Coaches On The Hot Seat: 2012

Coaching changes have become the rule in the NFL; stability is the new exception. There were 8 new head coaches hired this winter. Not quite enough to challenge the record 11 switches that were made after the 2008 season, but significant still. That’s a 22% turnover rate, if you’re scoring at home.

Only 8 NFL head coaches have held their current post for more than 5 years.

Why so much volatility? Blame parity, the very concept that makes the league so competitive is also the fuel for impatient owners to look for that lightning-in-a-bottle answer that will propel their team into the playoffs. Like no other sport, professional football has a structure in place that makes it possible for a team to turn their fortunes around in one year. Have a great draft and make some splashy free agent signings and expectations are high. Fail to capitalize on those moves, and the head coach becomes an easy fall guy.

Here’s a look at my early list of Top 5 NFL Coaches On The Hot Seat:

Leslie Frazier, Minnesota Vikings: The Vikings are focused on building a new stadium, and that brings added pressure and motivation to make a big splash. Zygi Wilf has shown impatience in the past, and almost pulled the trigger on Frazier after he went 3-13 in his first season at the helm. Another year like that and he’ll surely be gone. The development of 2nd year QB Christian Ponder could be the key.
Ken Whisenhunt, Arizona Cardinals: Since Kurt Warner retired two years ago, the Cardinals have gone 13-19. Most damning, Whisenhunt’s hand-picked QB Kevin Kolb looked like a bust in his first year. Give Whisenhunt credit for coaxing an 8-8 effort out of the Cards last season, but the NFC West is fast-improving. If Kolb or John Skelton fail to solidify the QB position and Arizona posts a losing record, Bill Bidwell could bid farewell to the only coach to take them to a Super Bowl.
Mike Mularky, Jacksonville Jaguars: He’s new on the job, but the pressure is on for Mularky to perform better than previously when he went 14-18 in his two year stint as head coach in Buffalo. New owner Shahid Khan has already shown a propensity to meddle in personnel choices, and the Jags are widely viewed as a team likely to move to L.A. when that stadium is finally built. Attendance in Jacksonville is meager. Surely Khan was hoping for a bigger name replacement when he chose to oust Jack Del Rio last year.
Rex Ryan, New York Jets: He brought this on himself. He attracts and welcomes drama and bravado, and if you can’t win at a high rate to back that up you end up just looking……silly. Huge setback for his trademark defense last year, and the QB situation is a potential disaster. If it all falls apart this year I don’t see any way he survives.
Lovie Smith, Chicago Bears: He’s like the proverbial cat with nine lives, staving off constant offseason speculation during his 8 year tenure. This year there are no excuses. Jay Cutler looks like a QB ready to make the jump into that elite category, and now he has weapons around him. I think the Bears will be pretty good this year, but if they should falter it might be time for a change at the top.

Other head coaches whose seats are warm: Buffalo’s Chan Gailey, Washington’s Mike Shanahan, Cleveland’s Pat Shurmur

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