Heading into the draft, NFLmocks decided to battle the experts to see how we would stack up vs the experts. We each took a different popular analyst to compare picks. We used the Huddle Report’s scoring system, which is 1 point for each correct player in the first round and an additional two points for each player that ended up with the team (32 players=32 points. 2 additional points for each right team 64. 32 +64=96 possible points). I told you all good or bad we would share our final scores with everyone: Here are the results for those who took the challenge. (Mackenzie also designed his own challenge and will have to put out his own grades based on his system)
Correct picks: 5
Newton, Marcel Dareus, A.J. Green, Anthony Castanzo, Jimmy Smith (15)
Not picked in the first round: Ryan Mallett, Akeem Ayers, Andy Dalton, Da’quan Bowers, Marvin Austin, Justin Houston (32-6=26-5 (for the correct picks) equals 21.
21 + 15=36
Nick’s Best pick: Calling Jimmy Smith to the Ravens when most people thought he was a lock for the Eagles was an impressive pick.
Nick’s Worst pick: Ryan Mallett to the Dolphins was a pick that was very far off. It made sense, and it was a popular mock pick, but Nick was off by two rounds with this one.
Correct picks: 5
Newton, Green, Peterson, Tyron Smith, J.J. Watt.
Players Not Drafted in first round:
Bowers, Austin, Rudolph, Ayers, Houston, Aaron Williams (32-6=26-5 correct players=21)
Best pick: J.J. Watt, I guess. Most thought that Texans would go Rush linebacker, but that didn’t happen. J.J. Watt/Cameron Jordan were two other very popular picls.
Worst pick: Marvin Austin was mocked to the Saints, but that wasn’t really a bad pick. Kiriwan had what I would call a “standard mock” most of the consensus picks, maybe the Phil Taylor to the Chargers was a bit different, but nothing too outrageous.
Verdict: Tie NFL Mocks and NFL.com’s Pat Kiriwan.
Correct picks: 4
Newton, Tyron Smith, Pouncey, Adrian Clayborn
Best pick: Nabbing Adrian Clayborn was a good pick by Florio.
Worst pick: Florio mocked Kerrigan down to the Packers which was a weird pick. But as far as one that’s not in the round. Ryan Mallett to the Seahawks was the pick that was the furthest off.
Players Not drafted in the first round: 5
Da’Quan Bowers, Andy Dalton, Kyle Rudolph, Akeem ayers, Jabaal Sheard
32-5= 27-4=23 + 12=35
Correct picks: 4
Newton, Miller, Dareus, Green
Players not selected in the first round: 6
Bowers, Ryan Mallett, Houston, Rudolph, Austin, Ayers
Best pick: None! Sanchez got the first four correct. Getting Von Miller to the Broncos right was not an easy call.
Worst pick: Ryan Mallet to the Dolphins.
Final score: 34
Florio Beat Sanchez 35-34.
NFL mocks Sayre Bedinger vs Mel Kiper Jr.
D-Day (draft day) was so busy that I forgot to archive Sayre’s final mock draft, so I’ll have to use the Huddle Report rankings for his battle vs Mel Kiper Jr.
Sayre picks right: 7 correct. Players in the first round 26. Total points 40
Mel Kiper Jr. Picks Correct: 6. Players right in the first round 28. Total points 40
According to the Huddle Report Sayre Beats Kiper on Tie Breakers (more picks correct).
NFL Mocks Jese Bartolis vs The Man, the Myth, the Legend: Mike Mayock.
Unfortunately, I didn’t archive Mayock’s final picks so I’m going to just use the Huddle Reports grades for his score.
Mike Mayock: 8 picks correct 27 total picks right in the first round, a total of 43 points!
Oh, Boy, that’s scary. That’s a lot more points than anyone else so far.
Picks Correct: 8
Newton, Miller, Dareus, Jake Locker, Tyron Smith, Adrian Clayborn, Mike Pouncey, Jimmy Smith
Best pick: Jake Locker to the Titans. I was one of a handful of people who accurately predicted that Jake Locker would end up with the Titans on draft day. Adrian Clayborn to the Bucaneers and Jimmy Smith to the Ravens were a bit more common picks than Locker to the Titans, though those picks were not popular either.
Worst pick: Blaine Gabbert to the Bengals. This was my worst pick because I’m just annoyed that I mocked him at 4 instead of A.J. Green and in turn I mocked Gabbert to the Cardinals costing me two more accurate picks.
Other worst pick: Da’quan Bowers to the Lions at 13th overall. Bowers was the last player in my first round mock to be selected, I didn’t want to believe the stories about the severity of Bowers knee injury, even though most of that information came out post-combine was because of the medical recheck. I should have bought in to Bowers falling out of the first round.
Players not selected in first round: Bowers, Andy Dalton, Akeem Ayers, Marvin Austin.
Total points: 44!
Winner: Bartolis Beats Mayock!
I’m as surprised as any of you are right now, but it happened. Even if I finish last in the Huddle Report the next 10 years, I’ll always have this year where I beat Mayock and finished 8th overall in the Huddle Report Mock Draft Score.
All in all, for at least this year, NFLmocks had a very respectable showing.
Nick Castillo was able to tie Pat Kiriwan of NFL.com
Josh Sanchez lost to Mike Florio by one point.
Sayre Bedinger was able to tie/beat Mel Kiper Jr.
And Jesse Bartolis was able to beat Mike Mayock, a David vs Goliath upset. (I’m just having fun, I don’t expect this to last and Mayock is still the draft king).
That’s a 2-1-1 record for NFLmocks or a 1-1-2 record if you don’t want to count The Huddle Report Tiebreaker. .
This year NFLmocks was as good, if not better than the experts at making mock drafts! It was fun and I liked this so we’ll probably do it again next year.
Oh also, feel free to check out one other mock draft: Bobo the monkey, which was a control mock draft. I gave Bobo the three most common picks for the Panthers, Broncos, and Bills on walterfootball’s mock draft database and then literally picked names randomly out of a hat (the 40 “most likely” players to be selected in the first round. I wanted to test the theory that there is no science to making mock drafts. And Bobo did terrible 1 pick correct and 23 total points (which would have been last in the Huddle Report scoring). Though there were 10 people who scored 30 or lower (2 correct picks and 26 right in the first round would give someone thirty points).
Ouch. NFL Draft Dog 4 of those 10 people scoring 30 or lower.
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