NFL mocks Pick Against the Spread Week 13:

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Betting is Illegal in most places in the United States. Now that we got that out of the way. Here’s our thoughts on This week’s games. (Entertainment purposes only)

I’ll have the official picks out later in the week, but for now I’ll get you started with the primer and how many points I’m willing to give the favorites. So in essence I’ll be telling you what I’m going to pick at the end of the week unless

This past week (week 12) I started out strong going 3 for 3 on the Thanksgiving games and kept my hot streak going ending the week 11-4 against the spread Let’s see if I can have another good week.

Lines (from footballlocks.com) updated on Wednesday morning and I’ve made my Broncos pick official

Updated December 1st. Eagles Seahawks pick made, bills Titans pick becomes official, and point spreads updated for Thursday morning.

Updated December 3rd point spread and picks are final:

I’ve copy and pasted this directly from my primer earlier in the week, but added the picks to this new post.

I made the Seahawks pick Thursday morning so far 1 for on the week after a huge week last week. Let’s see if I can do it again.

Date & TimeFavoriteSpreadUnderdog
12/4 1:00 ETAt Buffalo-2Tennessee
12/4 1:00 ETAt Chicago-7Kansas City
12/4 1:00 ETAt Miami-3.5Oakland
12/4 1:00 ETAt Pittsburgh-6.5Cincinnati
12/4 4:05 ETBaltimore-7At Cleveland
12/4 1:00 ETNY Jets-3At Washington
12/4 1:00 ETAtlanta-1.5At Houston
12/4 1:00 ETAt Tampa Bay-2Carolina
12/4 8:30 ETAt New Orleans-9Detroit
12/4 1:00 ETDenver-1At Minnesota
12/4 4:15 ETAt San Francisco-13.5St. Louis
12/4 4:15 ETDallas-4.5At Arizona
12/4 4:15 ETGreen Bay-6At NY Giants
12/4 1:00 ETAt New England-20Indianapolis

 

Monday Night Football Point Spread

12/5 8:35 ETSan Diego-3At Jacksonville

Eagles at Seahawks

The first game in the week is the Eagles traveling to Seattle with both teams coming off a bad loss. The Eagles could still be without Maclin and Vick with the short week. I think the Eagles probably feel their season is over and I don’t expect a huge effort, and even if they do I think the Seahawks are better than most do the Eagles will probably be favored. I’ll take the Seahawks to cover anything more than three points, I imagine. If it turns out both Vick and Maclin can play, I’ll have to think about it.

It’s official I’m taking the Seahawks to cover the 3 points because I think they can even win this game outright.

 

 

New York Jets at Washington Redskins

The Redskins are totally unpredictable right now with Rex Grossman at the helm. Grossman is the girl with the curl so in any week he could win the Redskins the game by carrying the team to an improbable victory or throw four pick sixes and get blown out. I wouldn’t touch this game with real money either way, right now I‘m leading towards the Jets to cover even a fairly large spread (9 or so considering the Redskins are at home). The Jets have to root for the Broncos or Titans to start losing because of how many conference games they’ve lost but I think for awhile they’ll take care of their part.

 

As of Saturday night the jets are only favored by three points, which is more than enough for me to feel comfortable picking the Jets to cover the spread. I would not ever bet any game Rex Grossman plays so I wouldn’t advise it for you either, but I do think the Jets match up fairly well with the Redskins.

 

Chiefs at Bears

Oh boy the game of backup quarterbacks. I can see how the Chiefs can get up for a prime time Sunday game all teams (but the Colts and Giants) seem to get up for those games. But I don’t see them putting forth the same effort here on Sunday. I’ll be leaning towards the Bears who will give Palko problems all game to win by 6-9 points. Any more than that and I have to consider the Chiefs because the Bears offense is not very good right now.

 

This game spread is right in the wheelhouse of where I said I’d pick the Bears so I’ll stick with it, Bears to cover the lofty 7 points. Though it makes me really nervous. I just can’t see the Chiefs getting back up again for this week after a close loss to the Steelers.

Titans at Bills

The Bills showed some life on Sunday vs the Jets even though they were missing a ton of good players, but there are serious chinks in the armor. I’ve said for weeks in a row that I will no longer pick the Titans, but I’ve done it three weeks in a row, and here’s why I like them again. Chris Johnson is heating up and the Titans are not a team who will get away from the run when it’s successful. If Johnson plays well the Bills have no chance, they can’t stop anyone this year on the ground. The Titans also need this game to stay in the playoff hunt. I don’t trust their offense to win by 10 or anything, but they are traveling on the road against a team that just played well and has a fair record so they shouldn’t be getting many points at all.

 

I locked this pick early in the week.

The Bills are actually favored in this game. I could see Chris Johnson running right through and over this offense so I’m going to take the Titans and the points and think they could easily win outright.

Raiders at Dolphins

The Dolphins are going to keep this game close because their defense has kept many games close this year. The Raiders strength is running the football and the Dolphins will stop that. I’d imagine the Raiders will be favored by probably 3.5 points, if so I’ll be leaning towards the Dolphins here i think.

I thought the Dolphins at home would still be underdogs because the Raiders are a playoff bound team if they keep winning, but Vegas and the public have been so impressed with the Dolphins that they are actually favored by 3.5 points. That seems like a trap bet to me, but i”m still going to take the Raiders to cover the 3.5 points and think they could definitely win outright.

