2012 NFL mock Draft: Andrew Luck to the Bengals?
This will be my final mock draft before the N.F.L. regular season starts. Don’t get too worked up over the order, worry more about the player selection and fit with the team. I’m using my preseason power rankings (if you’re worried about the order head on over to that page to let me know how much of an idiot I am).
1. Cincinnati Bengals-Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford
This is a no-brainer. I think there are a few teams who would not select Luck if they were drafting first, Carolina Panthers, Tennessee Titans, and then a team like the Falcons, Giants, etc that had catastrophic injuries and had a terrible season. Even then though in those situations the team not needing a franchise quarterback is likely to hold the first pick hostage until someone gives up the world to move up and take Andrew Luck. A team that feels it has it’s franchise quarterback already, but is picking first for whatever reason. You could say they would be “un-LUCKy”. Someone, please stop me from making any more lame Luck puns. That’s the last one, I promise. Though there will be many, many more of those on the web from now until after Luck is drafted.
One of those teams is not the Bengals. The Bengals would not pass on Andrew Luck for Andy Dalton, especially if they are picking first because that means Dalton wasn’t impressive this year. I know he deserves the number one spot and all, but how boring is a foregone conclusion. I want some mystery and intrigue with the first pick.
2. San Fran 49ers-Landry Jones, QB, Oklahoma
Let’s mix this up a bit. I know Barkley is the popular pick to be the second quarterback off the board, but why can’t it be Jones? He’s going to put up huge numbers. He has good prototypical quarterback size and has a N.F.L. arm. Why can’t he be in the conversation for the second overall pick to a quarterback needy team. If the 49ers are picking second, (and with their weak division schedule I doubt that they are picking THIS high), they will take a quarterback. Kaepernick is an excellent developmental prospect, but he’s not a top Landry Jones/Matt Barkley caliber of prospect.
3. Cleveland Browns-Alshon Jeffrey, WR, South Carolina
The addition of Jeffrey would give Colt McCoy a legitimate chance at succeeding as a top N.F.L. Quarterback at some point in his career. McCoy has shown a lot more a lot earlier than I expected him to. No one doubts his leadership abilities, and he clearly has N.F.L. talent. But the medicore receiving core they have in Cleveland will not let McCoy develop fully. A play-maker of Jeffrey’s talents will do a world of wonders. Imagine a starting WR tandem of Greg Little and Alshon Jeffrey. Now, we’re getting somewhere.
4. Miami Dolphins-Matt Barkley, QB, USC
Right after the draft, I ranked the Dolphins as the worst team in the league and I got hammered. But since then there are a lot of people who have actually come around on that. (Walterfootball.com has them selecting first in one of their mock drafts fairly recently, and an NFL.com writer: pretty sure. Can’t find the link. Could have been Yahoo, it was a major outlet) wrote about how the Dolphins had the worst off-season. My point is: I think the Dolphins are going to be bad. Luckily for them, if they are really bad they’re going to get a real quarterback of the future. Not a pat White or Chad Henne. Three quarterbacks with the first four picks? Yuck. How boring.
5. Washington Redskins-Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State
I was debating here between an offensive dynamo like Blackmon or a cornerback. Both positions need an upgrade and an infusion of young talent. As we get closer to the draft I’ll take into consideration the history of coaches and general managers because there is a tangible difference in how mock drafts shake out when that happens, but right now I’ll give the Redskins and Rex Grossman/John Beck more offensive weapons. The Redskins are again in a position where they are not good enough to do anything special and not bad enough to grab their franchise signal caller without a significant reach.
6. Denver Broncos-Matt Kalil, OT, USC
On second though I probably should have given the Redskins Kalil to give them two franchise tackles with Williams and Kalil. I’ll do the same instead for the Broncos. I know they just drafted Orlando Franklin and he’s looked pretty good, but they could kick him into the inside if they grabbed a talent as good as Kalil. Kalil is the second best player available here and a steal for the Broncos. A player they shouldn’t pass up for other more dire needs.
7. Carolina Panthers- Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina
I’ ve been lead to believe that if at first you don’t succeed try again. The Panthers had a big swing and miss with DE Everette Brown (who cost them a first round pick), but they can’t let them deter them from taking the best player available. The Panthers have a lot of young talent, but not at the defensive end position. This isn’t really a hard pick at all.
