To Draft or Not To Draft a RB in 1st Round?
I was actually going to post this tommorrow morning, but I put a poll in it, not knowing the poll would show up on the site, which seemed out of place without posting this so here goes nothing.
I think one of the most controversial selections can make in the first round (unless you’re the Raiders) is taking a running back in the first round, especially in the top twenty picks. I’m not talking about the good Ol’ days when running the ball was essential to winning, I’m talking about now when a team (ahem Packers) can win it all without a real running game.
There are two basic philosophies of draft junkies such as myself about running backs in the first round.
Philosophy #1
Simply put, yes it can be worth it (more on that later).
Philosophy #2-Running Back is Not Worth a First Round Pick
This is a two part argument. The first part of the dissent centers on the argument that running backs can not make an offense go without a productive offensive line. Teams must first build up the trenches to run the ball effectively and then add a running back to augument that group. There is definitely credence to this thought process that an overpowering run blocking team can make any running back look good, though I think that argument is a bit too simplistic, it is not entirely invalud.
The second part or philosophy two is that very productive running backs can be found later in the draft.
Why, just this past year the league leader in rushing was an undrafted Free Agent (Arian Foster), and Michael Turner who was 3rd in rushing was a 4th round pick. There are many other stories of players who have productive seasons being drafted late in the draft: Bradshaw and Jacobs of the Giants (7th round and 4th round respectively) are both players who have over 1000 yard rushing yards in their career. Another player who was top 10 (well, almost he was 11th) in rushing that was drafted late was Peyton Hills in the 7th round.
And then even in the playoffs James Starks outrushed three different players who were drafted in each of the first three rounds (Mendenhall 1st round, Forte 2nd round, Greene 3rd round) So there are success stories in the N.F.L. of players who are drafted late that can rack up the rushing yards and produce in the N.F.L.
Which brings us back to Philosophy 1
But I think that’s misleading. Because like any position you can find picks late in the draft, but the bulk of good players are found in the first two rounds.
Just this year alone players who were drafted in the first two rounds who were top ten in rushing were: Chris Johnson (4th overall, 1st round), MJD (5th overall, 2nd round), Adrian Peterson (6th overall 1st round), Reshard Mendenhall (7th overall, 1st round), Steven Jackson (8th overall, 1st round), and Ray Rice (10th overall, 2nd round).
So we have Foster undrafted, Turner 4th round, and Bradshaw 7th round all in the top ten. The only player not mentioned in the top 10 is Jamaal Charles drafted in the 3rd round (a relatively high pick).
So 6 of the top 10 rushers were drafted in the first two rounds, while 8 of the top 10 were drafted in the first four rounds.
What about 1st round busts running backs?
Busts are always possible, let’s see how many busts there have been since 2000. Since it is generally considered a player needs three years we’ll look back from 2004 to 2008.
1st Round running backs:
2008-Darren Mcfadden, Jonathan Stewart, Felix Jones, and Reshard Mendenhall.
Busts: I don’t know if I would classify any of these players as busts. McFadden looked like he was bust-tacular before this season when he broke out and had a very good year that was limited by injuries (that’s why you give a player three years as a general rule).
Jonathan Stewart has been productive though he had a down year this season (he had 21 touchdowns his first two years)
and Felix Jones is the closest one to a bust, I think. I don’t know if I would use the word bust because he has been dynamic, but he only has 8 touchdowns in his career and has yet to reach a 1,000 yards in a season. Not worth a 1st round pick.
2007
Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch
Peterson has been great-he’s on pace to make the Hall of fame.
Lynch has been productive when he’s played, but he’s been too busy running people over, stealing tips from Applebees, and the like. I think when you have to trade a player for a fourth round pick 4 years into their career, it’s a bust for the team that drafts you.
2006:
Reggie Bush
Laurence Maroney
DeAngelo Williams
Joseph Addai.
People will call Bush a bust because he was drafted 2nd overall, but he’s been an integral part of the Saints successful passing attack. Sure he’s not what you hope to get with a #2 overall pick, but there are a lot of teams who would take Reggie Bush’s dynamic ability right now.
Williams and Addai are good solid players.
Maroney can be considered a bust, though he had some productive games or what not.
2005:
Ronnie Brown
Cedric Benson
Cadillac Willams
Brown has been good. Benson has been up and down (a bust for the Bears though), and Williams hasn’t been what people hoped, in large part because of injuries. Still if you want to say two busts I’ll take it.
2004:
Steven Jackson
Chris Perry
Kevin Jones
Jackson is a beast, but the other two are busts.
All in all there are most busts in the first round then you would like to see for a position that is supposed to be the easiest position to move from college to the N.F.L., but not much different then what most positions are…a couple of great players (Johnson, Peterson) some very good players, some solid guys, and some guys who don’t contribute.
The differnce is a Good running back can have a huge impact on a team, espeically a team that is well established or already built up in the trenches.
I don’t buy the notion that good running backs are a dime a doze in the later rounds, I do believe that the first two rounds are a very good time to pounce on a running back…assuming that the other pieces are already in place. I don’t think a team should draft a RB hoping it will turn the team around instantly (like the Bills did this year) because RB have shorter shelf lifes then most and have to have some semblance of an offensive line in front of them, but I do think that teams that are close to the top should really consider adding a running back early in the draft. Because a good running back Can make a huge impact (take for example the difference between the Colts running attack with Joseph Addai and when he was hurt this year).
So I guess I prescribe to philosophy number two:
Taking a running back in the first round is not a bad thing, provided that there is a competent team already, or a team that is young and on the verge of breaking through (like a young Qb that has been progressing nicely and is ready to take it to the next level), but for a lot of teams I admit picks can be spent elsewhere in the first round.