Bengals at Steelers

Even though I’m rooting for the Bengals to win his game, I’m not going to trust Andy Dalton against a Dick Lebau defense and the Bengals pass defense hasn’t been the same since Leon Hall got hurt. I think the Steelers could win this game fairly handily and will probably take them to cover anything less than a touchdown depending on reports about Big Ben’s finger, or any injuries during the week.

Troy Polamalu’s presence will also be paramount.

Polamaul will play, but the Steelers are favored by 6.5 points in Pittsburgh. I think the Bengals will keep it close though I don’t think they’ll win they should cover the 6.5 points they are getting. Bengals to lose by less than 6.

Falcons at Texans

Poor Texans. I have no idea what this line will be. The Texans are 8-3, but they are down to their third string quarterback, but have a good defense. The Falcons are on a roll through right now and while they are much better at home then they are on the road I think they are going to win this game outright. If the Falcons are getting any points at all I’m taking the points, and I’ll probably take the Falcons up to -3.5 after that I’ll really have to think about it.

Falcons are only underdogs by 1.5 points. The Texans defense is pretty good, but I’m not trusting T.J. Yates here. Falcons to win by more than 1.5 points

Panthers at Buccaneers

I’ve picked the Panthers almost every single week this year and every time he is an underdog. It’s working pretty well you should try it. The Buccaneers season is over, the Panthers are still fighting for self-respect. I think the Panthers win outright, but I expect them to be getting three points. Panthers here most likely.

 

All right so the Panthers are only getting two points. I don’t love the Panthers as favorites, but I think they’ll win this game. The Buccaneers are probably ready to pack-it-up and start again next year.

Colts at Patriots

I circle this game on my calender ever year. This year, bleh. Terrible. The Patriots will run up the score on anyone, Colts included. Patriots to win big I’ll give 14 points here, maybe more.

20 points is too many. That’s Major disrespect. Yes, the Colts are awful, but when the point spread gets that high it becomes a pride thing. I expect the best effort of the season for the Colts in Foxoborough and hopefully they’ll only lose by 14.

Ravens at Browns

This will be a tough game to pick because the Ravens have played down to their competition all year, but I think they’ll play better at the Browns. I don’t trust the Browns to score any points vs bad defenses so I can’t imagine them scoring a lot of points on the Ravens. I’ll have to see the line on this one, the Ravens have been maddeningly inconsistent.

The Ravens are only getting 7. I feel comfortable and confident enough that the Ravens will take care of business, the #2 seed is in sight

 

Packers at Giants

People think the Giants are good (they’re not that good, and I’m a Giants fan) so I’m not going to take the Giants here unless the line is double digits, if they win vs the Saints on Monday night (they won’t) the line will probably be lower than 10. The Giants have to prove to me they can win down the stretch here and not fold up before I believe it. Last year the Packers absolutely embarrassed the Giants in a game they both needed, I don’t think it will be like than this year, but the Packers should be touchdown or more favorites.

Green Bay will win this game easily by more than 6 points.

Cowboys at Cardinals

The Cowboys are overrated and the Cardinals are a bit underrated, which means I’m probably leaning towards the Cardinals here. The Cardinals have really put up good showings every time they have played a much better team, that trend should continue, especially if Kevin Kolb can come back because John Skeleton is terrible.

 

The cowboys are getting 4.5 which is right about where my line is to take the Cardinals at home against Dallas. There are a few teams that get the oppositions best effort every time: Dallas, New England, New York Teams. They always seem to get every teams’ best effort so I imagine the Cardinals will play hard and they can stay within four.

Broncos at Minnesota Vikings

There are teams that tend to struggle when they travel, but I don’t think of power running teams that play good defense as those kind of teams. The Broncos are playing better than the Vikings are and the Broncos could eat Christian Ponder alive. I’m stunned it’s a pick em, and I’m going to officially pick the Broncos here.

(it was a pick ’em on Monday, now it’s Broncos -1.

Rams at 49ers

The Rams can’t stop the run and they can’t score on the 49ers. My philosophy this year has been that the 49ers offense isn’t good enough to cover any large spreads, but I’ll give 10 points here vs the Rams. I can’t see anyway the Rams are close in this game as they continue to truck towards the #2 overall pick and their LT of the future (Matt Kalil).

13.5 points, Yikes that’s a lot.

The Rams have to put a big effort against their rivals right?  I just don’t trust the 49ers offense to be 14 points better than anyone. I’ll hesitantly take the Rams +13.5

Lions at Saints

Ndumkong Suh should be available for this game because he is likely to appeal any suspension. The Lions actually match up pretty well with the Saints. The Saints have vulnerabilities against the pass and the Lions can get after Drew Brees with just four. I don’t think the Saints will be huge favorites, but if they are I’ll be leaning towards the Lions.

Saints are -9 in New Orleans,and I think the Saints could run up the score here. I’ll take the saints -9,

Chargers at Jaguars

ESPN needs to have a talk with the N.F.L. why is it that Sunday Night Football gets to flex the games. Sunday and Monday should get to flex the games. Who wants to watch the Chargers with a hurt (? he has to be, right?) Philip Rivers go up against an awful Blaine Gabbert? Not me. The Chargers season isn’t done, but it might as well be as they should start looking for their new head coach soon. I’m going to be leaning towards the Jaguars here as long as the spread isn’t huge.

 

Chargers are more than 3 points better than the Jaguars. chargers -3 to win bigger than that