8. Buffalo Bills-Brandon Jenkins, DE/OLB, Florida State
I’m all about the Brandon Jenkins. Expect a huge season from this explosive pass rusher. Unless Shane Merriman is really the answer for the Bills they’re going to need more help at pass rusher. Scratch that. Even if Merriman is a big answer for the Bills they still need more pass rushers. The other starting LB is Chris Kelsay. And he’s awful. He can’t cover, rush the quarterback, or play the run well in space. But other than that, he’s pretty good. He tries hard. Jenkins would just continue to add to the talent of this defense. The Bills believe in Chan Gailey’s offensive mastery, and will try to build up a championship caliber defense first. They also hope that one of the top quarterbacks is available here. Watch Jenkins stock soar this season.
9.Tennessee Titans- Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina
Finally, they can now get rid of the idiot Cortland Finnegan.
10. Jacksonville Jaguars-Jeff Fuller, WR, Texas A and M
Don’t love this pick and I’ll be playing with this pick a lot more as we continue into the college football season. I don’t think the Jaguars will go to the trenches again this year with their first round pick. I was really leaning cornerback here, but moved away from that as well. In all honesty, the Jaguars are one of the hardest teams to forecast for the mock draft. They have little interest in what draftniks and pundits think of players, and rely solely on their own evaluations (as all teams claim to, but few make as many ‘surprising’ picks as the Jaguars seem to make every year).
11. Minnesota Vikings-Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama
Question: When do you have enough quality cornerback for the NFL. Answer: You don’t. The Vikings are talented at cornerback, but they are not fully satisifed at that position yet, especially playing in the N.FC. North with the Green Bay Packers who can really spread the team out. The other obvious pick and perhaps more common pick would be to go with OT Jonathan Martin here. But that’s too boring for me and I think with Winfield’s age, Griffin’s injury problems, and Chris Cook still developing cornerback is as big a need as any other position. Plus they did just sign Charlie Johnson to a sizeable six year deal.
12. Arizona Cardinals-Jonathan Martin, OT Stanford
Second easiest pick to make in this entire mock draft. The Cardinals have an awful line situation that needs to be rectified if they want to give Kolb a fair chance to become a franchise quarterback. Time will tell, but my early presason thoughts are that the Cardinals have the worst offensive line in the entire league.
13. Oakland Raiders- Alfonzo Denard, CB, Nebraska
Do the Raiders generally choose speed over other attributes? Yes. Is it he only criteria they use? No. Well, maybe. Denard is the best player available here at this point, even if he’s not the fastest. He’s a good pick for the Raiders and the press coverage reliant defense. Whew too many cornerbacks coming off the board at this pint in my mock. That will most likely have to be adjusted as I move forward. The Raiders are a quarterback away from being serious contenders in the N.F.L, but it appears they think Pryor could be the answer.
14. Seattle Seahawks-Ryan Tannenhill, QB, Texas A and M
Quarterback reach time. Quarterbacks always go higher than they should. At this point it appears that Tannehill and Robert Griffin are the front runners for the fourth quarterback to be drafted. If Griffin continues to impress as he did this past weekend he’ll continue to shoot up draft boards.
15. Dallas Cowboys-Michael Brewster, C, Ohio State
A lot of times the Cowboys draft the Best Player Available, other times like in 2009, they draft for need. An interesting thing has happened with the Cowboys lately: their offensive linemen are getting smaller. The Cowboys had long been massive offensive linemen that were impossible to move, but slowly the Cowboys have transitioned into more athletic, mobile offensive linemen. Derrick Dockery is the largest of the offensive linemen and he is under 330 pounds. Tyron Smith is about 310. Anyway, Phil Costa might be the answer for Dallas at center, but if he’s not Michael Brewster will be. Five years ago I wouldn’t mock them a lighter offensive linemen, but the Cowboys have seemingly undergone a core organizational/philosophical change.
16. Kansas City Chiefs-Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama
This could be a little late for Richardson, but if he’s available here the Chiefs shouldn’t pass on him. Richardson is considered many a better prospect than Mark Ingram and he is more explosive. Thomas Jones can’t play forever and Jamaal Charles needs a complement. I didn’t plan on giving the Chiefs a running back when I started writing this mock draft, but they just can’t pass on a talent like Richardson at 16.