2012 NFL Mock Draft Week 15 Update

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Robert Griffin III is Not-So-Quietly Skyrocketing up draft boards

For this 2012 NFL Mock Draft, I’m using mocking the draft’s draft order which is based on:

Unlike some other sites, no opinion goes into my draft order. It is all numerical fact. When putting this together, I use the strength of schedule based on games played so far. To keep it unbiased, the order is not considering the scenario that takes place because of playoff slotting (for instance, the Giants lead the NFC East but only have an 8-5 record).

Notes: Mohamed Sanu and Manti Te’o are reportedly returning to school. (I think Sanu should come out and I can’t see him improving his draft stock much next year, he’s N.F.L. ready.  Te’o has some refinement he needs so I don’t hate that for him, but I think some team in the top 12-15 is going to be disappointed he returned to school. I’m also leaving out redshirt sophomores not named Lamar Miller who is reportedly planning on declaring for the N.F.L. draft).

I’m also projecting that Landry Jones will go back to school (because he should).

check out our scouting report page, for all of our scouting reports on all of these players and many more.

1. Indianapolis Colts – 0-13 (.550)-Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford Cardinal

This is the easy and right pick to make here. Griffin is exciting, but Luck is extremely consistent and continues to pile up victories and stats year after year. Luck gave people time to over-analyze him by coming back for the 2011 College Football season and they have, but make no mistake he’s the better prospect, today, than Robert Griffin III and Matt Barkley are and he should be the first overall pick.

2. St. Louis Rams – 2-11 (.556)-Matt Kalil, T, USC

Another easy pick to make. Besides the Quarterbacks, Richardson, and maybe Claiborne, Kalil is the only really elite prospect in this draft class. Add that into the fact that Roger Saffold has had a down year and Jason Smith is approaching bustedom, this is another easy pick. Now Kalil is rumored to be heading bakc to school

3. Minnesota Vikings – 2-11 (.574)-Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State

Too high for this pick. We’ve compared Blackmon to Reggie Wayne in our scouting report, but I’ve also compared him to Michael Crabtree. What I’m saying about Blackmon is this: he can be a very good player in this league, but he’s not a top three pick to me. But the Vikings are in a tough position here unless they want to draft a cornerback third overall. I think positional value wins out here and they take Blackmon or Jonathan Martin over Morris Claiborne.

4. Carolina Panthers – 4-9 (.479)-Jonathan Martin, T, Stanford Cardinal

If the board shakes out like this there are four players I think the Panthers would consider here Morris Claiborne, Jonathan Martin, Alshon Jefferey, Quinton Coples. This is too high for Jeffrey with his poor season. I’ve already mocked them Coples and Claiborne numerous times so I’m going to go a  different roue to see how things might shake out. Martin isn’t an elite tackle prospect, but he’s a pretty darn good one. Jeff Otah hasn’t been able to stay healthy and Jordan Gorss is getting up there in age. I’m not sure Tackle is an immediate need though.

5. Washington Redskins – 4-9 (.479)-Matt Barkley, QB, USC

I’m mocking the Redskins Matt Barkley here because I’ve mocked them Robert Griffin III numerous times already and  I don’t want to rule out Barkley. I think the Redskins will prefer Griffin III though. He’s more flashy and has more physical tools.

6. Cleveland Browns – 4-9 (.497)-Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor

If the Browns continue to lose and end up drafting this high they have to consider Quarterback despite Holmgren’s philosophy of drafting quarterbacks late. Griffin has everything you look for in a quarterback prospect. Great down field accuracy, mobility, leadership, “clutch-factor”. He’s coming from a spread offense and even though he has high completion percentage and low interception numbers I still think he needs to continue to improve his decision making when he jumps up levels to the N.F.L, but he’s a good prospect who we at NFLMocks have had as a first rounder since August/September.

