Seattle Seahawks Offseason Analysis: Draft Grades and Roster Projection

OVERVIEW:

Pete Carroll and John Schneider blew into town  two years ago, promising to reinvigorate an underwhelming talent base which had deteriorated from it’s 2005 Super Bowl panacea after numerous draft misfires by former G.M. Tim Ruskell.  Now, of the 90 players currently on the team’s roster, only 9 remain from those days.  The Seahawks new braintrust has a very specific idea of how they evaluate players, and their grading system is based primarily on three factors: Speed, Length, and Scheme Fit.

They certainly aren’t afraid to turn over any and every rock in search of talent.  In 2008, their secondary was one of the smallest in the league, incapable of forcing turnovers or making plays.  Now, the bigger/faster/stronger quartet of Earl Thomas, Kam Chancellor, Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner is being called one of the best in the league.  Only Thomas was a no-brainer, high draft pick.  Chancellor and Sherman were both 5th round picks, Browner had been toiling in obscurity in canada.  Now, only Sherman has yet to be selected to a Pro Bowl and there are many who feel he would have garnered consideration last year as a rookie had he been handed the starting spot earlier in the year.

Carroll and Schneider have taken their share of criticism because they don’t cowtow to the mainstream, and the Mel Kiper’s of the world don’t agree with their every move.  Yet 16 players remain of the 18 they selected in their first two drafts, and most outsiders are now starting to acknowledge that the Seahawks young roster is one of the more talented and promising in football.

This year is no different.  The Seahawks are getting skewered over their seemingly incomprehensible selections of Bruce Irvin in the first round and Russell Wilson in the third…. and they couldn’t care less.  In fact, they welcome the scrutiny.  They love filling the roster with players who have a chip on their shoulder, and they certainly have plenty of those.

In their third year, however, all that talent acquisition will need to translate better to the standings.  After a pair of 7-9 seasons, this could be a team ready to challenge in the NFC.  If they do, the experts may begin to accept their unique way of doing things.  If not, the fist-shaking will only grow more intense.

Here’s a look at their offseason as a whole, and a projection of what the 53-man roster should look like when all is said and done.

FREE AGENCY:

KEY LOSSES:

• Atari Bigby, S, signed w/ San Diego
• John Carlson, TE, signed w/ Minnesota
• Robert Gallery, OG, released, signed w/ New England
• David Hawthorne, LB, signed w/ New Orleans

KEY ARRIVALS:

• Jason Jones, DT, signed as UFA (Tennessee)
• Matt Flynn, QB, signed as UFA (Green Bay)
• Barrett Ruud, LB, signed as UFA (Tennessee)

Flynn is obviously the arrival who could make the biggest impact.  Last year, Tavaris Jackson had four opportunities to lead the offense on final drives to either tie a game or take the lead, and he was 0-4.  Better overall QB play could have put the Seahawks squarely in the playoff picture.  Flynn  should provide that. Don’t underestimate the signing of Jones, however.  The Seahawks will let him do what he does best, and it’s something they severely lacked last year…. the ability to penetrate and get to the passer from inside.  After playing out of position last year at DE, Jones signed a one-year deal to prove his worth.  He could be in line for a nice payday a year from now.

DRAFT GRADES: 

1st round: Bruce Irvin, DE, West Virginia: (6-3, 248) The Irvin pick was widely panned on draft day.  But he was unquestionably the most talented pure pass rusher in the draft.  The questions surround his ability to play every down.  The Seahawks don’t care.  They plan to use him as they did Raheem Brock, in nickel packages and other situations, between 40-50 snaps a game.  Brock had 12 sacks in that role the last two seasons.  With Irvin’s elite get-off, he could get that in his rookie year alone.  While he’s not an ideal fit in many systems as a true DE or OLB, he’s the prototype for what Carroll terms the LEO in his scheme.  Sound familiar?  Chris Clemons had a similar knock against him, yet he’s thrived as LEO the last two seasons, racking up 11 sacks in each.  Clemons, soon to be 31, is a free agent in 2013.  Irvin was drafted with a specialized role in mind this year, but also as Clemons long-term successor.  I hated this pick at the time, but taking everything into account now I feel much differently about it.  Grade: B+

