didn’t like Kaepernick coming out of Nevada.  He was simply too awkward with his motion and too protected by Chris Ault’s pistol-spread system.  He struggled with accuracy taking snaps from under center at the Senior Bowl, he struggled with accuracy in camp and preseason during his rookie year, and reports out of the Bay Area this spring are that he’s still struggling mightily with his accuracy in mini-camps.  I just don’t think he has a chance to be anything more than a 3rd-stringer or situational package QB. If he doesn’t make a noticeable leap in progress this season, he could join a long list of 2nd round QB busts.

Verdict: Project, Potential Bust

Other contenders: Scott Tolzien (2nd year)

Tolzien had an outstanding career at Wisconsin, but he’s more of a game-manager than NFL prototype.  Given Kaepernick’s high draft status, he’s looking at another year on the practice squad, but could develop into a quality backup if the team were to give up on Kaepernick in year 3.

Summary:

The 49ers are in good hands with Harbaugh at the helm.  He worked wonders with Smith last year, and now he has former protege Johnson in the fold.  Kaepernick still has a chance to develop but needs to show something soon.  If he doesn’t, look for Harbaugh to dip into next year’s deep crop of potential draftable QB’s to find his long-term successor to Smith. 

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