7. Miami Dolphins – 4-9 (.509)-Morris Claiborne, CB, LS

The Best player available here. Claiborne is not as physically gifted to me as Patrick Peterson, but there’s not too much of a difference, but Claiborne might be a more sound coverage guy. The Dolphins have young talent in the secondary with Sean Smith and Vontae Davis, but with the three big quarterbacks off the board they have to take the best player available.

8. Jacksonville Jaguars – 4-9 (.533)-David DeCastro, G, Stanford Cardinal

I know Jaguars fans think they need a WR, but DeCastro just seems like a Jaguars pick to me, especially the more they win. DeCastro is tough, smart, consistent. He’s a very good player. The best guard prospect in awhile and the Jaguars G.M. Gene Smith isn’t afraid of making a “reach” pick, or being unconventional as he continues to show year after year.

9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 4-9 (.550)-Zach Brown, LB, North Carolina

The Buccaneers have young talent all over the place so I’m not sure where to go with this pick, but Brown seems like a perfect fit for their defense. Right now they are playing Quincy Black and Gerald Hayes at their outside linebacker spots, which isn’t going to give you an elite defense. The Buccaneers could really use a guy who can really run and cover with all the receiving weapons the Saints run at them year after year.

10. Kansas City Chiefs – 5-8 (.479)-Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama

How good with the combination of Trent Richardson and Jamaal Charles be? Who needs  a quarterback when you can run  Charles and Richardson at defenses all day. Richardson is the best player on the board here by a mile so the Chiefs get a steal here, maybe the next Adrian Peterson.

11. Philadelphia Eagles – 5-8 (.491)-Michael Floyd, WR, Norte Dame

Not the typical Norte Dame wide receiver, but DeSean Jackson is a free agent. They have spent a lot of first round picks on their offensive line and I don’t think they will love Riley Reiff and I’m not sure where else to go. Quinton Coples doesn’t fit their system. Kuechly doesn’t either (Zach Brown might). Floyd would be a great complement to the speedy Maclin.

12. Buffalo Bills – 5-8 (.503)-Courtney Upshaw, LB, Alabama

This is the first time in awhile I’ve mocked Upshaw to the Bills but it’s blatantly obvious that the Bills must upgrade their pass rush this off-season or Chan Gailey is going to be out of a job after the 2012 N.F.L. season. The Bills also have to find a good wide recieving option in the second round.

13. Arizona Cardinals – 6-7 (.467)-Riley Reiff, T, Iowa

The Cardinals need a tackle, Riley Reiff is good value here and a smart pick He’ll have a productive N.F.L. career somewhere.

14. Seattle Seahawks – 6-7 (.485)-Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina

Good value here for Coples. I don’t love him early, but I think he has a nice career ahead of him. A Justin Smith like career. The Seahwks want guys who can play the pass and run and that’s Coples. Coples has all the ability in the world, will he put it together at the N.F.L. level? I think Carroll could get it out of him.

At this point, Ryan Tannehill has to be in the mix as well. The Seahawks aren’t that far away from being a real good team.

15. San Diego Chargers – 6-7 (.509)-Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama

The Chargers secondary has gotten beaten badly in more than a few games this year. Plaxico Buress ate them alive and the Jets passing offense is nothing special. Kirkpatrick is good value here.

16. Dallas Cowboys – 7-6 (.467)-Janoris Jenkins, CB, Northern Alabama

IF you watched the Cowboys-Giants game on Sunday night you knew this pick was coming. The Cowboys need to move on from Terrance Newman. The Cowboys have Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz to deal with for the foreseeable future (and Maclin possibly Jackson). Their current cornerback situation is not going to get it done.