2nd round: Bobby Wagner, ILB, Utah State: (6-0, 241) It’s thought that the Seahawks had Mychal Kendricks rated slightly higher, but he went one pick in front of them after the Eagles traded up into that spot.  Wagner was a nice consolation prize.  He’s versatile enough to play all 3 LB positions, but the Hawks want him in the middle to replace the departed Hawthorne.  Wagner is a huge upgrade in the speed department, yet he takes on blocks well and has a knack for churning his way through the mess inside on running plays.  His sideline-to-sideline range gives the team something they lacked, and will allow them to be more aggressive turning OLB K.J. Wright and their DB’s loose on blitzes.  Very solid pick who should start for a long time in the league. Grade: A

3rd round: Russell Wilson, QB, Wisconsin: (5-11, 206) This pick is getting a lot of attention lately.  Wilson was so impressive at rookie mini-camp that Carroll declared he would compete with Flynn and Jackson for the starting job.  At just a hair under 5′ 11″ there has been some heated debate about whether this kid can succeed in the NFL.  Yet he’s only an inch shorter than Drew Brees, and he does a lot of the same things well that’s allowed Brees to be so prolific.  Wilson is not your typical shorter QB; he has unusually large hands and long arms, and his throwing motion is right over the top.  He has a very strong arm, and delivers a beautiful spiral.  He’s accurate, athletic (legit 4.5 speed in the 40) and a charismatic, smart leader.  You’ re hearing this a lot… “If anyone can make it at his size, he can.”  I believe Flynn will start this year, but unless he plays at a Pro Bowl level, Wilson will be the long-term answer at QB for this organization.  He better be good, because ultimately Carroll and Schneider’s jobs could one day depend on it.  Grade: B

4th round: Robert Turbin, RB, Utah State: (5-10, 222) Finding a worthy compliment to Marshawn Lynch out of the backfield was a priority, and Turbin is the perfect co-star in the Seahawks physical running game.  Everything they want to do offensively starts with the running game, and their lack of depth at the RB position was never more glaring than it was last year in Cleveland.  Lynch was unable to go after experiencing back spasms during pre-game warmups.  Leon Washington and Justin Forsett shared the load but didn’t do anything as the team lost an ugly, 6-3 game.  Turbin is a hulking, muscular presence who has surprising breakaway speed.  His one-cut-and-go style fits Tom Cable’s zone scheme to a tee.  Grade: A

4th round: Jaye Howard, DT, Florida: (6-3, 301) Howard stood out at the team’s rookie mini-camp. He’s similar to Jason Jones in that his best attribute right now is his ability to penetrate.  The Seahawks like to rotate their D-lineman liberally and use their strengths in different packages.  Howard next to Jones on passing downs could be a pretty formidable combination.  Grade: B

5th round: Korey Toomer, OLB, Idaho: (6-2, 234) An athletic freak, Toomer may take some time adjusting to the NFL but can be groomed behind solid veteran Leroy Hill.  He’s also a special teams monster.  Grade: B-

6th round: Jeremy Lane, CB, Northwester St. (La.): (6-0, 184) The Seahawks like their CB’s tall and rangy, and Lane fits the bill.  He’s a special teams standout but shows enough coverage ability.  Will probably come down to a battle between him and Byron Maxwell, last year’s 6th round CB who the team felt was ahead of Richard Sherman in training camp last year before he was dinged up with injuries.  Grade: C+

6th round: Winston Guy, S, Kentucky: (6-1, 218) Guy literally played all four secondary positions during his tenure at Kentucky.  He’ll fill the role that Kam Chancellor played in 2010 and Atari Bigby held last year, that third safety/nickel linebacker.  This kid can cover… and he can really hit.  He’s another exemplary special teams standout as well.  The Seahawks have a stated desire to have the best special teams in the league.  Picks like this really help.  Grade: A

7th round: J.R. Sweezy, OG, N.C. State: (6-5, 298) Interesting project here.  Sweezy wasn’t very productive as a defensive lineman for the Wolfpack, but the coaching staff there suggested to the Seahawks that he could be an outstanding guard.  Tom Cable flew down and worked him out privately, and came away thinking the same thing.  An outstanding athlete and extremely strong for his size, Sweezy will attempt to make the conversion.  Probably a practice squad player but one to watch.  Grade: C

7th round: Greg Scruggs, DE, Louisville: (6-3, 284) Decent athlete with good work ethic.  Hard to see how he will fit in on the current roster but a good enough athlete to provide some upside on the practice squad. Grade: D