 

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Tags: 2012 Nfl Mock Draft NFL Draft Robert Griffin III

  • Browns89

    Agree with RG3 for the Browns, Colt’s a tough kid but he cannot stretch the field especially throwing to his left. Browns have Atlanta’s pick in the 1st round, wish Kirkpatrick would be there but if not, would take Brandon Thompson to give Rubin & especially Taylor a rest. Would then take the underrated Andre Branch who is a true pass rushing RT End ( and can play with hand down or up) with our second round pick. Worst thing would be to reach for a wide receiver like Blackmon, who is not a good as A.J. Green or Julio Jones with our first pick or take Jeffery(cannot get separation) or Floyd(3 drinking incidents) with the pick from Atlanta. Later round picks Josh Oglesby ROT, Jarius Wright or Devier Posey WRs’, Jerry Franklin LB, Marquies Smith RE/LB, Leonard Johnson CB from Iowa State who shut down Blackmon and if they come out Ricky Wagner OT and Chance Warmack G Alabama.

    • http://NFLmocks.com Jesse Bartolis

      Thanks I knew the Faclons lost that pick, can’t believe I missed that.

      I agree with you on Blackmon going in the top five, but if the Browns win another game or two he could be worth the value.

  • tbslim

    No way do the Browns waste a first round pick on a QB. Trent Richardson is the pick instead of RG3. Pick up a QB in the later rounds and/ or a FA to compete with Colt. The Browns have far too many more pressing needs than QB. I agree with the Mike Adams pick. Tony Pashos has to go.

    • http://NFLmocks.com Jesse Bartolis

      You think A quartrback is a wasted pick?

      It is insanely difficult to find a quarterback to start in the N.F.L. that isn’t a first round player. And if it’s not in the first round it’s usually a high second round player.

      If you wanted to go through team by team you’d see how hard that is. If you need a QB take one in the first round.

      NFC East

      1st rounders:

      Eli Manning, Michael Vick

      Not first rounders: Beck, Grossman, Romo

      NFC North

      1st rounders: Cutler, Stafford, Rodgers, Ponder

      NFC South

      1st rounders: Newton, Ryan, Freeman

      Brees (High second round, nearly first rounder)

      NFC West

      1st rounders: Smith, Bradford

      non first rounders: Jackson (needs upgrading), Kolb (second round),

      AFC East

      first rounders:

      Sanchez

      Not first rounders: Henne/Moore (going to be upgraded), Brady, Fitzpatrick (should be upgraded)

      AFC North

      1st rounders: Flacco, Big Ben,

      Not first rounders: McCoy, Dalton (high 2nd round)

      AFC South

      1st rounders: Peyton Manning, Gabbert, Lockerr

      not first rounders Hasselbeck, Schuab

      AFC West

      1st rounders: Rivers, Tebow, Palmer

      not first rounders: Matt Cassell (needs to be upgraded)

      Maybe they have other needs, but make no mistake the majority of the good quarterbacks, and majority of all starting quarterbacks are drafted in the first round, and if not the early second round.

  • Browns89

    @tbslim

    If the Browns don’t take a QB with their 1st pick then they risk not getting Tannehill with 2nd round pick or Foles with their 3rd. Would take Richardson if they traded down to 9 or 10 but I’m not taking a running back with the 5th or 6th overall pick in this day and age of football. As a Buckeye fan I can say that Adams is way overrated, would rather take Barrett Jones in 2nd, Adcock or Ricky Wagner if he comes out in 3rd or Josh Oglesby in 4th.

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  • tbslim

    @Browns89

    Okay by me. Either one would be running for their lives like Colt and would not be an impact player for several years anyway. Colt is not the problem. He is a good QB and will prove the critics wrong once the Browns improve the players around him. Normally, I agree about picking a running back so high but we are talking about Trent Richardson. Backs like him don’t come along that often. How many years has it been since the Browns have had a stud RB? Every other team in the AFC North has one. In the AFC North, a back like Richardson is a must. I’m a Buckeye fan as well and Mike Adams is the real deal at RT. He has the size, athleticism and freakishly long arms that you desperately want in a RT. With him run blocking for Richardson on the right side of the line, the Browns will have huge weapon for opposing defenses not to mention Colt will be upright more often in passing situations.